From http://english.itpcas.cas.cn/rh/rf/fs The Tibetan Observation and Research Platform (TORP) is engaged in the monitoring of these three aspects, 1) interaction between geological processes and climate, 2) high-resolution records and modern environmental processes, and 3) land surface processes and alpine atmospheric processes. Nam Co Monitoring and Research Station for Multisphere Interactions,CAS (NAMORS): The NAMORS (30°46'N, 90°59'E, 4730 m a.s.l), located in the southeast shore of the Nam Co, northern slope of the Nyainqentanglha Mts, was established by the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS in 2005. Research in the station focuses on multisphere interactions in the geo-system. Since 2005, research projects include meteorological and hydrological monitoring, atmospheric boundary layer observation, modern lake processes and environmental change, monitoring of glacier, snow and permafrost, atmospheric environment observation, monitoring of vegetation and soils and other geophysical monitoring.

The Wolf Creek Research Basin (drainage area about 195 km2) lies in southern mountainous headwaters of the Yukon River Basin in the subarctic region of northwestern Canada. The sub-arctic continental climate is characterized by a large seasonal variation in temperature, low relative humidity and relatively low precipitation. Mean annual temperature is in the order of -3°C with summer and winter monthly ranges of 5°C-15°C, and -100°C- -20°C, respectively. Summer and winter extremes of 25°C and -40°C are not uncommon. Mean annual precipitation is 300 to 400 mm per year with approximately 40 percent falling as snow. With a general northeasterly aspect, elevations range from 800 to 2250 m with the median elevation at 1325 m. Wolf Creek is situated within the Boreal Cordillera ecozone (Environment Canada, 1995) [occupying the southern Yukon and northern half of British Columbia, bordered by the Coast Mountains to the west and extends north from the Montane Cordillera to the Mackenzie and Selwynn Mountains beyond Dawson City and Keno in the Yukon; to the east, it reaches as far as the Peace River country] and consists of three principle ecosystems, boreal forest, sub-alpine taiga (shrub-tundra) and alpine tundra with proportions of 22, 58 and 20% respectively of the total basin area. Permafrost is present in locations on north facing slopes and there is sporadic permafrost throughout the basin, with prevalence increasing with elevation. Study plots are located within each of the ecosystems at elevations of 750, 1250 and 1615 m respectively. The forest site is relatively level with gently undulating terrain consisting of an alternating hummock and hollow landscape. The canopy is dense, consisting primarily of white spruce to heights of approximately 20 m, with some poplar trees to approximately 15 m. The subalpine taiga site is located on an east facing moderate hillslope of approximately 15 degrees. The hillslope itself consists of undulating terrain with numerous hummocks and depressions. The site is vegetated with shrub alder and willow to heights of approximately 2 m. The alpine tundra site occupies a windswept ridge top plateau. Approximately 50% of the site is relatively level, with the balance sloping at approximately 15 degrees to the south. Vegetation is sparse consisting of mosses, some grasses and lichens with occasional patches of scrub willow no more than 0.2 m high. Various research projects (University of Saskatchewan, Environment Canada) provide and maintain micrometeorological and hydrological instrumentation. Stations (links to real-time data): Alpine: http://giws.usask.ca/telemetry/WolfCreek/mobile/Alpinechart_mob.html Buckbrush: http://giws.usask.ca/telemetry/WolfCreek/mobile/Buckbrushchart_mob.html Forest: http://giws.usask.ca/telemetry/WolfCreek/mobile/Forestchart_mob.html

The purpose of this research project is to develop new biosensor for metal ions for water samples and to understand the effect of dissolved organic matters (DOM) on the biosensor. In particular, the biosensors are based on catalytically active DNA molecules (DNAzymes) that require specific metal ions for activity. This work will test a DNAzyme, that is 17E, for its use as a general metal sensor for common transition metal ions and the DOM effect. In addition, we are selecting new DNAzymes that are specific to important metals such as Ni2+. This work is conducted in collaboration with Dr. Scott Smith from Wilfrid Laurier University. This data set is collected for the project titled "Sensors and Sensing Systems for Water Quality Monitoring", which is a Pillar 2 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The dataset is from a high resolution climate change simulation that permits convection and resolves mesoscale orography at 4 km grid spacing over much of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The project aims to provide new insights into the future occurrence of precipitation-related extremes including drought, intense precipitation events and hazardous winter precipitation. Such extremes impact many sectors across Canada including agriculture, electrical utilities, engineering design, health, and insurance.

This project focuses on the evaluation of a DNA-based biosensor for aqueous mercury(II) under variable pH, temperature and competing ligand compositions. In particular, this study shows that the DNA-functionalized hydrogel sensor could be a better choice than the simple DNA solution for measuring mercury(II) concentrations in complex solutions and in natural waters.

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GeoNetwork record: www.gwfnet.net/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/caa25857-949b-43d5-8465-268302e609e9 Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-2

Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-2 Sample Collection Intestinal samples were collected from fathead minnows. Fish collected from the field were collected in minnow traps set overnight. All samples were collected with sterile dissection tools, and samples were immediately placed on ice prior to being transferred to a -80C freezer for long-term storage. 16s amplicon sequencing Total genomic DNA was extracted from guts using the DNeasy PowerSoil Kit (Qiagen Inc., Mississauga, ON). Concentrations were measured using a Qubit 4 Fluorometer and dsDNA HS assay kit (ThermoFisher Scientific, Waltham, MA). The V3-V4 variable region of the 16S rRNA gene was amplified using the Bact-0341 forward primer (CCTACGGGNGGCWGCAG) (Klindworth et al., 2013) and the Bact-806 reverse primer (GGACTACNVGGGTWTCTAAT) (Apprill et al., 2015). Samples were dual indexed to increase throughput of sequencing (Fadrosh et al., 2014). Samples were amplified with a 50 ?L PCR reaction including Phusion green polymerase (ThermoFisher Scientific) using a SimpliAmp thermal cycler (ThermoFisher Scientific) under the following conditions: initial denaturation at 98?C for 30s, followed by 25 cycles of 98?C for 30s, 58?C for 30s, and 72?C for 30s, with a final extension at 72?C for 10 min. PCR products were assessed for size and specificity using electrophoresis on a 1.2% w/v agarose gel and purified using the Qiagen QIAquick PCR Purification Kit (Qiagen Inc.). All purified products were quantified with the Qubit dsDNA HS assay kit and concentrations were adjusted to 1 ng/ ?L with molecular-grade water. Purified products were pooled, and libraries were constructed using the NEBNext? DNA Library Prep Master Mix Set for Illumina? (New England BioLabs Inc., Whitby, ON). Libraries were quantified prior to sequencing using the NEBNext? Library Quant Kit for Illumina?. Sequencing was performed on an Illumina? MiSeq instrument (Illumina, San Diego, CA) using a 2x300 base pair kit. Data processing Sequences were trimmed, cleaned, and demultiplexed using a combination of Trimmomatic (Bolger et al., 2014), USEARCH v11 (Edgar 2010), and QIIME1 (Caporaso et al., 2010). Paired-end sequences were merged with DADA2 (Callahan et al., 2016) in QIIME2 (Bolyen et al., 2019) after truncating the forward read to 280 nucleotides and the reverse read to 230 nucleotides in order to ensure maximum quality and percentage of reads retained. The DADA2 package generates sequence variants (SVs) that are used to infer different bacterial species. Chimeric sequences were subsequently removed, and SVs were compared to the Silva rRNA database release 132 for taxonomic identification in QIIME2. Samples were rarefied to a sequencing depth of 10,533 reads prior to downstream analyses. Statistical analyses were performed in PRIMER-e v7 (Auckland, NZ) and R (R Core Team, 2013).

The aim of this research project is to develop an in situ method to measure hydrological processes in frozen soils through the characterization of coaxial impedance dielectric reflectometry probe response to soil freeze-thaw events. Details on the collection process are outlined in the README file ‘LabInSituPermittivityTemperature.txt’ and in the publication https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-787-2019. This dataset will also support the project titled Transformative sensor Technologies and Smart Watershed (TTWS), which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

This dataset provides field data from boreal forests in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, that were burned by wildfires in 2014. During fieldwork in 2015, 211 burned plots were established. From these plots, thirty-two forest plots were selected that were dominated by black spruce and were representative of the full moisture gradient across the landscape, ranging from xeric to sub-hygric. Plot observations included slope, aspect, and moisture. At each plot, one intact organic soil profile associated with a specific burn depth was selected and analyzed for carbon content and radiocarbon (14C) values at specific profile depth increments to assess legacy carbon presence and combustion. Vegetation observations included tree density. Stand age at the time of the fire was determined from tree-ring counts. Estimates of pre-fire below and aboveground carbon pools were derived. The percent of total NWT wildfire burned area comprising of "young" stands (less than 60 years old at time of fire) was estimated.

This dataset provides estimates of wildfire carbon emissions and uncertainties at 30-m resolution, and measurements collected at burned and unburned field plots from the 2014 wildfire sites near Yellowknife, Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. Field data were collected at 211 burned plots in 2015 and include site characteristics, tree cover and species, basal area, delta normalized burn ratio (dNBR), plot characteristics, soil carbon, and carbon combusted. Data were collected at 36 unburned plots with characteristics similar to the burned plots in 2016. The emission estimates were derived from a statistical modeling approach based on measurements of carbon consumption at the 211 burned field plots located in seven independent burn scars. Estimates include uncertainty of field observations of aboveground and belowground combustion, as well as prediction uncertainty from a multiplicative regression model. To apply the model across all 2014 NWT fire perimeters, the final model covariates were re-gridded to a common 30-m grid defined by the Arctic Boreal and Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) Project. The regression model was then applied to burned pixels defined by a threshold of Landsat-derived differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) within fire perimeters. Derived carbon emissions and uncertainty in g/m2 are provided for each 30-m grid cell. The modeled NWT domain encompasses 29 tiles within the ABoVE 30-m reference grid system.

The ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model from NASA, 1 second (30 m) were downloaded from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory website (https://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gdem.asp). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model was developed jointly by the NASA and Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry. This global product has a 30 m resolution. The region of interest (Great Lakes) is cropped and data converted into formats ASCII and NetCDF. Data are then made available to the project collaborators on a private GitHub. Researchers interested in data can email Juliane Mai (University of Waterloo; juliane.mai@uwaterloo.ca)

The Great Lakes Runoff Inter-comparison Project (GRIP) includes a wide range of lumped and distributed models that are used operationally and/or for research purposes across Canada and the United States. Participating models are Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM- Hydro), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro), MEC-Surface & Hydrology (MESH), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), WATFLOOD, HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) The project aims to run all these models over several regions in Canada with Great Lakes, focusing on Lake Erie and Lake St.Clair as the initial domain (GRIP-E). This project will also focus on identifying a standard, consistent dataset for model building that all participants in the inter-comparison project can access and then process to generate their model-specific required inputs. This data set is collected for the project titled "Integrated Modelling Program for Canada (IMPC): Theme 1", which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The purpose of this research is to develop sensitive endpoints to detect impacts of wastewater effluent on fish health. We are examining the age and growth of rainbow darter (Etheostoma caeruleum) in the Grand River watershed to understand potential impacts of wastewater effluent. Aging fish helps us determine the potential time of exposure, and this can be used to link age and intersex, which is then used to for modelling. This data set is collected to support the project titled “Linking multiple stressors to adverse ecological response". This is a Pillar 1-2 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund

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The main goal of this research in Agricultural Water Futures is to investigate farmers’ current Best Management Practices (BMPs) adoption status and elicit their demand for monetary compensation to take certain measures. We pay particular attention to the factors and conditions that incentivize farmers’ adoption. The core part of the project is to design a discrete choice experiment which specifies a couple of hypothetical BMP options for pre-identified attributes. Choice experiment, as a stated preference method, along with other socio-demographic characteristics of the farmer and farm operation data, can recover estimates of farmers’ willingness-to-accept for taking up BMPs. This dataset is collected to support the objectives of Agricultural Water Futures in Canada: Stressors and Solutions: Work Package 3". Agricultural Water Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

Data Use Policy: AmeriFlux Legacy Policy (https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/data/data-policy/#ameriflux-legacy)

Data Use Policy: AmeriFlux Legacy Policy (https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/data/data-policy/#ameriflux-legacy)

This data set was produced to support the objectives of two projects. These are: 1) Legacies of Agricultural Pollutants (LEAP) funded by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and other international partners. 2) "Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

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The objectives of this project is to determine the bird species richness in mountain peatlands along an elevation gradient in the Upper Bow River Basin, and model how community composition changes along an elevation gradient. The purpose of this study is to understand what birds occupy mountain peatlands, and studying birds along an elevation gradient can be a proxy for how species richness and community composition will change with the changing climate. Also, bird watching is a very popular economic activity and this taxonomic group is a great motivator for those who care about habitat protection, but before we can protect birds in mountain peatlands, we need to know: what species are there, the number of species, and what influences their presence. This data set is collected for the project titled “Future Water for the Mountain West" [now Mountain Water Futures], which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

This dataset supports the Global Water Futures project.

Watershed urbanization and stormwater management (SWM) alter the hydrologic and geomorphologic processes of rivers. This purpose of this study is to characterize the bedload sediment transport regime of semi-alluvial gravel-bed rivers, and how it is affected by watershed urbanization and common SWM strategies. This project monitors the movement of coarse sediment and morphological change of three rivers in the Greater Toronto Area of Southern Ontario: Ganatsekiagon Creek (City of Pickering), Wilket Creek (City of Toronto), and Morningside Creek (City of Toronto). This study presents a means of monitoring bedload transport processes in restored rivers, and results can inform future river restoration designs. Funding for this data collection was provided by an NSERC Strategic Grant (STPGP 463321-14, Assessing and restoring the resilience of urban stream networks). This data collected will also be used to support the project titled "Linking Stream Network Process Models to Robust Data Management Systems for the Purpose of Land-Use Decision Support", which is funded under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

CRHM model projects outputs are generated from CRHM model simulations from study sites and include water balance variables and energy balance variables if applicable. CRHM outputs include full water balance variables: Rainfall, snowfall, evaporation from soil, evapotranspiration from forest canopy, blowing snow sublimation, snowpack sublimation, sublimation from intercepted snow from forest canopy, blowing snow transport, subsurface storage, surface depressional storage (if applicable), glacier storage (if applicable), streamflow discharge. CRHM outputs also include energy balance variables for melting snowpack (if applicable): Incoming shortwave radiation, incoming longwave radiation, net radiation, latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, ground heat flux, advective flux. CRHM outputs can be provided as hourly or daily time-step. These CRHM outputs are generated from physically-based hydrological model simulations that are set up for study sites, without relying on calibration. The latest CRHM version is used for model simulations. CRHM outputs are used to study hydrology and impact of changes in climate, glacier, and forest cover in the study sites.

CRHM model project outputs

Develop a systematic classification of Prairie watersheds based on similar geographic characteristics. The classification serves as a foundation for virtual watershed modelling within the project to investigate how watershed hydrology and biogeochemistry respond to environmental change.

Largely overlooked, microbial activity in soil persists under snow and ice throughout the winter transition and reaches its apex during thaw events. With the onset of climate change the active layer of soils will experience colder temperatures as it loses its snowpack insulation and consequently will undergo a higher frequency of freeze-thaw cycles. These changes will have downstream effects on the underlying geochemistry of soils and subsequently microbial composition and activity. The result leave unclear implications for the study of climate change, agricultural management, and biogeochemical cycling. Thus the objective of this research is to characterize the changes in microbial diversity and bioenergetics as a function of the changing environmental metrics of soil geochemistry and nutrient availability throughout the winter transition. Further the efficacy of pre-winter fertilizer amendments will be explored from concerns of decreasing potency as thaw events may allow for early onset microbial growth and consumption of the fertilizer. The data contained here is pursuant to the “Winter Soils Processes in Transition” project under the broader Global Water Futures program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

Code for the Fire and Ice project The includes the main input files, processing script and CRHM simulations files for the Fire and Ice project. The folders and files are generally organized in processing order.

Code for the Fire and Ice project

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The conditioned SRTM Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were downloaded from HydroSHEDS website (https://hydrosheds.cr.usgs.gov/index.php). It has a 3'' resolution which corresponds to about 90 m at the equator. The region of interest (Great Lakes) is cropped and data converted into formats ASCII and NetCDF. Data are then made available to the project collaborators on a private GitHub. Researchers interested in data can email Juliane Mai (University of Waterloo; juliane.mai@uwaterloo.ca)

Data available to project collaborators only on a private GitHub. Researchers interested in data must contact Juliane Mai at University of Waterloo (juliane.mai@uwaterloo.ca)

Hotıì ts’eeda Northwest Territories Spor Support Unit Publication https://nwtspor.ca/projects/contaminant-bio-monitoring-northwest-territories-mackenzie-valley-investigating-links

Datasets related document: Hotıì ts’eeda Northwest Territories Spor Support Unit Publication https://nwtspor.ca/projects/contaminant-bio-monitoring-northwest-territories-mackenzie-valley-investigating-links Also related: Ratelle, M., Laird, M., Majowicz, S., Skinner, K., Swanson, H., & Laird, B. (2018). Design of a human biomonitoring community-based project in the Northwest Territories Mackenzie Valley, Canada, to investigate the links between nutrition, contaminants and country foods. International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 77(1), 1510714. Ratelle, M., Skinner, K., Laird, M. J., Majowicz, S., Brandow, D., Packull-McCormick, S., ... & Hanning, R. (2018). Implementation of human biomonitoring in the Dehcho region of the Northwest Territories, Canada (2016–2017). Archives of Public Health, 76(1), 73. Laird, M. J., Henao, J. J. A., Reyes, E. S., Stark, K. D., Low, G., Swanson, H. K., & Laird, B. D. (2018). Mercury and omega-3 fatty acid profiles in freshwater fish of the Dehcho Region, Northwest Territories: Informing risk benefit assessments. Science of The Total Environment, 637, 1508-1517.

Numerical analysis of coupled water, vapor, heat, and stress fields are used to quantify the interactions between surface water and groundwater flow and thermal dynamics related to freezing-thaw and expansion-settlement in seasonally frozen areas. The model structure will be calibrated and validated using measurements, such as the moisture, temperature, and strains in the literature. Then, a virtual watershed approach will be used to test and modify the coupled framework, according to field observations and other well-recognized scientific findings. Finally, this modified model framework will be applied into typical permafrost area, to investigate thermo-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) dynamics, and predict possible damage-related processes in the context of climate change. This model framework and generated data will support the project titled “North Water Futures Big Data Platform and "Smart Watersheds". These are Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

Resources allocated to water management often fluctuate. As a result, the types and number of parameters (e.g., indicators for ecosystem health) being measured, in monitoring programs, are frequently reassessed according to management (or political) priorities, limits on budgets, and availability of human resources. The periodic need to refocus monitoring, conflicts with the need to maintain consistent, long-term indicators that are used to demonstrate changes to ecosystem health, or define ‘abnormal’ indicator measures. Conventional approaches are subjective, time-consuming, and non-standardized. This research developed and tested whether a new approach would reduce time and cost, while increasing objectivity and monitoring adaptability (to fluctuating resources). This project was funded by the Canadian Water Network, but the data collected will also support the research objectives of the project titled "Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds: Work Package 3". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund

https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0313 GeoNetwork record: www.gwfnet.net/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/00a9cee2-e654-45c0-b743-c5d58762c061 Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-8

The project provides metabarcoding data of multiple communities during a period of diluted bitumen exposure and subsequent remediation treatments in lake mesocosms. This project will use next generation techniques to understand the changes of lower trophic organisms (eg. phytoplankton, zooplankton) under variable remediation efforts following a simulated spill of diluted bitumen.

This dataset supports the Global Water Futures project Hydrological Processes in Frozen Soils, which aims to improve understanding of soil freeze-thaw processes and methods of interpreting soil moisture data from instrumentation in frozen soils.

This data is collected as part of the Pillar 3 GWF project "FORMBLOOM: Forecasting Tools and Mitigation Options for Diverse Bloom-Affected Lakes".

Because realized ecosystem services are directly consumed by people and clearly illustrate the link between ecosystem services and human well-being, the aim of this project was to distinguish potential and realized ecosystem services in Southern Ontario's landscape. The initial dataset used for this project was the Southern Ontario Land Resource Information System (SOLRIS) land use updated to 2016 for ecoregions 6E and 7E. Our analysis of these data yields a total potential value of the bundled ecosystem services of $19 billion per year for Southern Ontario. To estimate the value of the realized (or used) ecosystem services, the potential values are scaled by the corresponding relative use indices. The resulting value of the realized ecosystem services is $9.7 billion per year, that is, about 50% of the value of the potential ecosystem services.

In the absence of long-term environmental monitoring prior to and during resource development, identifying the extent of pollution is challenging but important for assessing risks to ecosystem health. Legacy pollution from Giant Mine in the Northwest Territories is a concern because while gold smelting operations ceased in the late 1990s, the fine, toxic dust arsenic trioxide dispersed into the atmosphere, potentially creating repositories in the surrounding landscape. Lake water surveys and the sampling of surficial sediment have identified a confined emissions footprint within a 30-km radius of the mine. However, these measurements may not capture the range of aerial deposition of emissions from the mine, particularly peak emissions released during the 1950s. Paleolimnological studies from far-field locations have shown evidence of arsenic enrichment coinciding with the timing of peak mine emissions during the 1950s, suggesting further research is needed to characterize stores of legacy metals derived from Giant Mine pollution. To address this need, as part of the Sub-Arctic Metal Mobility Study, temporal patterns of metals (arsenic, antimony, and lead) deposition and hydrological conditions were reconstructed from sediment cores collected from eight lakes along an 80-km transect northwest of Yellowknife, following the prevailing wind direction. Two sediment cores were collected from each lake by using a Uwitec gravity corer fitted with PVC tubes (86-mm internal diameter). These lake sediment cores provide further characterization of the Giant Mine emission footprint, and the depositional and post-depositional history of arsenic and other metals in sub-arctic lakes and their catchments.

Related Publication: Jasiak, I., Wiklund, J. A., Leclerc, E., Telford, J. V., Couture, R. M., Venkiteswaran, J. J., Hall, R. I., & Wolfe, B. B. (2021). Evaluating spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic, antimony, and lead deposition from legacy gold mine emissions using lake sediment records. Applied Geochemistry, 105053. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2021.105053

Jasiak, Izabela; Wolfe, Brent; Hall, Roland; Venkiteswaran, Jason, 2021, "Data for: Evaluating spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic, antimony, and lead deposition from legacy gold mine emissions using lake sediment records", https://doi.org/10.5683/SP2/TNYTQL

Data for: Evaluating spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic, antimony, and lead deposition from legacy gold mine emissions using lake sediment records

Lake sediment Geochemistry Metals Legacy pollution Giant Mine Yellowknife Northwest Territories

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The purpose of the research is to understand how the governance system for nutrient management in the western Lake Erie basin enables, or hinders, consideration of external drivers. Four interrelated objectives will be pursued to accomplish this purpose: (i) Characterize the existing governance system for nutrient management in the western Lake Erie basin and the scales at which it is operating; (ii) Identify external drivers of eutrophication in the western Lake Erie basin, and evaluate the extent to which they are accounted for in the existing governance system; (iii) Examine the extent to which the governance system affects consideration of external drivers; and (iv) If the current governance system hinders consideration of external drivers, explore ways of modifying the governance system. The research is motivated by a need for advancement in both water governance practice and theory. Practically, the causes and drivers of many water issues are partly, or wholly, external to those traditionally considered within the water sector, and assessing these external drivers will ensure that water officials can achieve their goals of addressing eutrophication in the western Lake Erie basin. Theoretically, the water governance literature has focused on overcoming challenges “internal” to the water community, and it is necessary to also focus on addressing challenges “external” to the water community. This dataset will support the project titled "Linking Water Governance to Economic, Social and Political Drivers" which is a Pillar 1-2 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund

Lalita Bharadwaj Point of Contact, Principal Investigator lalita.bharadwaj@usask.ca University of Saskatchewan Lori Bradford Point of Contact, Project Manager lori.bradford@usask.ca University of Saskatchewan Myron Neapetung Collaborator Yellow Quill First Nation Justin Burns Collaborator James Smith Cree Nation Kurt Belcher Student Jaclyn Porter Student

Data supporting the project "Agent Based Modeling as a Tool to Investigate Comprehensive Indigenous Health Impacts of Flooding\

Decision-making in the face of uncertainty, while involving multiple stakeholders with different interests and objectives that evolve over time, is a challenging element in environmental management with significant economic implications. Stakeholders will often have decision-support tools to help them make informed and thoughtful choices in a complex environmental decision-making context that accounts for value trade-offs and uncertainty. Our decision-makers currently don’t usually have full information to make decisions about the lakes and the watersheds and this is evident by the recurrent algal bloom issue in Lake Erie. The aim of this project is to co-create decision-support tools with stakeholders to make informed decisions to address this algal bloom issue at Lake Erie while focusing on Agriculture, Combined Sewer Over Flows (CSO) and Bypasses from Wastewater Treatment Plants. Note, that this research is part of the “Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds: Work Package 5". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The Subsurface Hydrogeological Connectivity and Groundwater Protection project aims to understand connections between deep and shallow groundwater systems to allow for improved protection of groundwater resources. These data have also been used in the Prairie Water project, which seeks to understand groundwater resources as part of the overall availability of water in the Canadian Prairies.

The purpose of this research project is to develop a new sensor for detecting nutrients in water, such as nitrate, nitrite, phosphate, ammonium, and silicate and to realize the automated real-time nutrients monitoring in remote water areas, by integrating this to-be-developed sensor into a machine. The sensor would be a capillary microfluidic paper based device. Before the water sample is detected by using the sensor, the water would go through a functionalized nylon filter to remove oil contaminant, in case the oil interferes with the nutrient detection. Note, the initial development of the nylon filter was partially funded by an NSERC Engage Grant. The sensor for this project is developed under the projects titled "Sensor and Sensing Systems for Water Quality Monitoring" and "Transformative technologies for Canadian water futures: big data platform and smart watersheds". These two projects under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The main goal of the project is to develop a module for the Cold Region Hydrology Model (CRHM) platform to predict surface and tile outflow from an agricultural field different climate conditions. We will use the CRHM platform to predict different hydrologic components, such as infiltration and storage in the soil, and will add a tile drainage component (working with the Core team). We use our model to predict the outflows in a large number of precipitation and snow melt events, at a site that is typical of conditions within southwestern Ontario. We will compare our outflow results to the observed edge of field outflow rates to calibrate and verify our model. Note, that this data set is collected to support the project titled "Agricultural Water Futures in Canada: Stressors and Solutions". Agriculture Water Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The main aim of this research is to understand the within-lake dynamics, transport, and retention of nutrients, particularly total and soluble reactive phosphorous, in Lake St. Clair. Specifically, this study will investigate the effects of Lake St. Clair in modulating nutrient loads from its three major tributaries: Thames, Sydenham and Clinton rivers. Note, that this data set will support the project titled "Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

This project will develop an integrated hydro-economic model to assess impacts produced by water changes (in quantity and quality) to the gross output of industries located inside the Great Lakes Basin (GLB). This work seeks to assign a dollar value to each cubic meter of water that is reduced or polluted, quantifying the direct effects to the disrupted industry/geography, as well as the spillovers to other regions. The three main goals are: 1) estimate inter-regional trade flows between lake sub-basins, 2) estimate sub-basin gross output, and 3) perform impact scenarios to assess the sensitivity of industries, or regions, to water disruptions. The construction of a quantitative description, linking water to gross output, is a necessary step to properly assess the cost of environmental policies to the GLB, especially because it is responsible for about 36% of the total Canadian output. This data set is collected to support objectives of the project titled "Integrated Modelling Program for Canada (IMPC): Theme 2", which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The overall objective of the project is to develop and deploy “smart” sensor networks for measuring metal and chemical/biochemical contaminants in water. A microfluidic device, with an integrated microwave resonator, will be used as the sensing technology for this project. Microfluidic devices are portable instruments that have the ability to handle small volumes of fluid, while microwave resonators can differentiate these fluids according to their permittivity and conductivity. As a result, such a device can be deployed for field testing and can be controlled remotely. Furthermore, the label-free nature of this sensor minimizes the sample preparation and user-involvement required for operation. This project will consist of the following four steps for device development: 1) understanding the fundamentals of portable microwave resonators, 2) optimizing the design of the microwave resonator for maximum sensitivity and accuracy, 3) training and testing the microwave resonator with different water samples using droplet microfluidic technology, and 4) designing a device that can be scaled-up and portable. The sensor for this project is developed under the project “Transformative technologies for Canadian water futures: big data platform and smart watersheds”. This project is under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0196 GeoNetwork record: www.gwfnet.net/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/71ce1c86-468a-4c89-a8dc-fa26915398ce Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-1

The gut microbiota of animals has been described as an additional host ?organ' with beneficial roles. However, little is known about the impact of chemical exposures on the structure and function of gut microbiota of fishes. The purpose of this project was to assess the implications of aqueous exposure of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) on the gut microbial communities of male and female fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas).

GeoNetwork record: www.gwfnet.net/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/a05adceb-3dc0-4076-b410-83d0103e04b0 Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-7

GeoNetwork record: www.gwfnet.net/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/3014eb07-f908-42c5-8018-4db29fbb6570 Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-6

This data set is collected to support the project titled “Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds: Work Package 4". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund. The main goal of this research is to identify ecosystem services that are negatively affected by water quality deterioration in the Great Lakes Basin on the Canadian side, and further quantify the monetary costs induced by the worsened water quality. We identify and categorize the direct costs into seven groups: costs on property value, recreation, tourism, water treatment, biodiversity, human health, and commercial fishing. The cost estimates inform us how much it will cost us if we do not invest in solutions to promote the recovery of the Great Lakes ecosystem. Considering that climate change and higher temperature can increase algal growth and nutrient runoff, eutrophication might become an even larger problem if actions are not taken immediately. Our research can help the society understand the gravity and urgency of the issue and take appropriate measures to restore and improve the water quality in the Great Lakes Basin and provide better services to local residents and tourists.

Data are being produced for Theme B3 of the IMPC Project: Developing an integrated hydro-economic model to assess the direct and indirect economic impacts of water management and policy decisions.

sediments metals dioxins and furans Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons Current use pesticides Legacy pesticides Ecotoxicology Organic carbon Sediment texture

Northern cold regions are especially susceptible to climatic variations, and as a result of global climate change, it is important to understand the permafrost distribution using more efficient methods. Surficial alterations, both natural and anthropogenic, can be indicators of permafrost degradation. The objectives of this research are to execute the geophysical surveys using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and electromagnetic induction (EMI) to detect changes in permafrost table depth and to assess the efficiency of the EMI method versus ERT method within the Sahtu Region in the Northwest Territories. This data set will also support the objectives of projects titled Transformative sensor Technologies and Smart Watersheds (TTWS) and the Northern Water Futures (NWF). These projects are Pillar 3 projects under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

This research aims to study the effects of climate change stressors (temperature & hypoxia) on the rates of shedding and degradation of environmental DNA of brook, brown, and rainbow trout (Salvelinus fontinalis, Salmo trutta, and Oncorhynchus mykiss). Additionally, microRNA will be collected from the water to determine if there is a link between fish stress levels and changes in microRNA present in the aquatic environment. This data set is collected for the Pillar 3 project titled "Next Generation Solutions to Ensure Healthy Water Resources for Future Generations", under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund. This researcher is co-supervised by Drs. Barbara Katzenback and Paul Craig.

Indigenous youth-focused, on-the-land (OTL) camps are being delivered with communities in the Dehcho region, which involve traditional activities led by various Elders and knowledge keepers, and hands-on science-based learning activities led by graduate students and scientists. This project will be conducted with Dehcho First Nations to help lead their OTL camps, while delivering a photovoice project with the youth participants and building an evaluation framework to assess camp programming. This project will explore: (R1) How do OTL camps in the NWT create a space for Indigenous youth to apply local Indigenous Knowledge and Western science to protect the Land? (R2) What are the concerns and priorities of local Indigenous youth regarding environmental and socio-cultural changes in the Dehcho? How can their concerns and priorities be addressed to build more resilient and sustainable LBE programming in the NWT more broadly? Using a Community-Based, Participatory Action Research (CBPAR) approach, this research is responsive to the practical concerns of partner communities through active collaboration and co-learning. This methodology values Indigenous Knowledges, worldviews, cultures and experiences. This research involves the use of mixed-methods and activities at five youth-focused, week-long camps (N=20-30 youth) with partners in the Dehcho region. Opportunities for additional camps are being explored. Four integrated methods will be used: (M1) Youth will participate in an immersive, iterative photovoice project, capturing photographs throughout the camp with daily focus groups. We will create photobooks and displays of their photographs and stories to share with their families and communities. (M2) Focus groups will be held at the beginning and end of the camps as an evaluative method for the youth to share their priorities and concerns for LBE. (M3) Participant observation will be used at the camps to understand the context and dynamics of LBE. (M4) Semi-structured interviews (N=20) will be conducted with 25 youth camp participants.

The purpose of this project was i) to explore how On-the-land camps in the NWT create a space for Indigenous youth to apply local Indigenous Knowledge and Western science to protect the Land, and ii) to determine what are the concerns and priorities of local Indigenous youth regarding environmental and socio-cultural changes in the Dehcho region, and how their concerns and priorities can be addressed to build more resilient and sustainable LBE programming in the NWT more broadly.

The main objective of the project is to evaluate the environmental effectiveness of Best Management Practices (BMP) in reducing total phosphorous loads into Lake Erie from the Grand River watershed in Ontario.

The primary goal of this project will be to compare and validate the capabilities of two existing ice models to simulate the evolution of ice cover on large lakes at large and small scales. The understanding of physical processes in the presence of ice within the lake is important to understanding the complicated lake ecosystem, especially during the spring. The evolution of ice cover on large lakes is very different from what is understood in small lakes in that (i) large lakes are typically only partially covered; and (ii) ice in large lakes is often fragmented and drifts around the lake under the action of wind. Models for ice growth in small lakes preclude the hydrodynamics beneath the ice, but in lakes where total ice cover is unlikely, these relatively simple models can no longer paint a full and useful picture of the processes within the lake. Simulations using two coupled ice models, both of which will eventually include snow, will be carried out using the same hydrodynamic core, so that differences observed can be attributed to differences between the ice models, as opposed to the manner in which the hydrodynamics is represented. The first ice-model will be the ice-model included within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). The second model we will use is the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). Both large scale simulations of entire lakes and small scale process studies will be undertaken so as to build a complete understanding of marginal ice zone processes. The small scale process studies will focus on lake ice dynamics and convection near the ice edge and under ice in the presence of varying topography. These processes are inherently small scale and require more computational resources in order to model them accurately. The large scale simulations will be undertaken when an understanding of the small scale processes of interest is built. Note, that this research is part of the project titled "Evaluation of ice models in Large Lakes using Three Dimensional Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ice Models", which is a Pillar 1-2 project under the Global Water Futures (GWF) Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund (CFREF).

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GeoNetwork record: www.gwfnet.net/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/0a84dd85-f8d1-4c1b-8db6-ef49a24e3c96 Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-5

Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-4 Sample Collection Fish were collected in gill nets set overnight in the North Saskatchewan River. Intestinal samples were collected from fish from each site. All samples were collected with sterile dissection tools from the bottom 1/3 of the intestines, with separate samples collected for gut contents and tissue. Samples were immediately placed on ice prior to being transferred to a -80C freezer for long-term storage. 16s amplicon sequencing Total genomic DNA was extracted from guts using the DNeasy PowerSoil Kit (Qiagen Inc., Mississauga, ON). Concentrations were measured using a Qubit 4 Fluorometer and dsDNA HS assay kit (ThermoFisher Scientific, Waltham, MA). The V3-V4 variable region of the 16S rRNA gene was amplified using the Bact-0341 forward primer (CCTACGGGNGGCWGCAG) (Klindworth et al., 2013) and the Bact-806 reverse primer (GGACTACNVGGGTWTCTAAT) (Apprill et al., 2015). Samples were dual indexed to increase throughput of sequencing (Fadrosh et al., 2014). Samples were amplified with a 50 μL PCR reaction including Phusion green polymerase (ThermoFisher Scientific) using a SimpliAmp thermal cycler (ThermoFisher Scientific) under the following conditions: initial denaturation at 98°C for 30s, followed by 25 cycles of 98°C for 30s, 58°C for 30s, and 72°C for 30s, with a final extension at 72°C for 10 min. PCR products were assessed for size and specificity using electrophoresis on a 1.2% w/v agarose gel and purified using the Qiagen QIAquick PCR Purification Kit (Qiagen Inc.). All purified products were quantified with the Qubit dsDNA HS assay kit and concentrations were adjusted to 1 ng/ μL with molecular-grade water. Purified products were pooled, and libraries were constructed using the NEBNext® DNA Library Prep Master Mix Set for Illumina® (New England BioLabs Inc., Whitby, ON). Libraries were quantified prior to sequencing using the NEBNext® Library Quant Kit for Illumina®. Sequencing was performed on an Illumina® MiSeq instrument (Illumina, San Diego, CA) using a 2x300 base pair kit. Data processing Sequences were trimmed, cleaned, and demultiplexed using a combination of Trimmomatic (Bolger et al., 2014), USEARCH v11 (Edgar 2010), and QIIME1 (Caporaso et al., 2010). Paired-end sequences were merged with DADA2 (Callahan et al., 2016) in QIIME2 (Bolyen et al., 2019) after truncating the forward read to 280 nucleotides and the reverse read to 230 nucleotides in order to ensure maximum quality and percentage of reads retained. The DADA2 package generates sequence variants (SVs) that are used to infer different bacterial species. Chimeric sequences were subsequently removed, and SVs were compared to the Silva rRNA database release 132 for taxonomic identification in QIIME2. Samples were rarefied to a sequencing depth of 10,533 reads prior to downstream analyses. Statistical analyses were performed in PRIMER-e v7 (Auckland, NZ) and R (R Core Team, 2013).

Lakes and reservoirs are an important component in hydrological modeling across Canada. In routing processes, for example, lakes and reservoirs can retain parts of snow melt and precipitation in spring and summer, and supply water to rivers in winter and autumn. Moreover, lakes and reservoirs significantly impact simulated flow duration curves. Accounting for them explicitly in hydrologic models can improve peak flow simulations. The lake-river routing structure is a fundamental requirement to include lakes in a hydrologic model. The inclusion of lakes in the routing structure is usually a manual process. For regional or global studies, however, only large lakes are usually added into the lake-river routing structure. This is due to the large number of smaller lakes and the significant processing time required to (manually) include all lakes in the lake-river routing structure. Thus, a geospatial product that explicitly and automatically represents lake-river routing structures is required to enhance the quality of regional and global hydrologic studies. In research, we will develop a pan-Canadian lake-river routing product that 1) includes all lakes connected by the river network, 2) describes lake-river routing structures hydrologically correct, and 3) includes all derived routing parameters required to run a hydrologic model. This research is part of "Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds: Work Package 1". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The project assesses the impacts of climate change on sediment transport and nutrient cycling in the South Saskatchewan River from Lake Diefenbaker to Tobin Lake. The project is essentially water quality components of climate change production runs for the Saskatchewan River Basin. A number of models including MESH, SPARROW, MODSIM, CE-QUAL-W2 and WASP will be loosely coupled to produce daily water quality and sediment variables.

The Matawa Water Futures (MWF) project was developed through the Global Water Futures project to advance Indigenous-informed water science to support decision-making and water stewardship in the Matawa First Nation (MFN) homelands and traditional territories in Northern Ontario. The objective for the end of the MWF project is to hold a large water-themed gathering, inviting all MFN communities to attend to celebrate the value and sacredness of water, as well as share observations and scientific knowledge about the water, and share progress in water and environmental stewardship programs. A vital piece that has supported this project over the years has been the relationships built within our communities, as well as those relationships built with other nations and organizations. In keeping with this appreciation of fostering and maintaining relationships, we would like to extend an invitation to include Indigenous groups and organizations around Canada and beyond who are working in water and environmental initiatives or programs, overall advancing Indigenous stewardship within their own homelands. This gathering is an opportunity to: Share knowledge and learn from each other about water relationships, values and perspectives, as well as water & environmental stewardship practices and policies; and to Facilitate opportunities for collaboration and relationship-building.

The project focus is to utilize a hydrological model to simulate the historical and future streamflow of Saskatchewan River Basin. This project supports the Current Generation Hydrological Modelling theme of the Core Modelling and Forecasting Team and Theme A of IMPC.

The current data bring together maps (flowcharts of relationships) created by participants at three workshop series, held in 2009, 2010, and 2013-2014. The maps depict relationships among concepts (+ or -) relationship strength of 1-5 with 5 being strong and 1 being weak) identified as important by workshop participants. Maps were then translated into sparse matrices by project HQP, where the value in Cij represents the strength of the relationship between concepts i and j, which is ith row and jth column of the matrix. The data from each workshop have been combined into an overall consensual fuzzy cognitive map using matrix algebra, depicting a broad understanding of eutrophication in Lake Erie as of 2014. Future workshops are being planned to update this dataset. The updated dataset will allow an assessment of how our understanding of the causes of eutrophication has evolved over time, as well as comparisons of the perceptions of various groups (stakeholders, researchers, etc.).

Links between land-based human activities and in-lake manifestations of eutrophication are identified. The project uses fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to translate expert knowledge into quantitative data to link causes with effects based on - personal judgement, - compare perceptions of the cause-effect relationships among groups of researchers, managers, stakeholders, and the public, - identification of concepts for understanding eutrophication, and - running of scenarios to understand possible outcomes of management actions.

The data are associated with the article: "Seasonal controls on stream metal(loid) signatures in mountainous discontinuous permafrost" by Skierszkan,E.K.,Carey, S.K., Jackson, S.I., Fellwock, M., Fraser, C. & Lindsay, M.B.J. (2023). Seasonal controls on stream metal(loid) signatures in mountainous discontinuous permafrost, Science of The Total Environment, 908(167999). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167999. The data were used to investigate metal(loid) abundances and mobilization processes in water in a discontinuous permafrost region. The data consist of a compilation of analyses produced as part of baseline environmental monitoring at the proposed Coffee Gold Mine by its proponent, Newmont Corp, and supplemented with additional samples collected as part of a research project into geogenic metal(oid)s in permafrost regions led by Skierszkan et al.

Routine field sampling of Buffalo Pound Lake, Moose Jaw area. This data is collected as part of the Pillar 3 GWF project "FORMBLOOM: Forecasting Tools and Mitigation Options for Diverse Bloom-Affected Lakes".

Routine field sampling of Conestogo Lake and Woolwich Reservoir. This data is collected as part of the Pillar 3 GWF project "FORMBLOOM: Forecasting Tools and Mitigation Options for Diverse Bloom-Affected Lakes".

Routine field sampling of IISD-ELA Lake 227. This data is collected as part of the Pillar 3 GWF project "FORMBLOOM: Forecasting Tools and Mitigation Options for Diverse Bloom-Affected Lakes".

"Urban stream syndrome" describes the increased concentrations of nutrients and contaminants, modified channel morphology and stability, flashy hydrographs, and decreases in biodiversity in urban, lotic streams, because of increases in impermeable surfaces, intensive development, and poor storm water management. Although the hydrologic changes that result from urbanization have been extensively described, the effects of this hydrologic modification on other river processes is poorly understood. The purpose of this project is to understand the consequences of watershed urbanization on geomorphological and ecological processes of rivers through direct comparison of similar rivers with different watershed land-use scenarios. In particular, this project focuses on bedload sediment transport, water quality, and benthic macroinvertebrates. The aim is to use this research to help inform policies on restoration and conservation of urban rivers and aquatic ecosystems. Funding for this data collection was provided by an NSERC Strategic Grant (STPGP 463321 – 14, Assessing and restoring the resilience of urban stream networks). This data collected will also be used to support the project titled "Linking Stream Network Process Models to Robust Data Management Systems for the Purpose of Land-Use Decision Support", which is funded under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) has shown potential for the retrieval of properties pertaining to soil moisture and snow depth. The Faculty of Engineering at the University of Waterloo has designed and built a reflectometer for these properties. This instrument will be tested, comparing the collected data with coincident field measurements in southern Ontario. This data set is collected for the project titled "Transformative sensor Technologies and Smart Watershed (TTWS): Work Package 2". TTWS a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The first goal of this project was to utilize remote geophysical imagery to identify groundwater (GW) discharge zones in the Central Mackenzie Valley (CMV) of the Northwest Territories. The CMV is a proposed shale oil development region and, is therefore, vulnerable to environmental degradation and surface/groundwater contamination, associated with hydraulic fracturing. Determining locations of groundwater discharge at the surface provides information about potential pathways with which contamination could reach the surface. Additionally, characterizing groundwater discharge locations also contributes to a better overall understanding of the region’s hydrogeology. This work was able to successfully utilize remotely sensed optical and thermal data to identify recurring groundwater discharge zones and their relative sizes. The second goal of this work was to identify regions of continually degrading vegetation within the CMV. Degraded vegetation represents areas where permafrost may be thawing, as it creates saturated subsurface conditions, in which most tree species cannot survive. Indigenous groups living in the CMV rely on traditional hunting and gathering methods to sustain their communities. Degrading forest cover, therefore, has significant impacts on the sustainability of these communities. Additionally, thawing permafrost plays an important role in the region’s hydrologic cycle, and should be understood in greater detail. This work was able to identify vegetated regions which have been continually degrading since 2011; the results were in agreement with in-situ permafrost monitoring data. This data set is collected for the project titled “Transformative sensor Technologies and Smart Watershed(TTWS): Work Package 1". TTWS a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The high-resolution forecasts of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model and outputs of the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) have a short historical record. The EU WATCH ERA-Interim reanalysis (WFDEI) has a longer historical record, but has often been found to be biased relative to observations over Canada. The strengths of both datasets (GEM-CaPA and WFDEI) were blended to produce a less-biased long record product (WFDEI-GEM-CaPA) for hydrological modelling and climate change impacts assessment over the a domain covering most of North America. This product is then used to bias-correct climate projections from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) from 1951 to 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, and an analysis of the datasets shows the biases in the original WFDEI product have been removed and the climate change signals in CanRCM4 are preserved. The resulting bias-corrected data (CanRCM4-WFDEI-GEM-CaPA 3h*0.125 deg resolution) are a consistent set of historical and climate projection data suitable for large-scale modelling and future climate scenario analysis. More details on the methods used in developing this product are in https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2019-103. These data are in NetCDF format and can be downloaded via the Cuizinart Platform (http://cuizinart.io) by selecting dataset labelled canrcm4-wfdei-gem-capa.

Created WFDEI-GEM-CaPA, a less Canada-biased blend of: - forecasts of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model, - outputs of the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA), and - the EU WATCH ERA-Interim reanalysis (WFDEI). for (most of) North America. WFDEI-GEM-CaPA used for - hydrological modelling and climate change impacts assessment, and further, - to bias-correct climate projections from climate projections from the CanRCM4 model (1951 to 2100) under RCP8.5. The resulting high-resolution, bias-corrected meteorological forcing data called CanRCM4-WFDEI-GEM-CaPA: - removed biases from WFDEI, and - preserved the climate change signals in CanRCM4.

Digital Elevation Model data and climate data for this project were downloaded from publicly available online sources from Government of Canada Open Data Catalogue GEOGRATIS (http://geogratis.cgdi.gc.ca/) and Environment Canada and Climate Change (http://climate.weather.gc.ca/) websites respectively; data will also be collected during fieldwork. Field techniques included collection of various tracers such as isotopes, geochemistry, and temperature. Data includes surface water and shallow groundwater quality and chemistry, 18O, 2H, 3H, 87Sr, and 13C isotopes, as well as sampling locations, measurements of active layer thickness, hydraulic conductivity and geology. Data is in spreadsheet and shapefiles/geospatial data formats.

This project aims to characterize and map groundwater flow within a discontinuous permafrost region at Bogg Creek Watershed, near Norman Wells, Northwest Territories, using indirect techniques, such as tracers. Hydrocarbon extraction and climate change both pose potential threats to groundwater and surface water resources in northern, permafrost regions, prompting the need for baseline monitoring of water resources prior to disturbance. Collecting baseline data can be expensive, difficult and even impractical given the unique environment and extreme climate, and few standard protocols exist. This data forms the basis of an exploration into the viability of using indirect methods of characterizing groundwater flow in this region. This is in order to form a conceptual model that can be used to select further monitoring sites. This is via use of several environmental tracers, including temperature, isotopes, and geochemistry. This data set is collected for the project titled “Transformative sensor Technologies and Smart Watershed (TTWS): Work Package 1". TTWS a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

Digital Elevation Model data and climate data for this project were downloaded from publicly available online sources from Government of Canada Open Data Catalogue GEOGRATIS (Link may be broken - http://geogratis.cgdi.gc.ca ) and Environment Canada and Climate Change (http://climate.weather.gc.ca/) websites respectively; data will also be collected during fieldwork. Field techniques included collection of various tracers such as isotopes, geochemistry, and temperature. Data includes surface water and shallow groundwater quality and chemistry, 18O, 2H, 3H, 87Sr, and 13C isotopes, as well as sampling locations, measurements of active layer thickness, hydraulic conductivity and geology. Data is in spreadsheet and shapefiles/geospatial data formats

This project aims to characterize and map groundwater flow within a discontinuous permafrost region at Bogg Creek Watershed, near Norman Wells, Northwest Territories, using indirect techniques, such as tracers. Hydrocarbon extraction and climate change both pose potential threats to groundwater and surface water resources in northern, permafrost regions, prompting the need for baseline monitoring of water resources prior to disturbance. Collecting baseline data can be expensive, difficult and even impractical given the unique environment and extreme climate, and few standard protocols exist. This data forms the basis of an exploration into the viability of using indirect methods of characterizing groundwater flow in this region. This is in order to form a conceptual model that can be used to select further monitoring sites. This is via use of several environmental tracers, including temperature, isotopes, and geochemistry. This data set is collected for the project titled “Transformative sensor Technologies and Smart Watershed (TTWS): Work Package 1", a Pillar 3 project.

Model-agnostic benchmarking – development of a multi-scale, multi-variate model evaluation scheme that can be used to diagnose the process fidelity of any Earth System Model, as part of a wider model-agnostic benchmarking system. Objectives are: 1) Generate hydrologic simulations for the North America domain 2) Collect and synthesize multi-scale and multi-variate evaluation data 3) Define diagnostic evaluation metrics based on hydrologic theory and available data 4) Use the defined diagnostic evaluation metrics to assess process fidelity of the North America simulations 5) Define development goals for the model used to generate North America simulations This project supports the geospatial intelligence theme of the GWF Core Modelling and Forecasting Team.

Hydrologic computer models are used to simulate the availability of water on the land surface. These simulations are important for many purposes, such as predicting how much water will be available for energy generation, agriculture, consumption, etc. These simulations are being performed for every stream and river basin in North America. The goal of this project is to improve the methods we use to see how accurate these simulations are.

This data supports the Global Water Futures project Mountain Water Futures and its goals to identify and characterize aquifers in alpine headwaters, develop simple algorithms representing groundwater storage-discharge relation, and incorporate them in river-basin hydrological models.

A common goal of both the FORecasting tools and Mitigation options for diverse BLOOM-affected lakes (FORMBLOOM) and Transformative sensor Technologies and Smart Watersheds (TTSW) projects is to improve the detection and understanding of harmful algae blooms (HABs) through the use of hyperspectral remote sensing techniques. Certain wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum have been shown to be sensitive to water quality parameters related to HABs such as Chlorophyll-a. The hyperspectral images in this dataset were collected in order to expand the research of water quality monitoring and detecting algae blooms. Several biogeochemical variables were also measured in the water body at/ near the time of acquisition. This data was collected from Lake Erie near Leamington (ON), Conestogo Lake (ON), and Buffalo Pound Lake (SK). FORMBLOOM and TTSW projects are Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

This project aims to examine the impact of freeze-thaw cycling on fertilizer leaching and nitrification inhibitor efficacy. Results suggest that nitrogen fertilizer is susceptible to nitrification following freeze-thaw cycling in agricultural soil and nitrification inhibitor effectiveness may be detrimentally affected by freeze-thaw cycling. Samples for both experiments were collected at the rare Charitable Reserve and project data was collected at the University of Waterloo Ecohydrology Research Group laboratories. Funding for this project was provided by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund under the Global Water Futures Program. For the dissolved organic carbon/total nitrogen and dissolved inorganic carbon data for both the soil column and sacrificial batch experiment, measurements were taken using a Shimadzu TOC-LCPH/CPN analyzer. For the ion chromatography data for both experiments, measurements were taken using a Dionex ICS-5000. pH and EC measurements were taken using LAQUA Horiba B-213 Twin meters. For the inductively coupled plasma measurements for both experiments, measurements were taken using a Thermo Scientific iCAP 6300.

Increased winter temperatures caused by climate warming may expose soils to colder temperatures and more freeze-thaw events. Freeze-thaw cycles influence chemical, biological, and physical soil properties that control carbon and nutrient cycling and microbial activity. Changes to these processes may impact nutrient export from affected soils, possibly altering soil health and nearby water quality. Determining these impacts to geochemical cycling and microbial activity will provide insight into the efficacy of pre-winter fertilizer applications and improve our conceptual and quantitative understanding of shallow subsurface biogeochemical processes. Thus, the overall aim of this research project is to assess the mechanisms of soil biogeochemical processes under variable freeze-thaw cycles and soil moisture content conditions, and determine the effects on carbon and nutrient cycling under variable snow cover and winter conditions. This data set is created to support the project titled "Winter Soil Processes in Transition", which is Pillar 1-2 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund

GeoNetwork record: www.gwfnet.net/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/b3f6ea7a-3ce2-4eb0-be67-932d03f4b432 Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-4

Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-4 Sample Collection Fish were collected in gill nets set overnight in the North Saskatchewan River. Intestinal samples were collected from fish from each site. All samples were collected with sterile dissection tools from the bottom 1/3 of the intestines, with separate samples collected for gut contents and tissue. Samples were immediately placed on ice prior to being transferred to a -80C freezer for long-term storage. 16s amplicon sequencing Total genomic DNA was extracted from guts using the DNeasy PowerSoil Kit (Qiagen Inc., Mississauga, ON). Concentrations were measured using a Qubit 4 Fluorometer and dsDNA HS assay kit (ThermoFisher Scientific, Waltham, MA). The V3-V4 variable region of the 16S rRNA gene was amplified using the Bact-0341 forward primer (CCTACGGGNGGCWGCAG) (Klindworth et al., 2013) and the Bact-806 reverse primer (GGACTACNVGGGTWTCTAAT) (Apprill et al., 2015). Samples were dual indexed to increase throughput of sequencing (Fadrosh et al., 2014). Samples were amplified with a 50 μL PCR reaction including Phusion green polymerase (ThermoFisher Scientific) using a SimpliAmp thermal cycler (ThermoFisher Scientific) under the following conditions: initial denaturation at 98°C for 30s, followed by 25 cycles of 98°C for 30s, 58°C for 30s, and 72°C for 30s, with a final extension at 72°C for 10 min. PCR products were assessed for size and specificity using electrophoresis on a 1.2% w/v agarose gel and purified using the Qiagen QIAquick PCR Purification Kit (Qiagen Inc.). All purified products were quantified with the Qubit dsDNA HS assay kit and concentrations were adjusted to 1 ng/ μL with molecular-grade water. Purified products were pooled, and libraries were constructed using the NEBNext® DNA Library Prep Master Mix Set for Illumina® (New England BioLabs Inc., Whitby, ON). Libraries were quantified prior to sequencing using the NEBNext® Library Quant Kit for Illumina®. Sequencing was performed on an Illumina® MiSeq instrument (Illumina, San Diego, CA) using a 2x300 base pair kit. Data processing Sequences were trimmed, cleaned, and demultiplexed using a combination of Trimmomatic (Bolger et al., 2014), USEARCH v11 (Edgar 2010), and QIIME1 (Caporaso et al., 2010). Paired-end sequences were merged with DADA2 (Callahan et al., 2016) in QIIME2 (Bolyen et al., 2019) after truncating the forward read to 280 nucleotides and the reverse read to 230 nucleotides in order to ensure maximum quality and percentage of reads retained. The DADA2 package generates sequence variants (SVs) that are used to infer different bacterial species. Chimeric sequences were subsequently removed, and SVs were compared to the Silva rRNA database release 132 for taxonomic identification in QIIME2. Samples were rarefied to a sequencing depth of 10,533 reads prior to downstream analyses. Statistical analyses were performed in PRIMER-e v7 (Auckland, NZ) and R (R Core Team, 2013).

The goal of this project was to determine phosphorus (P) speciation and loads found within tile drains over the non-growing season (Oct-May), following fall application of dairy manure, under different land management treatments. These treatments included surface applied manure to a conservation tilled plot and a deep disc tilled plot, in addition to manure incorporation on a conservation tilled plot. This study used a field-based approach with soil samples, taken at the beginning and end of the experiment, as well as water samples collected on an event basis when flow was present within the tile drains. Soluble reactive P (SRP), total dissolved P (TDP), and total P (TP) were tested to determine P speciation and total loads. This dataset is collected to support the objectives of Agricultural Water Futures in Canada: Stressors and Solutions: Work Package 1". Agricultural Water Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

Changes in soil temperature, as a result of a warmer climate, will have profound effects on cold regions ecosystems. It is hypothesized that reduced snow cover can result in lower soil temperatures, more extensive soil freezing, and an increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles. The objective of this research project is to investigate whether these hypotheses are supported by recent soil and meteorological observations, from monitoring stations across the United States, with seasonally freezing and thawing ground. This data set will be used to support the project titled "Winter Soil Processes in Transition", which is Pillar 1-2 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The aim of this research was to create locally driven adaptation plans that will eventually turn into practice for the benefit of safer travel and well-being of harvesters when out on the land. Climate change is changing the way people go out on the land and practice a subsistence lifestyle, thus affecting the community's overall health. The project identified safe stopping spots around Kakisa Lake as an adaptation protocol for community members and visitors.

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The main goal of this work is to quantify seasonal effluxes of soluble phosphorus from sediments in lakes and reservoirs by means of mechanistic biogeochemical modelling. Funding is acknowledged from: i) Lakes in Transition (Research Council of Norway project no. 244558/E50) held at the Norwegian Institute for Water Research-NIVA; ii) the Canada Excellence Research Chair in Ecohydrology; iii) Lake Futures - Work Package 2 (Global Water Futures, a Canada First Research Excellence Fund Program); and iv) Sentinel North Research Chair in Aquatic Geochemistry (Sentinel North, a Canada First Research Excellence Fund Program).

Data collected for this project include a series of surface and subsurface variables characterizing the thermal and mass balance of observation points and the study basin as a whole. This includes both continuous (30 minute intervals) and discrete data sets collected between 2017-07-10 and 2019-09-10. Each data set was stratified across a series of land cover classes designated within the study basin: open water, mineral-cored uplands, riparian, ice-rich permafrost, and thermokarst features. Surface variables measured continuously include stream discharge, albedo, air temperature, relative humidity, net radiation, and rain. Surface variables measured discretely include snow depth, snow density, vegetation height, and vegetation density. Subsurface variables measured continuously include soil temperature, volumetric moisture content, and water table depth. Subsurface variables measured discretely include evapotranspiration rates, groundwater pressure head, and near surface soil thermal properties. Drone surveys allow for estimates of snowpack depletion rates, basin extent, and mean values of elevation, aspect, and relief for each land cover class. Field samples collected for later laboratory work include water from surface and subsurface sources (d2H and d18O isotope analysis), and soil samples from mineral and organic strata (density, porosity, and hydraulic conductivity).

This 30-meter spatial resolution dataset from the North American Land Change Monitoring System reflects land cover information for 2010 from Mexico and Canada and 2011 for the United States. The North American Land Cover information was downloaded from http://www.cec.org/tools-and-resources/map-files/land-cover-2010-landsat-30m. The region of interest (Great Lakes) was cropped and data converted into formats ASCII and NetCDF. Data are then made available to the project collaborators on a private GitHub. Researchers interested in data can email Juliane Mai (University of Waterloo; juliane.mai@uwaterloo.ca)

Data has been made available to project collaborators on a private GitHub repository. To obtain data, go and see, or email Juliane Mai.

The Land use & cover from the Great Lakes Aquatic Habitat Framework (GLAHF) were downloaded from GLAHF website (https://www.glahf.org/data/). Data was converted into the NetCDF format. Data are then made available to the project collaborators on a private GitHub. Researchers interested in finding more about the data can email Juliane Mai (University of Waterloo; juliane.mai@uwaterloo.ca)

Data has been made available to project collaborators on a private GitHub repository. To obtain data, go and see, or email Juliane Mai.

The Great Lakes Runoff Inter-comparison Project (GRIP) includes a wide range of lumped and distributed models that are used operationally and/or for research purposes across Canada and the United States. Participating models are Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM- Hydro), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro), MEC-Surface & Hydrology (MESH), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), WATFLOOD, HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) The project aims to run all these models over several regions in Canada with Great Lakes, focusing on Lake Erie and Lake St.Clair as the initial domain (GRIP-E). This project will also focus on identifying a standard, consistent dataset for model building that all participants in the inter-comparison project can access and then process to generate their model-specific required inputs. This data set is collected for the project titled "Integrated Modelling Program for Canada (IMPC): Theme 1", which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The MODIS/Terra+Aqua Land Cover Type Yearly L3 Global 500m SIN Grid V006 (MCD12Q1_006), 500 m were downloaded from NASA USGS website (https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/news/release-modis-version-6-land-cover-dynamics-data-product/). This global product has a 500 m resolution. In the GRIP-E project only the data images of 2016 have been used for the initial land cover parametrization. The region of interest (Great Lakes) is cropped and data converted into formats ASCII and NetCDF. Data are then made available to the project collaborators on a private GitHub. Researchers interested in data can email Juliane Mai (University of Waterloo; juliane.mai@uwaterloo.ca)

Data has been made available to project collaborators on a private GitHub repository. To obtain data, go and see, or email Juliane Mai.

The Great Lakes Runoff Inter-comparison Project (GRIP) includes a wide range of lumped and distributed models that are used operationally and/or for research purposes across Canada and the United States. Participating models are Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM- Hydro), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro), MEC-Surface & Hydrology (MESH), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), WATFLOOD, HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) The project aims to run all these models over several regions in Canada with Great Lakes, focusing on Lake Erie and Lake St.Clair as the initial domain (GRIP-E). This project will also focus on identifying a standard, consistent dataset for model building that all participants in the inter-comparison project can access and then process to generate their model-specific required inputs. This data set is collected for the project titled "Integrated Modelling Program for Canada (IMPC): Theme 1", which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

Intercomparison studies play an important, but limited role in understanding the usefulness and limitations of currently available hydrological models. Comparison studies are often limited to well-behaved hydrological regimes, where rainfall-runoff processes dominate the hydrological response. These efforts have not covered western Canada due to the difficulty in simulating that region’s complex cold region hydrology with varying spatiotemporal contributing areas. This intercomparison study is the first of a series of studies under the intercomparison project of the international and interprovincial transboundary Nelson-Churchill River Basin (NCRB) in North America (Nelson-MIP), which encompasses different ecozones with major areas of the non-contributing Prairie potholes, forests, glaciers, mountains, and permafrost. The performance of eight hydrological and land surface models is compared at different unregulated watersheds within the NCRB. This is done to assess the models’ streamflow performance and overall fidelity without and with calibration, to capture the underlying physics of the region and to better understand why models struggle to accurately simulate its hydrology. Results show that some of the participating models have difficulties in simulating streamflow and/or internal hydrological variables (e.g., evapotranspiration) over Prairie watersheds but most models performed well elsewhere. This stems from model structural deficiencies, despite the various models being well calibrated to observed streamflow. Some model structural changes are identified for the participating models for future improvement. The outcomes of this study offer guidance for practitioners for the accurate prediction of NCRB streamflow, and for increasing confidence in future projections of water resources supply and management.

Learning from hydrological models’ challenges: A case study from the Nelson basin model intercomparison project

The purpose of this research is to offer detailed and systematic analyses of the role of changing demographics and societal values on water governance processes in the Ontario portion of the Great Lakes basin as well as offer potential governance innovations in addressing those challenges. This dataset will support the project titled "Linking Water Governance to Economic, Social and Political Drivers" which is a Pillar 1-2 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the quality of final effluent being discharged into the Grand River watershed, from the Kitchener and Waterloo wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), pre and post upgrades. The final effluent has been analyzed for nutrient levels, pharmaceuticals, total estrogenicity, and specific hormones, since 2010. A better understanding of effluent quality will help predict relationships between contaminant exposure and biological responses. This data set is collected to support the project titled “Linking multiple stressors to adverse ecological response". This is a Pillar 1-2 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

This study aims to link changes in metabolism and gill physiology of the common darter fish (Etheostoma spp) to whole effluent toxicity in the Grand River, to better understand physiological compensation occurring in contaminated environments. This study will contribute to the necessary biomonitoring of fish populations, and overall Grand River health, through measuring changes to ecologically relevant physiological endpoints of multiple species. This data set is collected to support the project titled “Linking multiple stressors to adverse ecological response". This is a Pillar 1-2 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The main objective of this project was to instrument the Alder Creek watershed with sensors and telemetry in order to collect near real-time hydrological data for monitoring the impacts of urbanization and land use change within a critical area for municipal water supply. The goal of the Southern Ontario Water Consortium (SOWC) was to set up a platform for research, development, testing, and demonstration of new sensors, data processing technology, and services. Alder Creek was instrumented as one of several field observatories, and it represented the middle member of three subwatersheds along a continuum from rural/agricultural (Hopewell Creek) to fully urbanized (Mimico Creek, Toronto). Foci within the project included hydrological data collection and data management. Field data such as meteorological, stream, and groundwater observations were recorded. Near real-time transmission of these data, via cellular network telemetry to an Online data platform (IBM's Intelligent Operations for Water), for display and data analytics, was a complementary aim. Concerns regarding the vulnerability of municipal supply wells to microbial and non-point source contamination, especially under the conditions of extreme hydrological events, were drivers of this work. Note that this project was started within the Watershed Node of the Southern Ontario Water Consortium (SOWC; www.sowc.ca) and funded by the Federal Economic Development Agency of Canada (FedDev) and the Ontario Ministry of Economic Development and Innovation (MEDI). This data set will also support the project titled "Transformative sensor Technologies and Smart Watersheds (TTWS): Work Package 1". TTWS is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

This dataset supports the Global Water Futures project Prairie Water and its goals to understand groundwater recharge processes in the Canadian prairies, develop practical models for recharge estimation, and evaluate the spatial distribution of recharge in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Select second related project (if applicable)

Nvivo projects and database

Model name: HYPE Model version number: 5.13.3 (latest version at the start of model setup) Model source/webpage: https://hypeweb.smhi.se/model-water/documentation-download-open-source-code/ Model output pre-processing script: Internal script available at UC-HAL; Package HYPEtools available for R software Model output post-processing script: Not yet available Model setup: - Lake-river routing derived from Han et al. 2020 (https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.3667677) - NALCMS 2015 land use downloaded from https://www.mrlc.gov/data/north-american-land-change-monitoring-system - GSDE soil data downloaded from http://globalchange.bnu.edu.cn/research/soilwd.jsp - WFDEI-GEM-CaPA meteorological forcing taken from https://www.frdr-dfdr.ca/repo/handle/doi:10.20383/101.0111 - Measured daily streamflow discharge taken from Water Survey Canada and USGS website. Time step: Daily from January 1, 1980 to December 31, 2016 Initial condition: Boundary condition: Additional information: - Model spin-up from September 1, 1979 to December 31, 1979 - The time period for the simulations of future climate change impact on streamflow and related processes (for Phase 3 of Nelson-MiP) is not yet defined. For other models, information on model run/ simulation will be provided when model simulations are ready and submitted to the project coordinator

Model Outputs from the Multi-model Intercomparison Project on the Saskatchewan-Nelson-Churchill River Basin

The Nelson-MiP project on the Saskatchewan-Nelson-Churchill river basin (NCRB) includes many process-based hydrologic and land surface models for operational and/or research purposes. Participating models include HYPE, WATFLOOD, SWAT, HBV, VIC, and MESH, as well as the modelling frameworks RAVEN and SUMMA. This three-year modelling experiment (2020-2022) has gathered hydrologic researchers and practitioners from many institutions across Canada. As part of the Global Water Futures (GWF) program, this project aims to evaluate internal model processes and generate an ensemble of GWF land surface and hydrologic models for NCRB. Beyond the understanding of the drivers of the differences among models from an internal process perspective, this project’s main contribution is to assess the reliability of the participating models for the prediction of key hydrologic processes and streamflow under climate change conditions. First year of this effort focuses on adapting the process-based models to the low-human impacted sub-watersheds while water regulations/ diversions will be accounted for in the second year. A set of CMIP6 climate models-driven present-day and future climate change impact projections on the watershed hydrology is foreseen for the third year of the project. The results of this project will serve to demonstrate the differences in model capabilities. We will also learn about the conditions under which each process algorithm is most applicable.

This project supports the hydrological forecasting theme of the GWF Core Modelling and Forecasting Team. As part of the Global Water Futures project, the computational hydrology group builds tools to simulate and predict hydrologic processes. This work focuses on the last point and aims to: -Set up a North America-wide sub-seasonal to seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system -Assess the predictability of streamflow on seasonal timescales across North America

Model name: HYPE Model version number: 5.5.1 Model source/webpage: https://sourceforge.net/projects/hype/files/release_hype_5_5_1/ Model output pre-processing script: R script used to run Bayesian inference Model output post-processing script: R script used to run uncertainty analysis and for plotting parameter posterior distributions and uncertainty plots Model setup: Time step: 1 day Initial condition: calibrated Boundary condition: none

Model name: HYPE Model version number: Not published. The source code was modified at the University of Manitoba Model source/webpage: https://sourceforge.net/projects/hype/files/release_hype_5_5_1/ Model output pre-processing script: R script used to run Bayesian inference Model output post-processing script: R script used to run uncertainty analysis and for plotting parameter posterior distributions and uncertainty plots Model setup: Time step: 1 day Initial condition: calibrated Boundary condition: none

Nuisance and harmful algal blooms represent a growing major threat to water security across Canada and the world, because of their undesirable ecological, economic, and health impacts. This project aims to strengthen the predictive understanding and forecasting of the timing, spatial extent, and intensity of algal blooms of large lakes in cold regions. Lake Erie will be the focus of this project; with the internal phosphorus loading and climate change as key considerations for sustaining algal blooms. Note, that this research is part of the CERC Ecohydrology Program funded by Canada Excellence Research Chair and the “Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds: Work Package 2". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures (GWF) Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund (CFREF).

Nuisance and harmful algal blooms represent a major, and growing, threat to water security across Canada and the world, because of their undesirable ecological, economic, and health impacts. This project aims to strengthen the predictive understanding and forecasting of the timing, spatial extent and intensity of algal blooms in large lakes of the cold temperate to subarctic climate zone. We will (1) perform statistical analyses of the environmental factors that control the occurrence of algal blooms in Lake Erie and Lake Ontario using remote sensing data, and (2) test the performance of data-driven probabilistic models for seasonal and inter-annual forecasting of algal blooms. Note, that this research is part of the “Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds: Work Package 2". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The purpose of this project was to characterize the variation and vertical structure in ground ice content of the near-surface permafrost in the two dominant permafrost-affected forest types in the Great Slave Lowlands, Yellowknife, Northwest Territories.

The overarching objective of MOECC Thames River Phosphorus Dynamics Study is to improve the conceptual as well as quantitative understanding of how nutrient loadings from the landscape translate to nutrient loadings to receiving water bodies after retention, remobilization and transformation processes in the Thames River channel and its tributaries, as well as to provide an improved understanding of the potential in-stream interventions which could decrease sediment and nutrient loading in the basin. Fanshawe Reservoir was selected for study due to its potential role as a modifier of phosphorus speciation and load, integrating loading from a large area of the Upper Thames watershed before its eventual discharge to Lake St Clair and the western basin of Lake Erie. The data collected will be used to calibrate and validate a model in CE-QUAL-W2 as well as produce a multi-seasonal P mass balance for the reservoir at a monthly resolution. This data collected will also be used to support the project titled "Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The purpose of this research project is to quantify nitrogen and phosphorus flows through a mixed urban and rural area. There is particular interest to find the ways in which increasing population densities in the Greater Toronto Area are impacting nutrient flows across Southern Ontario’s urban/rural continuum and how changing nutrient dynamics may lead to increasingly impaired water quality in Lake Ontario and beyond. This work looks to establish the “metabolism” of the Greater Toronto Area in 2011 through the analysis of the various inputs and outputs of the system that includes factors such as food consumption, fertilizer usage, crop production, and wastewater treatment plants outputs. This data set is collected for the project titled "Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The goal of this research is to focus on the long-term effect of nutrient contamination in Lake Erie, and its surrounding waters (watersheds?). Particular emphasis will be placed on the Maumee watershed in Ohio, as it is the biggest contributing watershed to Lake Erie (approximately 60%). The parsimonious model will be used to determine long-term total phosphorus loading trajectories in the Maumee Watershed. This data set is collected for the project titled “Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds - Work Package 1". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures (GWF) Program funded by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund (CFREF).

The main goal of this research is to model the farmers’ optimal agricultural fertilization behaviour under two uncertainties: 1) crop price uncertainty and 2) weather uncertainty. The weather uncertainty takes into consideration two factors: precipitation and temperature. Understanding the factors that influence farmers’ decisions on fertilizer application could help to update the recommended fertilizer application rate and support the design of best management practices in fertilizer application. This understanding of farmers' behaviour under uncertainty, can then inform nutrient control strategies, aimed at reducing nutrient inputs to the Great Lakes. This data set is collected to support the project titled “Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds: Work Package 4". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The aim of this project is to build on existing research, which resulted in the development of a low-cost, lab-based fibre optic oxygen sensor for monitoring oxygen in soils and sediments. The field system was built in collaboration with an industrial partner, Hoskin Scientific, who developed the optical detection and electrical control units for the sensor system. In the GWF program, the unit will be tested under field conditions, through deployment at the University of Guelph’s Elora Research Station, in Southern Ontario, in collaboration with the University of Guelph researchers. The optode data being collected will be used for evaluating the sensor performance under field conditions and for an improved understanding of soil oxygen dynamics given the seasonal variations in an agricultural field site. Note that the initial sensor development was funded by the Canada Excellence Research Chair (CERC) program (CERC Ecohydrology), while the field sensor development was in partnership with Hoskin Scientific through an NSERC Engage Grant. The data set here will support the project titled "Sensors and Sensing Systems for Water Quality Monitoring", which is a Pillar 1 project under the Global Water Futures Program (GWF) funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

This data was collected to support the GWF project "Mountain Water Futures".

The purpose of this project was to investigate the potential for and controls upon metal/metalloid mobility in peatland porewater in peatlands in the area around Yellowknife, NT.

The purpose of this project was to collect a time series of vegetation phenological observations for 393 sites across diverse ecosystems of the world (mostly North America) from 2000-2018

Location pin for this project given as University of Montreal location, 45.5010087, -73.6157778

This research project aims to address the spatial and temporal evolution of anthropogenic phosphorus inputs into Ontario watersheds. Collected data includes number of livestock, area of crops grown, area fertilized, total cropland area, and population size in each county in Ontario. The outcome of the data processing was total kg of phosphorus per hectare added to the watersheds of Ontario, which was spatially represented in a map of Ontario. Note, that this data set is also collected to support the objectives of two projects. These are: 1) Legacies of Agricultural Pollutants (LEAP) funded by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and other international partners. 2) "Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund

This data is collected as part of the Pillar 3 GWF project "FORMBLOOM: Forecasting Tools and Mitigation Options for Diverse Bloom-Affected Lakes".

The project objectives include testing and application of a non-invasive environmental DNA (eDNA) methodology to determine presence/absence of brook trout fish species in the Grand River sub-watershed. In addition, brook trout population abundance and biomass estimates based on eDNA signal intensity are compared to the relative estimates of abundance/biomass obtained from traditional surveying methods (e.g., electrofishing). This data set is collected for the Pillar 3 project titled “Next Generation Solutions to Ensure Healthy Water Resources for Future Generations”, under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

Prairie Water is an interdisciplinary project that prioritizes research to address pressing water security challenges and knowledge gaps in order to enhance the resilience of prairie communities. The project’s objectives and research plans are informed by working with partners from governments, communities, non-profit organisations, and industry groups. The dataset contributes to work package 3.2, B(iii) under Phase II of Prairie Water, and contributes to the objective of identifying the geographical distribution of pesticide contamination in wetlands, key drivers of contamination and transport, and priority areas based on highest proposed risk of exposure.

Prairie Water is an interdisciplinary project that prioritizes research to address pressing water security challenges and knowledge gaps in order to enhance the resilience of prairie communities. The project?s objectives and research plans are informed by working with partners from governments, communities, non-profit organisations, and industry groups. The dataset contributes to work package 3.1, B(ii) under Phase II of Prairie Water, and contributes to the objective of understanding broad spatial patterns of nitrogen, phosphorus, and other chemical parameters across pothole wetlands in the Canadian Prairies.

The Weather Research and Forecasting model Version 3.6.1 ( the model source code is accessible from http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/downloads.html) was used to simulate the historical (2000-2015) and projected climate (RCP8.5) over western Canada with a convection-permitting resolution of 4 km. The WRF model is fully compressible and nonhydrostatic and uses the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamical solvers. The model domain is composed of 699 x 639 grid points with 4-km horizontal resolution to cover western Canada. The atmospheric simulation consists of hourly pseudo global warming climate scenario (RCP8.5, end of 21st century, pgw-wrf-wca) from 2000-10-01 to 2015-09-30 at 4km spatial resolution. The model simulations employed several parameterization schemes, including Thompson microphysics scheme (Thompson et al., 2008), the Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer scheme, the Noah land surface model (Chen and Dudhia, 2001), and the CAM3 radiative transfer scheme (Collins et al., 2004). The deep cumulus parameterization was turned off because with a 4-km horizontal resolution the model can explicitly resolve deep convection and simulate convective storms. The convection-permitting model produces precipitation more realistically by directly resolving convections. Subgrid cloud cover was also disabled. The pseudo global warming simulation (PGW), a RCP8.5 climate change forcing scenario for the period of 2071-2100, aimed to reproduce the future climate statistics in terms of variability and mean state by the end of 21st century (2071-2100). The PGW simulation was forced using 6-hourly 0.7 degree ERA-Interim reanalysis data (Dee et al., 2011) with the RCP 8.5 climate change forcing by 2071-2100 from a 19-member CMIP5 ensemble added. The following atmospheric variables are currently available for western Canada: grid scale precipitation, temperature, latent heat flux, upward heat flux, upward moisture flux, downward long wave flux, downward short wave flux, surface pressure, mixing ratio, U component of the 10-m wind ( along grid x axis) and V-component of the 10-m wind ( along grid Y axis). These data are in NetCDF format and can be downloaded via the Cuizinart Platform (http://cuizinart.io).

The Weather Research Forecasting model can simulate weather systems with spatial scales ranging from a few metres to thousands of kilo-metres and is suitable for both operational forecasting and atmospheric research. To assess the hydroclimatic risks posed by climate change in western Canada, a retrospective simulation (CTL) and a pseudo-global warming (PGW) dynamical downscaling of future warming projection under RCP8.5 from an ensemble of CMIP5 climate model projections using a convection-permitting 4-km WRF model. The convection-permitting resolution of the model avoids the error-prone convection parameterization by explicitly resolving cumulus plumes. The PGW-WRF-WCA dataset contains the pseudo global warming simulation of the period 2000-2015 with climate change scenario of RCP8.5 corresponding to 2071-2100. This data set will be used support atmospheric research objectives within the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

GeoNetwork record: www.gwfnet.net/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/f6342595-4173-458f-b2cd-8016448ec6c1 Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-8

The project provides metabarcoding data of multiple communities during a period of diluted bitumen exposure and subsequent remediation treatments in lake mesocosms. This project will use next generation techniques to understand the changes of lower trophic organisms (eg. phytoplankton, zooplankton) under variable remediation efforts following a simulated spill of diluted bitumen.

The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects of treated wastewater effluent on reproductive endpoints in rainbow darter (Etheostoma caeruleum). Municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent is a major concern for the health of aquatic ecosystems, as it contains many contaminants that have been shown to cause a wide variety of adverse outcomes. Historically, poor quality effluent from the Kitchener and Waterloo WWTPs has resulted in reproductive system impairments in rainbow darter living downstream in the Grand River, including reductions in sex steroid production and the development of intersex. After the Kitchener WWTP underwent major infrastructure upgrades, these effects were seen to improve to upstream reference site conditions. We are now interested if upgrades to the smaller Waterloo WWTP will also reverse endpoints in rainbow darter downstream of it. The results of this study help build models to describe the sources, treatment and fate of chemicals to better define exposure under various treatment scenarios. This will help link exposure predictions to adverse effects on key ecosystem components and biological responses. It will also be useful in supporting improvements in water management policy and practice. This project will support the research objectives of the project titled “Linking Multiple Stressors to Adverse Ecological Responses Across Watersheds”, which is a Pillar 1-2 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

This project investigated nutrient silicon cycling in Hamilton Harbour, Lake Ontario. A field sampling program was undertaken to collect water, suspended sediment, and bottom sediment samples from Hamilton Harbour, which were then analysed for dissolved and particulate reactive silicon. Sediment cores were also used in sediment core incubation experiments to determine the flux of silicon from sediments to the water column. This data was collated into a reactive silicon mass balance model to determine silicon inputs, outputs and internal cycling processes within Hamilton Harbour. This project was funded the by Canada Excellence Research Chair in Ecohydrology but the data collected will also be used to support the project titled "Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The Great Lakes Runoff Inter-comparison Project (GRIP) includes a wide range of lumped and distributed models that are used operationally and/or for research purposes across Canada and the United States. Participating models are Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM- Hydro), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro), MEC-Surface & Hydrology (MESH), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), WATFLOOD, HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) The project aims to run all these models over several regions in Canada with Great Lakes, focusing on Lake Erie and Lake St.Clair as the initial domain (GRIP-E). This project will also focus on identifying a standard, consistent dataset for model building that all participants in the inter-comparison project can access and then process to generate their model-specific required inputs. This data set is collected for the project titled "Integrated Modelling Program for Canada (IMPC): Theme 1", which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

This project supports the hydrological forecasting theme of the GWF Core Modelling and Forecasting Team. As part of the Global Water Futures project, the computational hydrology group builds tools to simulate and predict hydrologic processes. This work focuses on the last point and aims to: -Set up a North America-wide sub-seasonal to seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system -Assess the predictability of streamflow on seasonal timescales across North America

The purpose of this project was to establish relationship between dissolved organic matter and disinfection by-product formation from waters near Yellowknife and Wekweeti, Northwest Territories

The primary focus of this research is to determine the effectiveness of investments made into the watershed, based on the achieved phosphorus loads reductions. Daily discharges were retrieved from the Hydrometric Data (HYDAT) database, provided by the Water Survey of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada (WSC-ECCC). The Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks (MOECP) provided the Provincial Water Quality Monitoring Network (PWQMN) data. Census data for population and livestock were obtained from Statistics Canada in periods of 10 years. A systematic review of the environmental programs’ archive was conducted — the origins of the archive website dates back to 1995. This archive is created and maintained by Bruce Bowman, creator of the Canada-Ontario Agriculture Green Plan website (http://agrienvarchive.ca/gp/gphompag.html). This archive includes fifteen major environmental programs related to the reduction of pollution in the Great Lakes Basin in the period 1970 - 2000. There are a total of 1044 available documents in the archive, and contains material from technical to project financial reports and summary analyses. Loadings are calculated on a yearly basis (i.e., from January 1 through December 31 of the current year). Phosphorus loadings from the non-point sources were generated in the watershed, and is estimated using fertilizer consumption, livestock production, and population count in each census area for each census year in the Thames River Watershed. Loading rate (mass per time) is estimated as the product of a concentration (mass per unit volume) and a flow rate (volume per unit time).

GeoNetwork record: www.gwfnet.net/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/30d98be2-0dcd-4888-9487-aaad8fe17428 Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-3

The gut microbiota of animals has been described as an additional host ?organ' with beneficial roles. However, little is known about the impact of chemical exposures on the structure and function of gut microbiota of fishes. The purpose of this project was to assess the implications of dietary exposure of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) on the gut microbial communities of juvenile fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas).

Forests strongly modify the accumulation, metamorphism and melting of snow in mid and high-latitude regions. Recently, snow routines in hydrological and land surface models have been improved to incorporate more accurate representations of forest snow processes but model inter-comparison projects have pointed deficiencies, partly due incomplete knowledge of the processes controlling snow cover in forests. The Snow Under Forest project was initiated to enhance knowledge of the complex interactions between snow and vegetation. Two field campaigns, during the winters 2016-17 and 2017-18, have been conducted in a conifer forest bordering the site study of Col de Porte (1325 m asl, French Alps) in order to document the snow accumulation and ablation processes. This paper presents the field site, instrumentation, and collection methods. The observations include: forest characteristics (tree inventory, LIDAR measurements of forest structure, sub-canopy hemispherical photographs…), meteorology (automatic weather station and radiometers array), snow cover and depth (snow poles transect and laser scan), and snow interception by the canopy during precipitation events. The weather station installed under dense canopy during the first campaign has been maintained since then and provides continuous measurements throughout the year since 2018.

The purpose is to develop a reservoir module that will work with any hydrological models and land surface schemes. As part of this work, reservoir data from dozens of reservoirs across the Arctic drainage basin was collected. This project supports the Water Resources Management theme of the Core Modelling and Forecasting Team.

The main objective of this research project is to examine the significance of shallow/deep groundwater flow including the unsaturated zone on surface water flow predictions within the Alder Creek Watershed located in the Grand River Basin using high resolution numerical model simulations. This project is supported by the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

A high resolution, enhanced version of Environment and Climate Change Canada’s MESH (Modélisation Environnementale Communautaire - Surface Hydrology) land surface hydrological model was set up at a spatial resolution of approximately 4 km by 4 km to correspond to the resolution of dynamically downscaled Weather Research Forecast (WRF) atmospheric model outputs for current and future climates in the region. This convection-permitting WRF product used ERA-Interim reanalysis product boundary conditions over 2000 - 2015 to produce realistic, high resolution weather simulations. The pseudo global warming (PGW) approach to dynamical downscaling of future warming projection under RCP8.5 (2086 - 2100), used WRF bounded by ERA-Interim outputs that were perturbed by the mean outcomes of an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model projections. Available land surface data consist of digital elevation models (DEMs), i.e. the hydrologically conditioned HydroSheds DEM that has a spatial resolution of approximately 90 m available at (https://www.mrlc.gov/downloads/sciweb1/shared/hydrosheds), and its derived products including flow direction and drainage density. Soil data was collected from a rasterized version of the Soil Landscapes of Canada (SLC) dataset (https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset). The dataset covers Canada at 90 m spatial resolution and is derived from original data at a scale of 1:1M. This dataset has some missing information for the Bow River Basin, for instance there is no information on the percentages of clay and sand of the first soil layer (0 – 5 cm depth). Landcover data was downloaded from the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) (http://www.cec.org/north-american-land-change-monitoring-system/) covering all of the North America at a resolution of 30 m with 19 land cover classes. The Randolph Glacier Inventory 6.0 data (https://www.glims.org/RGI/rgi60_dl.html), based on Landsat imagery from 2004–06, were used to delineate glacier coverage in the basin. The inventory was generated and manually checked in 2008 (Bolch et al., 2010). Prior to this project, MESH, did not consider the impact of slope and elevation on meteorological forcings below the resolution of the data, which is not a reasonable assumption in mountains. Here, incoming solar radiation was calculated as a function of terrain slope and aspect. Also, precipitation, temperature, pressure, humidity, and longwave radiation were corrected for elevation. The necessary cold regions processes (blowing snow, intercepted snow, sublimation, frozen soil infiltration, slope/aspect impacts on melt rates, glacier ice melt) and water management processes needed to simulate the natural and reservoir-managed streamflow hydrographs in the basin were modelled. Most model parameter values were set based on remote sensing, land surveys and the results and understandings from previous regional hydrological investigations, however forest root depth and stomatal resistance, and soil hydraulic conductivity and channel routing model parameters were calibrated using measured (2006 - 2015) streamflows on the Bow River at Banff, and evaluated (2000 - 2005) at the same stream gauging station.

An ABM was developed to simulate the farmer decision-making process and estimate adoption rates of different BMPs in response to different socio-economic and environmental situations. Six BMPs, including the reduced tillage, the no-till system, grassed waterways, riparian buffer strips, Water and Sediment Control Basin, and windbreaks were focused. Annual Crop Inventory data from 2011 to 2015 were obtained from the Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC), and were used as land-cover data in this study. It is a set of raster data that shows the distribution of different crop types in Canada at a spatial resolution of 30m. The soil type data was obtained from the Soil Survey Complex dataset, provided by the Agriculture Food and Rural Affairs. The digital elevation model (DEM) data was obtained from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Southwestern Ontario Orthophotography Project (SWOOP) 2015 Digital Elevation Model. It is a set of raster graphics with a spatial resolution of 2m that represents the elevation of earth’s surface. The criteria and requirements for installing each BMP were acquired from existing publications. The results obtained from the ABM were compared with results generated from a random generator, which indicates that the model does not make random decisions. The results demonstrated that the developed ABM is robust in simulating farmers’ decision making on BMP application within the Upper Medway Creek Subwatershed. According to the sensitivity analysis, providing subsidies and improving knowledge level of BMPs have positive effects on the implementations of certain BMPs in general.

The Great Lakes Runoff Inter-comparison Project (GRIP) includes a wide range of lumped and distributed models that are used operationally and/or for research purposes across Canada and the United States. Participating models are Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM- Hydro), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro), MEC-Surface & Hydrology (MESH), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), WATFLOOD, HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM). The project aims to run all these models over several regions in Canada with Great Lakes, focusing on Lake Erie and Lake St.Clair, as the initial domain (GRIP-E). This project will also focus on identifying a standard, consistent dataset for model building that all participants in the inter-comparison project can access and then process to generate their model-specific required inputs. This data set is collected for the project titled "Integrated Modelling Program for Canada (IMPC): Theme 1", which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The aim of this research project is to develop an in-situ method to measure hydrological processes in frozen soils through the characterization of coaxial impedance dielectric reflectometry probe response to soil freeze-thaw events. This data set is collected for the project titled Transformative sensor Technologies and Smart Watershed (TTWS), which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The Soil Landscapes of Canada were downloaded from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada website (http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/nsdb/slc/v3.2/index.html). Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada developed the Soil Landscapes of Canada (SLC) version 3.2 to provide information about the country's agricultural soils. For this project data was cropped to Great Lakes and then converted into the NetCDF format. Data are then made available to the project collaborators on a private GitHub. Researchers interested in finding more about the data can email Juliane Mai (University of Waterloo; juliane.mai@uwaterloo.ca)

The Great Lakes Runoff Inter-comparison Project (GRIP) includes a wide range of lumped and distributed models that are used operationally and/or for research purposes across Canada and the United States. Participating models are Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM- Hydro), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro), MEC-Surface & Hydrology (MESH), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), WATFLOOD, HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) The project aims to run all these models over several regions in Canada with Great Lakes, focusing on Lake Erie and Lake St.Clair as the initial domain (GRIP-E). This project will also focus on identifying a standard, consistent dataset for model building that all participants in the inter-comparison project can access and then process to generate their model-specific required inputs. This data set is collected for the project titled "Integrated Modelling Program for Canada (IMPC): Theme 1", which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The objective of this research is to develop a water futures risk assessment framework (WFRA) for boreal users and stakeholders to create a more resilient wildland-society-water nexus in Canada's boreal landscape. Specifically, the sub-project focused on the knowledge gaps surrounding wetland wildfire interactions, since wetlands and wildfire are ubiquitous across the boreal. Fire behaviour in peat deposits and wetlands were assessed through research involving natural fire.

This dataset supports the Global Water Futures project Hydrological Processes in Frozen Soils, which aims to improve understanding of soil freeze-thaw processes and methods of interpreting soil moisture data from instrumentation in frozen soils.

We developed a spatially explicit wetland conservation cost model to estimate the private economic benefit of wetland drainage in an agricultural landscape in Alberta, Canada. The net private benefit of drainage or wetland conservation cost for this study is defined as the present value of net-returns from producing annual crops on the drained wetland basin (with a canola-spring wheat rotation), less the cost of wetland drainage, over 20 years. The expected spatial heterogeneity in wetland conservation cost is driven mainly by the heterogeneity in crop yield and wetland drainage cost in the study area. A relative soil productivity weight was used to account for the heterogeneity in crop yields across the landscape in the study area. The relative soil productivity weight was derived from the land assessment values and the variability in canola yields in Alberta. A surface drainage cost function was developed to estimate the surface drainage cost per acre for the ith wetland, and it is the sum of the fixed cost and the variable cost of surface drainage. We assumed a surface drainage fixed cost of $200 for the 20-year lifetime of the drainage project. The fixed cost of drainage represents all other costs that could be associated with surface wetland drainage, including administrative costs and maintenance/rehabilitation costs. The variable cost component of the surface drainage cost is the product of the relative distance variable and the distance coefficient. A value of 100 was chosen for the distance coefficient such that the maximum (minimum) drainage cost across the study area will be $600 ($200) (equation 2); since the minimum and maximum relative distances of wetlands to watercourse are 0 and 3.99, respectively. We calculated the relative distance variable as the ratio of the distance of a wetland to a watercourse (meters) to the average distance (meters) of all the wetlands to watercourses in the study area. To estimate the present value of a 20-year crop production planning horizon a 7% private discount rate was used to discount the annual net returns of the Canola and Spring wheat rotation (including the cost of wetland drainage). Moreover, using the Alberta’s Relative Wetland Value (RWV) Spatial Information, which is a measure of the ecosystem benefits of a wetland, we categorize all wetland basins located in a given quarter section in a four-level scale (A, B, C or D) whereby A has the highest ecosystem values and D has the lowest ecosystem values. The ecosystem values are assessed on four characteristics: hydrological health function, water quality function, ecological health function, and human use function of the wetlands. To characterize the range and pattern of wetland conservation costs in the study area we applied the net-present benefit of drainage formula to the natural resource conservation targeting scenarios, which are a) high beneficial wetlands (A and B wetlands), b) least cost (wetlands with low conservation cost), c) low benefit (C and D wetlands) and d) no targeting (randomly conserving 50% of wetlands in a quarter-section. One major output of our model is a supply curve for total wetland area, which shows the potential cumulative area of wetlands that could be conserved in the study area given conservation costs, at the margin, for the different targeting scenarios. We also showed, with a map, the degree of spatial heterogeneity of wetland conservation costs of wetlands in the study area.

Related Publication: Jasiak, I., Wiklund, J. A., Leclerc, E., Telford, J. V., Couture, R. M., Venkiteswaran, J. J., Hall, R. I., & Wolfe, B. B. (2021). Evaluating spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic, antimony, and lead deposition from legacy gold mine emissions using lake sediment records. Applied Geochemistry, 105053. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2021.105053

Jasiak, Izabela; Wolfe, Brent; Hall, Roland; Venkiteswaran, Jason, 2021, "Data for: Evaluating spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic, antimony, and lead deposition from legacy gold mine emissions using lake sediment records", https://doi.org/10.5683/SP2/TNYTQL

This data set was developed in order to estimate the total phosphorus budget for the St. Clair – Detroit River system for 1998 through 2016, to support the implementation of the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) on reducing Lake Erie’s phosphorus inputs. This study also identified, for the first time, that loads from resuspended Lake Huron sediment were likely not always detected in US and Canadian monitoring programs, due to mismatches in sampling and resuspension event frequencies, substantially underestimating the load. This additional load increased over time due to climate-induced decreases in Lake Huron ice cover and increases in winter storm frequencies. Given this more complete load inventory, we estimated that to reach a 40% reduction in the Detroit River TP load to Lake Erie, accounting for the missed load, point and non-point sources other than that coming from Lake Huron, and the atmosphere would have to be reduced by at least 50%. Note, this data set was created for a project led by the University of Michigan, and also affiliated with goals of "Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

Climate change risk assessment of water resources systems under deeply uncertain futures demands a comprehensive set of future scenarios to test the current and proposed management/policy schemes in the basin. This dataset provides a set of future climate scenarios over the Canadian Rocky Mountains where 80% of water in the Saskatchewan River Basin initiates. The dataset uses a multi-site stochastic weather generator to produce scenarios demonstrating plausible climatic changes over the 2080-2100 period. The final format of the dataset will be comma separated value (.csv) files. The following lists some of the datasets used in producing weather scenarios: • The weather generator model is set up based on the daily observed data of the Canadian ANSUPLIN dataset (obtained by Jefferson Wong) from the beginning of 1980 to the end of 2013. • The CORDEX-NA project datasets - which are Regional Climate Models (RCMs) projections over North America - are used to understand the changes in the future climate (using 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 RCPs - accessed online): https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/search/cordexsearch.html?variables=prec&variables=tmax&variables=tmin&_variables=on&_variables=on&_variables=on&_variables=on&_variables=on&experiments=rcp45&experiments=rcp85&_experiments=on&drivers=CNRM-CM5&drivers=CanESM2&_drivers=on&models=CanRCM4&models=CRCM5-UQAM&_models=on&freqs=day&_freqs=on&grids=NAM-44i&_grids=on&bcs=raw&_bcs=on

The Great Lakes Runoff Inter-comparison Project (GRIP) includes a wide range of lumped and distributed models that are used operationally and/or for research purposes across Canada and the United States. Participating models are Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM- Hydro), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro), MEC-Surface & Hydrology (MESH), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), WATFLOOD, HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM). The project aims to run all these models over several regions in Canada with Great Lakes, focusing on Lake Erie and Lake St.Clair as the initial domain (GRIP-E). This project will also focus on identifying a standard, consistent dataset for model building that all participants in the inter-comparison project can access and then process to generate their model-specific required inputs. This data set is collected for the project titled "Integrated Modelling Program for Canada (IMPC): Theme 1", which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The main goal of this project is to accurately estimate streamflow from creeks and tributaries to the main stem of Grand River. The estimated streamflow will be used to estimate non-point nitrogen loads to the main stem of the river and in order to improve the estimation of nitrogen loads from Grand River to Lake Erie. This project supports the Water Quality Modelling theme of the Core Modelling and Forecasting Team.

This dataset was developed in order to improve the understanding of long-term nutrient retention within reservoirs and to quantify the potential contributions of reservoir nutrient legacies to current and future water quality in watersheds around the Great Lakes. Specifically, this dataset will provide information on the accumulation of nutrients within the reservoirs at Lake Belwood and Conestogo Lake located within the Grand River Watershed. Note, that this data set is collected for the project titled "Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The suspended sediment and turbidity data will be used to support model development. This data was collected for the Global Water Futures project We need more than just water: Assessing sediment limitation in a large freshwater delta.

The purpose of this project was to explore the impact of Alnus alnobetula shrub growth on ecosystem function and to assess the spatial variability of that impact at the taiga-tundra ecotone.

GeoNetwork record: www.gwfnet.net/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/c6178a0f-16fd-4013-98ae-9b04a7c9b405 Tracking ID under eDNA project: UofS-eDNA-dataset-metadata-9

The main aim of this research is to understand the within-lake dynamics, transport, and retention of nutrients, particularly total and soluble reactive phosphorous, in Lake St. Clair. This data set will support the project titled "Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The purpose of this research is to better develop end points, related to the protection of the valued ecosystem components, in the southern Grand River watershed. We are examining the life cycle parameters of walleye, to better develop and interpret biomonitoring endpoints. This data set is collected for the project titled “Lake Futures: Enhancing Adaptive Capacity and Resilience of Lakes and Their Watersheds: Work Package 3". Lake Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund. This researcher is co-supervised by Drs. Mark Servos and Rebecca Rooney.

In this project, we are aiming to understand how landscape, lake, and fish ecology explain variation in fish mercury (Hg levels). Our results will identify critical variables for future cumulative impact monitoring, and enable more informed predictions of how fish Hg levels in the Dehcho region will respond to continued environmental change. Decision-makers will use our results to develop long-term monitoring strategies, identify lakes that are most vulnerable to future increases in fish Hg levels, refine consumption advisories, and identify lakes with the safest and healthiest sources of food fish. This data set is collected to support the project titled “Northern Water Futures, Objective 2". Northern Water Futures is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund

Small lake systems are a critical part of regional hydrology and ecology throughout Canada, and are easily influenced by various physical processes. As the effects of climate change continue to threaten inland water ecosystems, small lakes provide an invaluable opportunity for environmental monitoring. This dataset includes high resolution unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery, as well as some biogeochemical water property data for Sunfish Lake, a small lake in Waterloo (ON). This data set will also support the project titled "Transformative sensor Technologies and Smart Watersheds (TTWS): Work Package 2". TTWS is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) have had recent widespread application to capture high resolution information on snow processes and the data herein was collected to address the sub-canopy snow depth challenge. Previous demonstrations of snow depth mapping with UAV Structure from Motion (SfM) and airborne-lidar have focused on non-vegetated surfaces or reported large errors in the presence of vegetation. In contrast, UAV-lidar systems have high-density point clouds, measure returns from a wide range of scan angles, and so have a greater likelihood of successfully sensing the sub-canopy snow depth. The effectiveness of UAV-lidar and UAV-SfM in mapping snow depth in both open and forested terrain was tested with data collected in a 2019 field campaign in the Canadian Rockies Hydrological Observatory, Alberta and at Canadian Prairie sites near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. The data archived here comprises the raw point clouds from the UAV-SfM and UAV-lidar platforms, generated digital surface models, and survey data used for accuracy assessment for the field campaign in question as reported in Harder et al., 2019. This dataset was generated by the work of the Smart Water Systems Laboratory within the Centre for Hydrology at the University of Saskatchewan. This contributes to the objectives of a number of Pillar 3 Global Water Futures projects including Mountain Water Futures and the Transformative Technology and Smart Watersheds.

The project aims at developing computationally efficient methods and strategies for large-scale parameter estimation. These methods are to be process-based, computationally efficient and lead to robust realistic and spatially transferable parameters. This project focus on the version of Variable Infiltration Capacity model developed at PCIC (VICGL). This model is forced by the daily gridded PNWNAmet data. This project supports the Geospatial Intelligence theme of the Core Modelling and Forecasting Team.

The main goal of this project is to validated the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) so that the ice cover of Lake Erie at large and small scales can be simulated. Note, that this research is part of the project titled "Evaluation of ice models in Large Lakes using Three Dimensional Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ice Models", which is a Pillar 1-2 project under the Global Water Futures (GWF) Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund (CFREF).

The main goal of this research project is to characterize the vegetation diversity in mountain peatlands, since vegetation is a great indicator of wetland health due to its sensitivity to variation in environmental conditions. This data set provides species richness and percent cover data of vascular plants and bryophytes identified, to species level surveyed from one meter quadrats. Redundancies were employed to reduce sampling bias in percent cover estimates, and reduce the likelihood of missed species identifications. It also characterizes shrub and tree canopies, and canopy characteristics along several transects located in the Elbow, Ghost, and Jumping Pound Watersheds in the Upper Bow Basin in Alberta Canada. This data set is collected for the project titled “Future Water for the Mountain West", which is a Pillar 3 project under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

Chris Spence Point of Contact, Principal Investigator chris.spence@canada.ca Environment and Climate Change Canada Jared Wolfe Point of Contact, Project Manager jared.wolfe@usask.ca University of Saskatchewan John Pomeroy Collaborator University of Saskatchewan Colin Whitfield Collaborator University of Saskatchewan Kevin Shook Collaborator University of Saskatchewan Balew Mekonnen Originator Associated Engineering Zhihua He Researcher University of Saskatchewan Emily Cavaliere Researcher University of Saskatchewan Chrystal Mantyka-Pringle Researcher Wildlife Conservation Society Helen Baulch Collaborator University of Saskatchewan Robert Clark Collaborator Canadian Wildlife Service

Prairie Water is an interdisciplinary project that prioritizes research to address pressing water security challenges and knowledge gaps in order to enhance the resilience of prairie communities. The project’s objectives and research plans are informed by working with partners from governments, communities, non-profit organisations, and industry groups. The dataset contributes to work packages 1.2, or A(i), under Phase II of Prairie Water, “analyzing future climate and land use change using Virtual Watershed modelling”. The dataset aims to assess hydrological sensitivity of Canadian Prairie catchments to climate with seven temperature scenarios and five precipitation scenarios, and contribute to our understanding of the hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological response of prairie watersheds to climate and land management changes.

This dataset was collected by City of Richmond Hill from 1996 to 2020 for Lake Wilcox. Water chemistry parameters for Lake Wilcox in both epilimnion and hypolimnion zones, which include concentrations of major ions (sodium, potassium, magnesium, calcium, chloride, sulfate, and dissolved inorganic carbon), nutrients (N and P species), heavy metals (manganese and iron), as well as alkalinity. Additionally, datasets include profiles of pH, temperature, electroconductivity and dissolved oxygen from 0 to 17 m of the depth of Lake Wilcox. Dataset will be used to support projects under the Global Water Futures Program.

Properties of different water resources components such as reservoirs, hydropower, irrigation and non-irrigation demand, environmental flow requirements, channel (natural and diversion) properties, inflow to the system, national and international water sharing agreements, and system operating policy. Data was collected/prepared based on the existing water management model (WRMM) in Alberta Saskatchewan, using the water management model MODSIM. Other major sources of data involve: -Environment and Climate Change Canada's HYDAT and climate database (HYDAT) -Alberta Environment and Parks [AEP] (1998) South Saskatchewan River Basin historical weekly natural flows-1912 to 1995. Edmonton, AB -Alberta Utilities Commission (2010) Final Report for Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta’s Hydroelectric Energy Resources -TransAlta (2018) Plants in Operation. In: TransAlta Corp. https://www.transalta.com/facilities/plants-operation/. Accessed 4 Jan 2018 -Saskatchewan Water Security Agency [SWSA] (2012) Lake Diefenbaker Reservoir Operations: Context and Objectives -AEP (2007) Current and future water use in Alberta. Edmonton, AB -AEP (2018) Modified Operations Agreement with TransAlta. In: Alberta Environ. Park. Gov. Alberta. http://aep.alberta.ca/water/programs-and-services/flood-mitigation/flood-mitigation-projects/bow-river-basin.aspx. Accessed 21 Feb 2019 -Government of Alberta (2019) Alberta irrigation information. https://open.alberta.ca/publications/3295832. Accessed 10 Jan 2019 -Kulshreshtha S, Nagy C, Bogdan A (2012) Present and Future Water Demand in Selected Saskatchewan River Basins. Saskatchewan Watershed Agency, Regina, SK -Saskatchewan Irrigation Projects Association [SIPA] (2009) Irrigation Development in Saskatchewan – The Next Steps -SIPA (2018) Irrigation Development Areas & Districts. In: Saskatchewan Irrig. Proj. Assoc. Inc. http://www.irrigationsaskatchewan.com/SIPA/irrigation-development-areas-districts/. Accessed 5 Jan 2018 -AMEC Earth and Environmental Limited (AMEC 2009) South Saskatchewan River Basin in Alberta Water Supply Study. Lethbridge, AB -Clipperton GK, Koning CW, Locke AGH, et al (2003) Instream Flow Needs Determinations for the South Saskatchewan River Basin, Alberta, Canada -Halliday R, Faveri G (2009) The St. Mary and Milk rivers: the 1921 order revisited. Can Water Resour J 32:75–92 -Prairie Provinces Water Board [PPWB] (1969) Master Agreement on Apportionment. Regina, SK, Canada -Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development [AARD] (2014) Alberta’s irrigation – a strategy for the future. Lethbridge, AB Data file format: Microsoft Excel Worksheet (.xlsx)

The purpose of this collaborative research project is to develop Traditional Knowledge (TK) indicators of "good" and "bad" water in order to explore the similarities and differences between the western science concept of "safe to drink" and the TK concept of "good to drink".

While Indigenous communities recognise western science (WS) standards for drinking water quality, potability as a concept is not sufficient to address the Indigenous concepts of "good" or "bad" in relation to water. The purpose of this collaborative research project is to develop Traditional Knowledge (TK) indicators of "good" and "bad" water in order to explore the similarities and differences between the WS concept of "safe to drink" and the TK concept of "good to drink". This will be achieved through an exploration of water-related health, how human health (encompassing physical, spiritual, mental, and emotional health) is affected by "good" and "bad" water, development of appropriate TK indicators, and community case studies. Through this process and its outcomes, communities will be able to better understand and assess water-related health in Indigenous communities through a TK system and be able to share this with government agencies currently responsible for water management, remediation, and quality monitoring.

The WRF western Canada simulations (CTL-WRF-WCA and PGW-WRF-WCA) are bias-corrected to GEM-CaPA using a multivariate quantile mapping method that correct multiple climate variables of model simulation to observed/target variables through N‐dimensional probability density function (Cannon 2018, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3580-6; MBCn R-package). The following atmospheric variables are currently available for western Canada at 0.125 degree resolution: precipitation flux, temperature, downward long wave flux, downward short wave flux, surface pressure, mixing ratio, wind speed. These data are in NetCDF format. The description of original WRF simulations: the Weather Research and Forecasting model Version 3.6.1 ( the model source code is accessible from http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/downloads.html) was used to simulate the historical (2000-2015) and projected climate (RCP8.5) over western Canada with a convection-permitting resolution of 4 km. The WRF model is fully compressible and nonhydrostatic and uses the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamical solvers. The model domain is composed of 699 x 639 grid points with 4-km horizontal resolution to cover western Canada. The atmospheric simulation consists of hourly historical climate scenario (ctl-wrf-wca) from 2000-10-01 to 2015-09-30 at 4km spatial resolution. The model simulations employed several parameterization schemes, including Thompson microphysics scheme (Thompson et al., 2008), the Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer scheme, the Noah land surface model (Chen and Dudhia, 2001), and the CAM3 radiative transfer scheme (Collins et al., 2004). The deep cumulus parameterization was turned off because with a 4-km horizontal resolution the model can explicitly resolve deep convection and simulate convective storms. The convection-permitting model produces precipitation more realistically by directly resolving convections. Subgrid cloud cover was also disabled. The control experiment (CTL), a retrospective/control simulation, aimed to reproduce the current climate statistics in terms of variability and mean state from October 1, 2000 to 30 September 2015. This control simulation was forced using 6-hourly 0.7 degree ERA-Interim reanalysis data (Dee et al., 2011) directly.

The Weather Research and Forecasting model Version 3.6.1 ( the model source code is accessible from http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/downloads.html) was used to simulate the historical (2000-2015) and projected climate (RCP8.5) over western Canada with a convection-permitting resolution of 4 km. The WRF model is fully compressible and nonhydrostatic and uses the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamical solvers. The model domain is composed of 699 x 639 grid points with 4-km horizontal resolution to cover western Canada. The atmospheric simulation consists of hourly historical climate scenario (ctl-wrf-wca) from 2000-10-01 to 2015-09-30 at 4km spatial resolution. The model simulations employed several parameterization schemes, including Thompson microphysics scheme (Thompson et al., 2008), the Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer scheme, the Noah land surface model (Chen and Dudhia, 2001), and the CAM3 radiative transfer scheme (Collins et al., 2004). The deep cumulus parameterization was turned off because with a 4-km horizontal resolution the model can explicitly resolve deep convection and simulate convective storms. The convection-permitting model produces precipitation more realistically by directly resolving convections. Subgrid cloud cover was also disabled. The control experiment (CTL), a retrospective/control simulation, aimed to reproduce the current climate statistics in terms of variability and mean state from October 1, 2000 to 30 September 2015. This control simulation was forced using 6-hourly 0.7 degree ERA-Interim reanalysis data (Dee et al., 2011) directly. The following atmospheric variables are currently available for western Canada: grid scale precipitation, temperature, latent heat flux, upward heat flux, upward moisture flux, downward long wave flux, downward short wave flux, surface pressure, mixing ratio, U component of the 10-m wind ( along grid x axis) and V-component of the 10-m wind ( along grid Y axis). These data are in NetCDF format and can be downloaded via the Cuizinart Platform (http://cuizinart.io).

Li, Y., Li, Z., Zhang, Z., Chen, L., Kurkute, S., Scaff, L., and Pan, X. (2019) High-Resolution Regional Climate Modeling and Projection over Western Canada using a Weather Research Forecasting Model with a Pseudo-Global Warming Approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-201, in review.

The Weather Research Forecasting model can simulate weather systems with spatial scales ranging from a few metres to thousands of kilometres and is suitable for both operational forecasting and atmospheric research. To assess the hydroclimatic risks posed by climate change in western Canada, a retrospective simulation (CTL) and a pseudo-global warming (PGW) dynamical downscaling of future warming projection under RCP8.5 from an ensemble of CMIP5 climate model projections using a convection-permitting 4-km WRF model. The convection-permitting resolution of the model avoids the error-prone convection parameterization by explicitly resolving cumulus plumes. The CTL-WRF-WCA dataset contains the control simulation of the historical period 2000-2015. This data set will be used support atmospheric research objectives within the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

This project encompasses the first evaluation to be conducted on a food processing trailer used to process wild game. The purpose of this evaluation is to inform the community of what the potential of the trailer is for processing wild game.

The Grand River watershed is the largest watershed in southern Ontario, and its resident population is expected to increase over 50% by 2050. Very little research to date has focused on using eDNA metabarcoding to monitor fish and amphibian communities in the Grand River watershed. This research will compare results from eDNA metabarcoding against results from conventional fish and amphibian survey methods to develop a field-tested eDNA metabarcoding monitoring protocol specific to the Grand River watershed. This data set is collected for the Pillar 3 project titled “Next Generation Solutions to Ensure Healthy Water Resources for Future Generations”, under the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund. This researcher is co-supervised by Drs. Barbara Katzenback and Paul Craig.

Detailed Model Setup: https://github.com/CH-Earth/summaWorkflow_public Above link contains scripts to install, set up and run the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA, Clark et al., 2015a,b) and mizuRoute (Mizukami et al., 2016) to generate hydrologic simulations for a given domain. Documentation: https://ral.ucar.edu/projects/summa https://summa.readthedocs.io/en/latest/ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015WR017198

ATERL-ML-1 Bio-Rad CFX-96 Realtime PCR (x2) Used to run plates for quantifying gene expression and covid-19 in wastewater per sample $600 $690 $930 ATERL-ML-2 Automated plate loader Loads plates for analysis in the 96 touch per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-3 Bio-Rad CFX- OPUS Realtime PCR (x2) Used to run plates for quantifying gene expression and covid-19^in wastewater per sample $600 $690 $930 ATERL-ML-4 Qiagen Digital PCR Quantifies nucleic acids per sample $800 $920 $1,240 ATERL-ML-5 PCR workstation Used to prepare reagents for PCR and plate them per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-6 Bio-Rad T100 thermocycler Used for PCR gene expression per sample $100 $115 $155 ATERL-ML-7 Biological safety cabinet Used to prepare, extract samples for various projects per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-8 NIMBUS automated liquid handler Plates mastermix and samples for covid-19 and other projects per sample $600 $690 $930 ATERL-ML-9 Nanodrop (Thermofisher NanoDrop microvolume spectrophotometers) Measures total RNA, DNA and proteins for various measures^including covid-19 in wastewater per sample $100 $115 $155 ATERL-ML-10 Bio-Rad plate sealer Seals plates to be run with qPCR per plate $10 $12 $16 ATERL-ML-11 Refrigerated centrifuges Used to centrifuge samples that require refrigeration for covid- 19 in wastewater per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-12 MaxQ 6000 incubator Incubation of yeast cells for determination of total erogenicity of wastewater (YES assay) per day $100 $115 $155 ATERL-ML-13 Flake ice machine Keeps PCR samples cold per day $20 $23 $31 ATERL-ML-14 Molecular Devices M3 spectrophotometer plate reader Many uses. ELISAs, YES assay, other cell cultures per day $100 $115 $155 ATERL-ML-15 Perkin Elmer 3110 Tricarb liquid scintillation counter Radiation measurements. H3, C13, I125 etc. per sample $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-16 QIAcube Connect Extracts RNA/DNA for various kits per day $200 $230 $310 ATERL-ML-17 Laminar flow hood Used to prepare and extract samples for YES assay per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-18 Small Eppendorf refrigerated centrifuge Extraction of RNA/DNA samples for covid-19 per day $10 $12 $16 ATERL-ML-19 Sonicator Cleaning glassware --- --- --- --- ATERL-ML-20 Various microscopes Otolith age determination, histology, cell culture per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-21 Supelco manual SPE manifolds Extraction of PPCPs from water samples per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-22 Homogenizers for tissue Homogenizes tissue samples prior to extraction per day $10 $12 $16 ATERL-ML-23 pH meters Measures pH per day $20 $23 $31 ATERL-ML-24 Conductivity meters Measures conductivity per day $20 $23 $31 ATERL-ML-25 DO meters Measures DO per day $20 $23 $31 ATERL-ML-26 YSI handheld multimeters Measures water quality parameters in stream and in aquatic facility for various projects per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-27 Small centrifuges Used to centrifuge samples for RNA/DNA extraction and PCR. Measures hemaocrit per day $30 $35 $47 ATERL-ML-28 Vortex mixers Used to shake samples for preparing samples for extraction per day $10 $12 $16 ATERL-ML-29 Waterbaths Used for incubating samples as needed per day $10 $12 $16 ATERL-ML-30 Orbital shakers Mixing and shaking of various samples. Used with YES assay per day $10 $12 $16 ATERL-ML-31 Hotplates Used to keep samples/reagents at certain temperatures for various protocols per day $10 $12 $16 ATERL-ML-32 Metler Toledo analytical balance Measuring analytical standards per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-33 Sartorious analytical balance Measuring analytical standards per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-34 Lab balances of various sizes Used to measure weight of chemicals, tissues, organisms, etc. per day $30 $35 $47 ATERL-ML-35 Dionex SE500 Nitrogen evaporator Evaporates samples to dryness before reconstitution per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-36 Dionex Autotrace for SPE extractions Automated SPE for PPCPs and hormones per day $200 $230 $310 ATERL-ML-37 Dionex ASE for solid extractions Automated accelerated solvent extraction of solids like fish tissue for PPCP analysis per day $200 $230 $310 ATERL-ML-38 Dionex Rocket evaporator Evaporation of samples per day $50 $58 $78 ATERL-ML-39 Agilent 2200 Tapestation Measures RNA/DNA quality per sample $100 $115 $155 ATERL-ML-40 Agilent 1260 LC with UV detector and fraction collector Separates a variety of chemicals for toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) studies. Collects specific fractions/peaks of individual chemicals. per sample $500 $575 $775 ATERL-ML-41 Agilent 5975 GC and 6890 MS Analysis of volatile analytes like PAHs per sample $800 $920 $1,240 ATERL-ML-42 Agilent 1260 LC with Agilent 6460 Triple Quad MS Analysis of PPCP, hormones, drugs of abuse per sample $1,200 $1,380 $1,860 ATERL-ML-43 Cytation plate reader Plate reader with imaging capabilities used for cell culture per sample $300 $345 $465

This facility generated baseline and time-sensitive data on lake ice, snow cover, land cover to support the development of statistical modeling and machine learning of the relationship between ice extent, environmental drivers, and water quality, the response of lakes to contemporary and projected climate conditions research of emerging spectrum of environmental issues throughout cold regions, applying remote sensing methods and mathematical modeling.

Baltzer, Jennifer Project PI Spence, Chris Site PI ECCC

MacVicar, Bruce Project PI Site PI

Baltzer, Jennifer Project PI Wilfrid Laurier University Rudolph, David Site PI University of Waterloo Baltzer Jenn Site PI Wilfrid Laurier University

Carey, Sean Project PI Pomeroy, John Site PI

TTSW Project PI Pomeroy, John Site PI

Baulch, Helen Project PI Site PI

Servos, Mark Project PI Site PI

Servos, Mark Project PI Site PI

Servos, Mark Project PI Site PI

Servos, Mark Project PI Site PI

Servos, Mark Project PI Site PI

Servos, Mark Project PI Site PI

Servos, Mark Project PI Site PI

AWF Project PI Helgason, Warren Site PI Fonstad, Terrance Site PI Pomeroy, John Site PI

Carey, Sean Project PI Pomeroy, John Site PI

Baltzer, Jennifer Project PI Swanson, Heidi (UW/Laurier) Site PI

Van Cappellen, Philippe Project PI Van Cappellen, Philippe Site PI

Rezanezhad, Fereidoun Project PI Wagner-Riddle, Claudia Site PI

Van Cappellen, Philippe Project PI Parsons, Chris Site PI

BWF Project PI Ireson, Andrew Site PI

Baltzer, Jennifer Project PI Baltzer, Jennifer Site PI Wilfrid Laurier University

Waddington, Mike Project PI Site PI

MacVicar, Bruce Project PI Site PI

Duguay, Claude Project PI Site PI

Waddington, Mike Project PI Waddington, Mike Site PI

Baltzer, Jennifer Project PI Marsh, Phil (Laurier) Site PI

Duguay, Claude Project PI Schiff, Sherry Site PI

Baltzer, Jennifer Project PI Marsh, Phil (Laurier) Site PI

Baltzer, Jennifer Project PI Ka'a'Gee Tu FN -- Spring, Andrew / Swanson Heidi (Laurier/UW) Site PI

Duguay, Claude Project PI Helgason, Warren Site PI

Fisk, Aaron Project PI University of Windsor Vandergoot, Chris Project PI Michigan State University (MSU) Site PI

Xenopoulos, Maggie Project PI Trent University Wells, Mathew Project PI University of Toronto Scarborough (UTSC) Site PI

Fisk, Aaron Project PI University of Windsor Hobrook, Chris Project PI USGS Site PI

Fisk, Aaron Project PI University of Windsor Johnson, Tim Project PI OMNRF Site PI

Rennie, Mike Project PI Lakehead University Site PI

MacVicar, Bruce Project PI Site PI

BWF Project PI Ireson, Andrew Site PI

BWF Project PI Ireson, Andrew Site PI

Baltzer, Jennifer Project PI Wolfe, Brent Site PI Wilfrid Laruier University Hall, Roland Site PI University of Waterloo

Carey, Sean Project PI Pomeroy, John Site PI

Rezanezhad, Fereidoun Project PI Rezanezhad, Fereidoun Site PI

Giesy, John Project PI Jardine, Tim Site PI

Baltzer, Jennifer Project PI Sonnentag, Oliver (UdeM) Site PI

Whitfield, Colin Project PI Spence, Chris Project PI Ireson, Andrew Site PI

AWF Project PI Macrae, Merrin Site PI

Baltzer, Jennifer Project PI Marsh, Phil Site PI Wilfrid Laurier University

Rezanezhad, Fereidoun Project PI Webster, Kara Site PI

Arain, Altaf Project PI Site PI

Van Cappellen, Philippe Project PI Hitch, Calvin Site PI

Van Cappellen, Philippe Project PI Hitch, Calvin Site PI

Van Cappellen, Philippe Project PI Withers, William Site PI

Van Cappellen, Philippe Project PI Credit Vally Authority Site PI

Van Cappellen, Philippe Project PI Lam, Bu Site PI

MacVicar, Bruce Project PI Site PI

Carey, Sean Project PI

Carey, Sean Project PI

Carey, Sean Project PI

Carey, Sean Project PI

Carey, Sean Project PI

Carey, Sean Project PI

Vision -------- The dynamic nature of Water Science research—in which approaches to observation, modelling, and prediction of Earth systems are continuously evolving—shapes our present data and re-shapes our legacy data collected over many years through reanalysis. Our interactions with well-managed data--past and present--leads us to new discoveries, new made-to-order solutions, and a sustainable process of iterative refinement of knowledge and research questions. This process inevitably results in future data which will become tomorrow’s important legacy. Global Water Futures (GWF) is thus steadfastly committed to data stewardship and, to this end, has created this template-based form of data catalogue, GWFNet, able to incorporate legacy information and future information (of a to-be-determined form) as easily as it handles information from the present day. The Vision for GWFNet is to enable a variety of information seekers--from the general public to highly specialized scientists--to easily zero in on trails of information and obtain publications, data sets, near-real-time hydrometeorological data sources, along with other related information that delivers context to the results associated with their searches (including basins, observatories, research sites, stations, model inventories, software, principal investigators, projects, and much more). GWFNet has been spawned as an output of Global Water Futures, but its mission is to persistently bridge and synthesize information from Canadian programs on Water Science from the past ( www.gwfnet.net/Metadata/Record/Legacy%20Projects ): - MAGS: The Mackenzie Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), - DRI: Drought Research Initiative, - IP3: Improving Processes and Parameterization for Prediction in Cold Regions Hydrology, - CCRN: Changing Cold Regions Network, and - INARCH: The International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology); present: - GWF: Global Water Futures ( www.gwf.usask.ca ); and future: - Program (to be determined). Today’s legacy is tomorrow’s future! About -------- GWFNet is a catalogue of linked, template-based information records on Water Science associated with the Global Water Futures program, other important foundational programs that led to Global Water Futures, and to follow-on programs that will be inspired by Global Water Futures. GWFNet is, and always will be, under active development. Its evolution is gradual, continuous, and governed (and strongly motivated) by user satisfaction and whatever enhancements are necessary for the representation of information sought after by the programs it serves. GWFNet is designed to endure long after Global Water Futures and to serve as an important information resource in follow-on Water Science programs inspired by Global Water Futures. Video -------- www.gwfnet.net/fileserver/T-2021-12-12-Z1QwFfKmMC0uRRuaZ1XEoDlA/GWFNet_Part_A_Introduction.mp4

A: Calibrated Model Setup for the Yukon ^with Project Report and manuscript Yukon River ^basin MESH 0.125 degrees B: Climate and landuse change ^Simulation Results for the Mackenzie Mackenzie River ^basin MESH 0.125 degrees

North America, Canada, North-West Territories Lead Investigator: Chris Spence Baker Creek is a series of interconnected lakes draining an area of 150 km2 north of Great Slave Lake that is typical of Canadian Shield drainage basins. The landscape is taiga woodland and boreal forest. It has three meteorological stations and one streamflow gauging station. The Baker Creek watershed is located in the Northwest Territories (NWT) of Canada, with the outlet defined by the Water Survey of Canada (WSC) hydrometric gauging station 07SB013 - Baker Creek at Outlet of Lower Martin Lake - located approximately 7 km north of the capital city of Yellowknife, NWT. The Baker Creek watershed is a sub-basin of the Great Slave Lake watershed and has a gross drainage area of approximately 155 km2 (Spence et al., 2010). The basin is characterized by a number of large lakes drained by short streams with a highly variable flow regime due to the variability of storage capacity in the basin (Spence, 2006; Phillips, Spence, & Pomeroy, 2011). The basin is in an area of discontinuous permafrost, which also alters the runoff regime depending on the soil conditions (Kokelj, 2003; Guan, Spence, & Westbrook, 2010). The average streamflow at the basin outlet is 0.24 m3 s-1 and annual runoff ratio is 0.17; however, the runoff ratio has been observed to vary by up to three orders of magnitude, as observed by a runoff ratio of 0.005 in 2015 and 0.34 in 2001 (Spence & Hedstrom, 2018; Spence & Woo, 2002). The Baker Creek watershed is largely undeveloped, and there are a number of research stations in the basin (Spence and Hedstrom, 2018). Research by the University of Saskatchewan and Carleton University has been occurring in the basin since 2004, with some water quality data available from 1995 (Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN), 2019; Spence and Hedstrom, 2018). The basin is comprised of primarily exposed bedrock (39.9%) and water bodies (22.6%), with coniferous forest hillslopes and some deciduous forest comprising just over 21%, and peatlands and wetlands making up the remaining 16% (Spence and Hedstrom, 2018). The bedrock is moderately to highly fractured, and mineral soils (silty and sandy texture) are present in the fissures and valley from bedrock weathering and erosion (Phillips, Spence, & Pomeroy, 2011). Overburden thickness ranges from 1 m to more than 10 m (Spence & Hedstrom, 2018), and peat thickness ranges from a thin layer to about 1.2 m (Guan, Westbrook, & Spence, 2010). The area experiences a subarctic climate with short, cool summers and long, cold winters. The basin receives an average of 289 mm of precipitation annually, approximately 41% as snowfall (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2019b). See also https://wiki.usask.ca/display/MESH/Baker+Creek MESH Input Files: https://github.com/MESH-Model/MESH_Project_Baker_Creek

Winter on the prairies is not usually a time to worry about drought, and fire. At least, it wasn't. But large swaths of the country, from BC through Ontario, are currently seeing a lack of snow and water accumulation that is "unprecedented in modern times," according to an expert. In one BC town, the drought is so severe residents are using bottled water. The Alberta government is already making water restriction plans for the spring and summer to come. The conditions will be perfect for a wildfire season that could eclipse last year's records. And farmers will be making choices on which crops to keep, and which to let die. Welcome to the new world, where a large chunk of Canada ... simply doesn't have enough water. GUEST: John Pomeroy, hydrologist, Professor in the department of Geography and Planning at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada Research Chair in Water Resources and Climate Change TRANSCRIPT: Jordan Heath-Rawlings: You no doubt, remember last year’s forest fire season, it would be impossible to forget. But did you know that some of those fires, which in your experience are months in the past, are still burning right now? They are smouldering under brush and leaves hibernating is perhaps one way to put it. They are just waiting for conditions to be warm enough and dry enough to spring back to life. And I got some bad news about that. CLIP: John Pomeroy So it’s a vast, vast area of Canada that is in great peril in 2024 for extreme ideological droughts, something unprecedented In modern times, Jordan: There is not enough snow, there is not enough water, not enough of what we would consider a normal healthy winter. And that means, as you might imagine, a bad fire season to come, but not just a bad fire season. It means a bad growing season. It means farmers making tough decisions about which crops to save and which to let die. It means livestock calls and water restrictions. It means for some communities already questions about what to do when the water runs out. These are not questions we are used to asking in this country, especially not in the middle of winter, but they are questions. We are going to be asking more winters than not from now on. So Canada’s dry, our world is changing. Here is what that means for all of us. I’m Jordan Heath Rowlings. This is The Big Story. John Pomeroy is a professor in the Department of Geography and Planning at the University of Saskatchewan. He is a Canada research chair in water resources and climate change. Hi John. John Pomeroy: Hello. Jordan: Thanks for finding some time for us today. John Pomeroy: Pleasure to speak to you. Jordan: I wanted to begin because this is where it dawned on me how serious this was by asking you about McBride British Columbia. Are you aware of what’s been happening there? John Pomeroy: Yes. Yeah, McBride is really almost a canary in the coal mine for the Canadian Rockies. It’s been running out of water and they’ve been looking at alternative water supplies and this is surprising for a Canadian Rockies community. We think of the Rockies as the water towers for Western and northern Canada and here have a small town there that’s running out and it’s because the glaciers that once fed the creek that supply water to it have receded so much that they’re no longer contributing stream flow in the summer. And because of very low snow packs last year and early snow melt and then extreme drought and all this came together and put McBride in a terrible situation, and I’m sure we’ll see many other communities in that situation as time progresses, Jordan: If it’s the canary in the coal mine, how normalized could it become that communities that we just simply assume would have a healthy amount of water are struggling? John Pomeroy: Yes. Well, Calgary Alberta had voluntary water restrictions last summer because the flows on the Bow River were in the summertime and fall the lowest ever recorded. And that’s because of declining glacier contributions to the Bow River, but also a low snow pack that melted about a month early and then fairly dry weather after that in extreme heat. So that’s what the late 21st century looks like. And Calgary this year is very, very worried and talking about mandatory water restrictions and Alberta itself going to stage five drought as a highly likely scenario for 2024. Jordan: In the big picture then, since we’re talking about Alberta and Calgary and possibly the rest of the prairies, what kinds of dryness have we seen across Canada as summer has turned into fall and winter? John Pomeroy: Yeah, it’s rather interesting across Canada. The drought extends from British Columbia to Labrador and from the US border up into the Northwest territories. So its extent is unprecedented and its severity in parts of southern British Columbia, Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan is also unprecedented. That was through the summer and fall. And then moving into early winter, we had the first part of winter without a snow pack at all, which is exceedingly rare for the prairies for southern BC and for much of the rest of central Canada. And that along with very low soil moisture levels, reservoirs that have been depleted already and are some cases five meters below normal levels, groundwater that’s been depleted. It puts us in a precarious situation now that I’m speaking in mid-January. The snow ax in British Columbia are one half of where they should be at this time of year and very similar conditions on the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Alberta. These are the water towers that supply the rivers that flow into bc, the Northwest Territories, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba. So it’s a vast, vast area of Canada that is in great peril in 2024 for extreme hydrological droughts, something unprecedented in modern times. Jordan: How do we quantify how dry a part of the country is? What qualifies as a drought? I’m trying to give our listeners a sense of, I guess how much water is missing or how far away these places are from having a healthy balance. John Pomeroy: Yes, we talk about different types of drought. There is a meteorological drought which will be lack of precipitation and sometimes indices include the excessive heat, which often accompanies drought. And so that’s been very extreme over parts of Western Canada and through the Boreal forest. But then when we talk about agriculture, we’re usually looking at soil moisture and that causes agricultural droughts. And so for instance, in parts of the prairies, soil moisture levels are less than 40% of where they should be at this time of year. And then there’s hydrological drought, which is the flow in the major rivers, the levels of lakes and things like that. Hydrological drought takes longer to form, but it also takes longer to come out of. And that has been record across BC and Alberta and Saskatchewan this year in 2023, lake Diefenbaker, which supplies 70% of Saskatchewan with water received only 28% of its normal inflows from Alberta. And that’s due to the drought and the mountains and planes in Alberta and the heavy irrigation there. And then the wildfires, which covered Canada record amounts in many parts of the country were again caused by the drought. So a drought in the northern forest turns into a wildfire season, right? So drought manifests itself differently depending on how we’re looking at it and what the impacts are. Jordan: Have these unprecedented levels of drought as you just put it, been receiving enough attention in the media and otherwise considering the danger they might represent. John Pomeroy: We’ve been looking at this drought like the blind men and the elephant in the Indian legend. We have been talking about the wildfires or the poor harvest or the low flows of Calgary or BC towns and villages with water restrictions, but we haven’t put it together that these are all manifestations of the same thing. The hottest year in human history in 20 23, 1 of the hottest years in Canadian history, depending where you are in the country, that year we had temperatures of 38 degrees in the northwest territories and then the early snow melts the lack of rain. This was a year that was not only a drought, but it was a year that very closely followed the worst case climate projections for around the year 2100. So this gives us a taste of what climate change might bring to Canada if we don’t get greenhouse gas concentrations reduced very, very quickly. And so it’s a wake up call as well, but it also has challenged our water management systems across the country, the low flows crossing provincial boundaries and territorial boundaries. The challenges in managing Alberta had to suspend water for its irrigation districts for the first time ever at the end of the summer. It affects food security, energy security, Manitoba hydro BC hydro having terrible years with insufficient stream flow to generate hydroelectricity and keep their reservoirs full. The inadequacy of the Columbia River Treaty, which has allowed the Aero Lakes and British Columbia to go to very, very low levels while supplying the Americans according to the terms of the treaty. All these other things need to be looked at and it shows us we need to look at our boundary apportionments, transboundary apportionments, and we need to manage water differently in this country according to river basins what’s called the Integrated River basin Management. Instead of the piecemeal approach we make right now province by province with a very fragmented federal engagement in the whole process and also a process that has so far left indigenous communities and first nations off the table. Jordan: I think most people listening to this or just most Canadians in general would consider Canada an extremely water rich nation. I mean, we’ve even joked on this podcast before about America eventually coming for our water. Do we understand that correctly? And how much danger do these conditions put our simple not even thinking about it, access to potable water in John Pomeroy: Yes, you could look at a map of Canada and you see lots of lakes and sure enough, Canada stores 20% of the world’s fresh water in its lakes, but the flow of water down Canadian rivers is not particularly high and those rivers tend to flow northward up into the Arctic. So where we have excess water is where we do not have our populations, our big populations in the south and the Great Lakes, St. Lawrence in the southern prairies and southern valleys of British Columbia, many of these areas are semi-arid to sub Hewitt, particularly in the West. And the Great Lakes have been reliable so far, but the lakes store lots of water without necessarily having the inflows of water that would’ve been needed for high use. And the Great Lakes were also threatened. The snow packs in the Great Lakes St. Lawrence Basin have been declining precipitously in the last few decades. The warming of the lakes, the lack of ice cover is increasing evaporation. It was just 20 years ago we had serious water problems with low water levels and we can expect those again in the future. So even the great Lake, St. Lawrence is not necessarily secure. And remember, our food security comes largely from the western prairie agriculture and that has been seriously impacted by drought in 2023. This can topple and disable our governments. The government of the Northwest territories had to evacuate the territory due to wildfire. Great Slave Lake is at its lowest level ever recorded and the records go back to the 1930s. Saskatchewan went from a budget surplus to a budget deficit situation because of payouts for crops and wildfire and Alberta, a billion dollars off its surplus for similar regions. So these are impoverishing us as well as destabilizing our governments. Jordan: You’ve mentioned it a couple times and it’s a term that maybe not everybody understands or certainly doesn’t understand its relationship to the situation we’re in now. What is snowpack? Why is it so important to what we’re discussing here? John Pomeroy: Well, the seasonal snowpack in Canada provides about three quarters of our stream flow. When that melts and soaks into the ground, it comes out for many, many months in the spring and summer and keeps our rivers flowing, replenishes our lakes and wetlands and our groundwater and the snow packs and snowfall have been declining in many parts of Canada and the southern parts. They’ve been increasing in northern parts of Canada, but there’s a very low population there and those rivers flow north, so that’s not helping us where we need the water. And this has created challenges for prairie agriculture. It created the challenges for the town of McBride. The glaciers retreated there because of reduced snowpack in the mountains and then the reduced snowpack itself reduced stream flows so that McBride started running out of water. There’s other communities in this situation, Cumberland House indigenous community in the Saskatchewan River, Delta downstream of the Rockies has had such low water levels this year they’ve been digging a well to get through the winter and that’s been settled since the 1770s, that community and they’ve never had this problem before. So many other BC communities have been short of water and have had to impose severe drought restrictions to get through the summer. And this is because of low snow backs, early snow melt, lack of snow. So when we don’t have that snow, which is very reliable, snow melts in the spring, we can monitor it and measure it over the winter and we know we’re going to get in the summer when we don’t have that. We’re dependent upon the rainfall, which tends to be spotty, pretty variable in terms of where it falls. Often it comes too much too quickly and causes a flood and it’s very, very hard to predict. So that’s a very different situation for Canada and given that most of our economy is water dependent and therefore snowfall dependent, it puts our whole economic prosperity as well as our natural ecosystems at risk. Jordan: I want to get into what this means in terms of what Canadians will actually experience in 2024, and obviously there are a few ways in which this will manifest. Let’s start first of all because you’ve spoken about how important our agriculture supply from the prairies is. What do we know now about the current situation and what the summer and harvest will look like? John Pomeroy: Vast Foss, the prairies are in extreme drought and almost all the prairies are abnormally dry to moderate drought or worse, and that’s a situation entry in the winter. What’s followed though is the winter snowpack has not developed in any normal way. Saskatoon, for instance, received only rainfall in December. For the first time in its history, Regina had no precipitation at all. And so the prairies were snow free. Well into January, they have a little bit of snow now it translates to about eight millimeters of water equivalent, which would evaporate in one good day of crop growth in the summer. So it’s insignificant. That puts the prairies at tremendous risk of drought in the spring, particularly with an El Nino, which generally brings warmer weather to Western Canada and sometimes drier weather. And so there’s still time for some storms to come through there and maybe we’ll get a rainy summer, but it doesn’t look like that. And certainly environment Canada’s medium term and longer term forecasts are suggesting warmer than normal conditions over that region and often drier than normal conditions. So that’s one to pay attention to because soil moisture reserves are exhausted in the region. The reservoirs are at record low levels, and so the areas which irrigate, which is small but economically important, may undergo restrictions next year for the first time in the history of irrigation in Western Canada. Jordan: I think I know the answer to the next aspect I will ask about, but I’d like you to kind of explain what we might see and how problems might compound themselves year over year. But assuming no miraculous storms come through, what can we expect these drought conditions to do for wildfires in 24 compared to last year, which was already unprecedented? John Pomeroy: Yes. Last year the wildfire season started with a low snowpack that melted early and we have snow packs building up in the boreal forests throughout Canada that are lower than they were last year at this time. And so with the warm forecast, which would cause early snow melt, we could start off with potentially a worse fire season than we had last year. Also, there are many fires still burning in the north, they’re burning under the snow and they’re waiting for that snow to melt and the heat to come back to flare up again. So we know they’re there. The smoke is evident in many places and they’re just waiting to flare up and for this heat to return and it looks highly likely that it will. Jordan: I ask this question a lot when it comes to climate related unprecedented times, and I know that El Nino is out there now at least in part impacting this, but in general, are these kind of winters leading to these kind of conditions going to become our new normal? And if so, you mentioned there are still wildfires burning from last year. How does it compound year over year? John Pomeroy: Yes. One thing important to realize is this drought started before El Yeo started. We were in a la yya phase at the time, which should have been wetter and cooler, and then we had unprecedented dry conditions and heat instead. So that’s showing that the systems have decoupled from El Yya la Yya to some degree. We’re seeing the overriding influence of climate warming on the signals and extremely warm sea temperatures influencing the coasts and precipitation patterns across the country. So we’re in a new game here and it’s looking much more variable than the climate that we are used to in Canada and that we have developed our agriculture and our water management for. And it also looks that we can have severe droughts and heat waves even without an El Nino that would probably just be exacerbated by those when they come. So there’s lots to worry about in 2024, many scientists have predicted it could be even hotter than 2023 and become the hottest year in human recent history. Jordan: I feel like that’s just a given now from one year to the next. John Pomeroy: Yeah, 2022 was the hottest year, and then 2023 and then 2024. So if you’re betting it’s a good bet that this carries on. And of course our greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase. If you look at the slope of the increase in CO three, the atmosphere, it’s not slowing down at all despite all the talk and the agreements. So there’s no reason for this to slow down whatsoever. And there’s a risk that it can be accelerating Jordan: Aside, obviously from taking the scale of the climate emergency seriously globally and nationally, more practically, what could we be doing given what we already know to prepare for another incredibly dry year in these affected areas? John Pomeroy: Yes, there’s lots we can do. Canadians have been very active water managers. We have lots of reservoirs and dams around the country, particularly farmers are incredibly innovative and adaptive in how they cope with things. So we need to store water now where we can, and that means taking a hit on hydroelectricity generation, but we need to store that water to supplement stream flow in the spring and summer should our snow packs remain low, which looks likely at this point. Farmers need to adopt careful management practices, choosing crops that use less water, and they generally have a selection. And there’s a few in there that are more drought tolerant, and that means picking those irrigators have to prepare for the eventuality that they may not get the full irrigation allotment that they would need. And so again, that means making sure they’re irrigating high value crops that are worth it and not the lower value. And the livestock producers are already calling their herds and reducing their herds because of lack of grazing in feed, and unfortunately they probably need to continue to do that to remain viable. And then finally, our interprovincial agreements are very modest agreements, very light agreements, and I’m not certain that they will be up for the water management challenges we will have in 2024, and I think they need to be revisited. We have a brand new Canada Water Agency at the federal level, and we needed to become active to help the provinces to manage this water and to assure equitable sharing of water for various uses in and between provinces, deal with the American border, which most of Canadian water is transboundary with the US as you mentioned. That’s one that needs to be looked at very carefully. And also to ensure that our first nations and indigenous communities are getting their fair share of water. They have fared very poorly in allocations and in water quality, and that needs to be improved so we can do much better, and I think we have the knowledge and the capacity there, but we need things like a national flood and drought forecasting system. We don’t have one, we’re the only G seven country. Without that, these things need to be implemented, made fully public to allow people to prepare and plan for the challenges that we have. Ahead Jordan: Of all that stuff that you just listed, what percentage of it would you estimate is actively being tackled? John Pomeroy: The Canada Water Agency bill is before Parliament, and the agency has been stood up as part of Environment Canada, so that’s great. There’s another bill before Parliament to establish a national drought and flood forecasting service at the federal level, cooperatively with the provinces. It’s a private member’s bill, but I hope something like that passes. The provinces such as Alberta have taken this very, very seriously and have an all hands on deck approach to ensuring that water is managed appropriately and British Columbia is also preparing its drought plans for the next year. So I think it is being taken seriously, but we still have a ways to go. The National Wildfire Fighting Service has not been created yet, and we could have a worse wildfire year coming up than we had last year and last year just exhausted our resources. We relied on help with wildfire fighters from around the world. We can’t deal with that every year. We can’t call in the military every time we have a drought or a wildfire or flood. We have to be able to manage these in a more prepared way and have the capacity there provincially and federally and locally to deal with these extreme disasters because we’re going to be seeing them on a regular basis. Jordan: John, thank you so much for this. I wish it was better news, but I’m glad to be able to understand the scope of what’s going on right now. Thanks again. John Pomeroy: Thank you.

Katherine Finn Project Manager Adam Larocque Data Management adam.larocque@usask.ca Stephen O'Hearn Data Helper sdo124@usask.ca

Legacy

Legacy

Legacy Site (slated for decommission in June 2021) www.usask.ca/dri Restoration Site (under active development) https://gwfnet.net/sites/dri/ I believe the drought metadata search form no longer operates and I will continue to look into this. Regards, Stephen

Global Water Futures Observatories (GWFO) is a follow-on program from Global Water Futures (GWF), the largest and most published university-led freshwater research program in the world with 213 faculty investigators, 531 end-users, 1,826 new researchers, and a network of 23 Canadian universities working on 65 projects and core teams. GWF (and now GWFO) has established and/or operates 64 water observation sites, 15 deployable measurement systems, and 18 state-of-the-art university-based environmental and aquatic analysis facilities. These facilities monitor many things ranging from algae activity in freshwater lakes that are the drinking water source for millions of people, to snowpacks and glaciers in the high Canadian Rockies that feed the rivers and streams of western North America and which can contribute to catastrophic flooding, to the health of the Great Lakes, and to contaminants in groundwater used as drinking water sources for Indigenous communities. GWFO provides data to provide early warning and test beds for the prediction of flood, drought, and water quality issues, and operates across seven provinces and territories, including the Great Lakes Basin. University of Saskatchewan leads the nine-university collaboration that operates the network to monitor and help support the development of solutions for the impending water crisis that Canadians face due to climate change, inadequate water management, the proliferation of toxic contaminants, and environmental degradation.

Legacy (2021 Still Funded)

Official site INARCH Phase II (2021-2026): https://inarch.usask.ca Legacy (restored) site INARCH Phase I (2015–2020): https://gwfnet.net/sites/inarch

Legacy

Legacy

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-adaption-governance.php

Develops improved predictive tools, policy instruments and governance strategies for the sustainable management of water resources in the agricultural regions of Canada. Users of Agricultural Water Futures are interested in determining how Canadian agriculture will change in future in response to climate stressors and socio-economic drivers, and are tasked with maintaining water and food security, the Canadian economy, and environmental stewardship. In collaboration with our partners, our seven-year, pan-Canadian AWF goal is to determine how Canadian agriculture and food production systems can best respond to risk and uncertainty associated with current and future climatic and socio-economic stressors. The Agricultural Water Futures project will identify and assess appropriate agricultural activities, Beneficial Management Practices (BMP) and governance arrangements related to water quantity and quality that will ensure sustainable food supplies, healthy ecosystems and an economically strong agricultural community.

Protozoan cysts (Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts) cause serious human health risks not only in urbanized areas but also in the cold and remote regions. Since these protozoan cysts are hardly inactivated in conventional drinking water treatment, reliable and rapid detection of the pathogenic cysts is urgently demanded, especially for communities without advance disinfection facilities, such as ozonation. This project will develop a novel sensor system where water samples are examined under optical/fluorescent microscopes and the pathogenic cysts on the microscopic images are detected by artificial intelligence (AI). Detailed research objectives and tasks are: (1) to build a sufficient database of microscopic image for machine learning training of AI; (2) to develop a filtration/resuspension system that selectively collects Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts from other particles in natural water (natural organic matter particles, non-pathogenic microorganisms); and (3) to apply fluorescent-labeled antibodies and genomic fragment amplification to enhance the sensor accuracy and reliability. The new sensor system will be transformative as it will help improve water safety and control waterborne human diseases.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-ai-cysts.php

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p3-bwf.php https://twitter.com/bwf_borealwater http://ecohydrology.mcmaster.ca/people.html --> Mike Waddington

Project Overview: Canada’s boreal biome, which represents both a critically important global freshwater resource and carbon reserve, is undergoing extraordinary transformative change that is having profound impacts on boreal ecosystem function, source water protection, and wildfire behaviour and management. Natural resources development is expanding the density of wildland-society interfaces (WSI) at the same time as boreal wildfire intensification is placing ever increasing threats and risks on human health and safety, water quality, and global climate regulation. The 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire was Canada's largest natural disaster (economic damage of $8.9B) and represented a turning point for the need to diagnose hydrological thresholds and predict smouldering fire behaviour. Moreover, our recent Boreal Water Futures (BWF) risk assessment, co-developed with BWF stakeholders, highlighted the need to develop nature-based land management solutions (NBS) (e.g. wetland restoration, FireSmart) to create a more resilient boreal WSI and to enhance boreal water resources, carbon and wildfire management. To achieve this management goal previous, BWF research (https://www.borealwaterfutures.ca, https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p3-bwf.php, and https://gwfnet.net/Metadata/Record/T-2021-11-18-S1g229ntXdkaecS3PtujEqbA) highlighted the need to incorporate hydrological thresholds and pair the maintenance of ecohydrological services with wildfire management. Critical to this research is the modelling of cold regions hydrological processes in black spruce wetlands with thick organic soils. Black spruce (above-ground) and organic soil (below-ground) fuel loads, and fuel availability (moisture contents) have high spatio-temporal variability and as such there is a need to characterize and hydrologically model this complexity in order to evaluate how various NBS approaches alter WSI resilience to wildfire. This project brings together a team of internationally renowned ecohydrology, wetlands and wildfire scientists and several NGO and government collaborators to model boreal ecosystem hydrological processes for wildfire and carbon management. Our approach parameterizes an ecohydrological model using remotely sensed data and couples this with both a carbon flux model and fire behaviour model to determine the optimal vegetation composition and ecohydrological characteristics to maximize carbon storage and minimize wildfire risk under both contemporary and future climate change scenarios.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-bwf-wildfire.php

https://www.ohneganos.com https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p3-co-create-indg.php

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-colab-modelling.php

Provides new information on drought and precipitation extremes in a changing climate and environment for risk management and disaster warning. This project will provide new insights into the future occurrence of precipitation-related extremes including drought, intense precipitation events, and hazardous winter precipitation. Such extremes impact many sectors across Canada including -agriculture (such as through effects on food production and crop damage), -electrical utilities (such as through hydro power generation and transmission impacts), -engineering design (such as through improved estimation of return levels for extreme precipitation), -health (such as through impacts on water quality and water-borne diseases), and -insurance (with a backdrop of recent record-breaking payouts such as the Calgary flooding and the Fort McMurray wildfire).

Project Manager

This project creates a crowdsourcing data platform to support contributions from GWF user communities while also serving users needs in application development. The platforms will allow user communities to share geo-located and time-stamped photographs, which complement traditional forms of data acquisition.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-crowdsourcing.php

Global Water Futures promotes a culture of data stewardship as the data products generated by its many projects will become one of its most important legacies. This high regard for data is key to the success of the program as science is a data-driven endeavor, and the quality and availability of data directly affects the quality of the program. The vast investment of time and resources in the collection of environmental data warrants that significant effort be expended on its preservation, organization, and capacity to be found. The GWF Data Policy (https://gwf.usask.ca/documents/GWF_Data_Policy_March-4-2019-Final.pdf) guides our data management practices and encourages researchers to meet GWF's commitment to make data Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable.

This project attempts to leverage stable water isotope (SWI) data for the development of a methodology and monitoring network to aid in our understanding hydrological processes in large river basins. SWIs (δ18O, δ2H) have proven to be useful diagnostic variables for hydrological modelling, with some uncertainty as to the degree of usefulness in parameter constraint estimation. There is a need to quantify the effectiveness of isotope data from large scale monitoring networks, applied in conjunction with observed streamflow data, to enhance hydrologic model calibration and optimization. The benefit, should such soft data methods prove successful, would be enhanced knowledge of model parameter uncertainty, and more realistic parameterization of hydrologic models, and such methods could prove especially value in modelling the cold, vast and complex pan-Canadian watersheds.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-model-uncertainty.php

The primary goal of this project is to compare and validate the ability of two existing ice models to simulate the evolution of ice cover on large lakes at large and small scales. See Lake Futures Project

FIShNET collaborates with the Northern Water Futures (NWF) project. In partnership with Indigenous communities in other northern regions in Canada, the FIShNET team evaluates: 1) health concerns and risk perceptions among community members; 2) environmental determinants of mercury and nutrients in wild-harvested fish; 3) balance between contaminant risks and nutrient benefits in traditional foods; 4) links between contaminant levels in the environment, human behavior patterns, and human exposure; and 5) access to traditional food and the impact on food security. FIShNET also generates complementary information for Fort Albany First Nation and Mushkegowuk Council (www.mushkegowuk.com).

Project Lead

Project Lead

Helen Baulch Project Lead Global Institute for Water Security ^and ^School of Environment and Sustainability ^University of Saskatchewan Jason Venkiteswaran Project Lead Department of Geography and Environmental Studies^Wilfrid Laurier University

https://uwaterloo.ca/duguay-research-group/current-projects/forecasting-tools-and-mitigation-options-diverse-bloom See also: https://gwf.usask.ca/formbloom/about/researchers.php#ProjectLeads https://mobile.twitter.com/formbloom Buffalo Pound Lake Buoys https://wqdatalive.com/public/113

This project develops big data analytic tools that support citizens and scientists in two-way knowledge exchanges. GWC Objectives: 1. Build a national inventory of citizen science projects for water resources. 2. Develop tools to reduce barriers to the use of citizen science data by environmental researchers. 3. Develop approaches to maximize the use of GWF information products by vulnerable communities and citizens. 4. Expand participation and improve knowledge of documenting environmental change in Canada's cold regions.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-geogenic-contamination.php

Water security is threatened by climate change and increased water demands in many areas. In the Canadian Prairies and other areas of western North America, changes in the timing and magnitude of streamflow are altering water availability. Increased use of groundwater resources could help in addressing this problem but the extent to which these resources could be sustainably developed is unclear. Some regions currently relying upon groundwater have extensive groundwater and streamflow depletion as a result of unsustainable management practices. These depletions can occur slowly, over months, years, and millennia, making them difficult to detect and predict. This project will improve our understanding of how typical hydrogeological settings in the Canadian Prairies will respond to both groundwater pumping and climate change through examination of groundwater age distributions, hydrograph analyses and numerical modeling. The Canadian Prairies have not experienced widespread depletion to date, so we will examine other areas of western North America experiencing groundwater depletion to provide additional insights into what the future of groundwater resources in the Canadian Prairies could look like. This project will provide key insights into monitoring and analysis methods, possible responses, and future data requirements to facilitate groundwater management in Canada and other similar regions.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-groundwater-prairies.php

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-frozen-soils.php

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-hydrology-ecology-feedbacks.php

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-wetland-evap.php

see Project Participants table below

Akaitcho Territory Government (ATG) represents five Dene communities – Deninu K’ue First Nation, Lutsel K’e Dene First Nation, Smith’s Landing First Nation, and Yellowknives Dene First Nation (Dettah and Ndilo): http://akaitcho.ca/ Global Water Futures: https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/i1-schusterwallace.php#Investigators

Project Manager

https://uwaterloo.ca/lake-futures https://uwaterloo.ca/duguay-research-group/current-projects/lake-futures-enhancing-adaptive-capacity-and-resilience

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-stressors.php

This project involves the development of a digital platform, called the Stream Adaptive Management Environment or 'SAME', to improve the science, communications, and outcomes surrounding decision making in surface water channel networks. Its purpose is to combine monitoring and modelling efforts with a data management platform created by the Computer Systems Group at UW that supports environmental decision making (iEnvironment). Such research is aligned with Pillar 2 of the Global Water Futures (GWF) initiative -- Developing Big Data and Decision Support Systems. This project builds on previous efforts by incorporating two large databases with field monitoring and surface water modelling results; reusing existing monitoring, modelling, the user interface, and access control tools; maintaining relations with active partners that include municipalities and conservation authorities across Ontario; extending analysis tools developed as part of an NSERC funded Strategic Project Grant; and leveraging funding for platform development. Secured funding through CANARIE, a non-profit Canadian corporation with a mandate to advance Canada’s knowledge and innovation infrastructure, will support the development of iEnvironment. Modules will be developed that will allow research groups in river hydraulics and aquatic ecology to connect their work with this system to build an adaptive management platform in SAME. The new work will also ingest a range of data streams and allow users to access the data and analysis in the form of maps, tables, and tailored report cards. Specifically supported decisions in the near term will include the evaluation of alternative development scenarios, best management practices, stream restoration, and assessment of risk due to predictive uncertainty and climate change. Case studies include Wilket, Morningside and Ganatsekaigon Creeks in Toronto and Blair Creek in Kitchener. The vision of this project is that other groups connected to the Global Water Futures Initiative will develop modules and build the capacity of the platform to provide a trans-disciplinary decision support system for other questions related to cumulative effects, risk, and the management of surface water networks.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-stream-network-modelling.php

In countries around the world, water resources are under pressure from numerous chronic and acute sources. Problems such as overuse and contamination persist despite decades of sustained attention from governments, researchers, international organizations and civil society. Improving governance is necessary, but the crucial role of external social, economic and political drivers and forces that operate beyond national borders yet impact governance within countries must be accounted for more effectively. Canada’s water resources and governance systems are subject to these drivers and forces. Some originate from within the larger water sector, but others are linked to decisions and actions in sectors operating at the national, continental and global levels that are not normally considered part of the water sector (e.g., energy policy makers, the banking and investment communities). Hence, in the same way that climate scientists need to understand how climate and water resources in Canada are influenced by continental and global climate drivers, those interested in strengthening Canada’s ability to respond to water challenges through improving governance need to better recognize and account for the crucial role played by external social, political and economic drivers and forces operating beyond Canada’s borders. The purpose of this project is to identify and assess social, economic and political trends internal and external to the water sector that have, or may have, implications for water governance in Canada, and to assess ways of adapting water governance in Canada to better account for those drivers. A distinctive feature of our proposed project is knowledge co-production with key stakeholders and collaborators.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-water-governance.php

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/i2-mitchell.php

Project Manager

Sean Carey PI Masaki Hayashi PI Brian Menounos PI Sarah Irvine Project Manager Stephen Déry Researcher Jeffrey McKenzie Researcher Richard Petrone Researcher John Pomeroy Researcher Rebecca Rooney Researcher Ronald Stewart Researcher Julie Thériault Researcher Cherie Westbrook Researcher Francis Zwiers Researcher

http://www.mountainwaterfutures.ca https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p3-mwf.php

Rapid urban growth in the past decades has made cities major contributors to aquatic ecosystems' health degradation due to the disproportionate location of cities along water bodies. Increased imperviousness combined with more severe weather events are resulting in increasingly flashy and unpredictable urban pollution pulses to receiving waters. The development of adaptive urban water management and planning strategies that minimize negative downstream impacts requires an integrated, system-based understanding of the responses of pollutant export from urban areas to changing climate and urbanization pressures. This project assembles a toolbox for assessing the vulnerability and exposure of the water quality of large water bodies to urbanization and climate change. As the testbed for this integrated approach, the researchers will focus on eutrophication risks in the littoral zone of the western basin of Lake Ontario (WLO) driven by urban phosphorus (P) inputs from Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe, which includes the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The project will deliver a science-based roadmap for prioritizing measures to protect water quality and ecosystem health from urban pollution. It will also advance the representation of urban processes in water quality assessment and prediction.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-eutrophication.php

This project will advance emerging and transformative technologies in biology and bioinformatics, such as environmental DNA (eDNA) and next generation sequencing (NGS), that enable the previously challenging study of aquatic life and their habitats. The DNA analysis of aquatic systems can be used to detect and identify the full range of biological diversity, including presence of rare and endangered species, in near real time, while reducing costs and the need for taxonomic expertise. These transformative technologies have potential to provide more rapid, comprehensive and objective assessments of ecosystem status of aquatic environments exposed to stressors in Canada.

Project Manager

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-groundwater-vulnerability.php

This project uses ultrahigh-relolution Mass Spectrometry to monitor water and to predict future trends in aquatic ecosystem structure and function. To wit: 'Omics' approaches such as proteomics, lipidomics and metabolomics along with chemical fingerprinting technologies can be used as powerful tools to monitor the current status and to predict future trends in ecosystem structure and function. As an example, organisms living in Canada’s north and at high altitudes, must annually adjust their metabolisms and the lipid components in their cellular membranes to adapt to changing temperatures. Any alterations in the magnitudes or timing of changes in temperature or sources of food could have severe, even catastrophic, negative effects on individual organisms, and ultimately on whole ecosystems and the services they provide to humans. Also, nutrient cycling that controls eutrophication and associated harmful algal blooms (HABs) is controlled, in part, by organic forms of phosphorus and nitrogen and dissolved organic matter that can be better characterized by UHR-MS. Natural constituents of surface waters, such as humic and fulvic acids, proteins and amino acids are important for regulating geochemical processes, but are complex and to date have not been well characterized. Also, toxic products of HABs are complex and have been difficult to characterize, but the newly established UHR-MS systems will allow for much better characterization of these important compounds. The project develops and validates methods that take full advantage of the new state-of-the-art equipment, while also providing support and training for other on-going GWF projects and personnel. The longer-term goal is to work with researchers to apply these techniques to assess aquatic resources in support of end-user needs and priorities of the GWF platform.

to develop sustainable water management practices through applied holistic assessments of environmental and human wellness. Communities include - the Six Nations of the Grand River, ON, and - Lubicon Cree Nation of Little Buffalo, AB Indigenous populations in Canada are particularly vulnerable to climate change and water security issues. First Nations communities’ water supplies are in crisis over lack of access to water quality and quantity, water technology (real time data and clear standards), and skilled management systems. Inadequate infrastructure increases the health burden in these communities. Water crisis is widely experienced in Indigenous communities due to the “…ongoing struggle to have Indigenous voices heard in the decision-making processes that affect their lives, lands, and waters” (McGregor, 2012). Research, capacity building and support are needed for a range of water-related topics of governance, health and capacity development, including development of Indigenous sustainability. Following extensive engagement and discussions, our partner communities in Ontario and Alberta have identified three primary areas of interest: (1) bridging traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and western science (WS) in the area of accredited water management training and bilingual texts/resources to build communities’ capacity to manage future environmental challenges [training], (2) building youth mental health resilience related to water security [wellness], and (3) training youth/assisting community in water governance, rights, responses inclusive of Indigenous laws [governance]. Our project is set to address these needs, via a co-creation team consisting of leading experts in TEK and WS in all of the three components. The three teams (TEK research/training, wellness, and governance) focus on the issues of addressing stewardship over time; crafting bilingual, relevant resources; and fostering resilience. The overarching aim of this project is to develop an enduring legacy of Indigenous knowledge/traditional ecological knowledge harmonization with western science through co-creation of sustainable water management pathways for community to continue applied holistic assessments of environmental and human wellness. The end users of this project will include primarily Six Nations community, youth, high school, college and university teachers, and researchers while maintaining links to Lubicon Cree and Western stakeholders. The researchers from community, secondary immersion school and undergraduate students will be formally accredited by partners from McMaster, Mohawk College; and potentially more educational institutions expressed enthusiasm and willingness to create an integrated program of delivery of mixed methods. There have been preliminary agreements to accredit existing community researchers and develop a pathway for secondary students to pursue post-secondary environmental and water management programs integrating experiential learning.

http://www.sixnations.ca http://www.lubiconlakeband.ca/about https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/i5-martinHill.php Related Websites: https://www.ohneganos.com https://indigenous.mcmaster.ca/news/new-indigenous-student-led-youtube-series-ohneganos-lets-talk-water Video https://youtu.be/xdVrayhAtRI New Indigenous Student-led Youtube Series: Ohneganos Let's Talk Water: https://indigenous.mcmaster.ca/news/new-indigenous-student-led-youtube-series-ohneganos-lets-talk-water/@@images/image

Recent concerns have arisen around deeper groundwater systems due to issues related to unconventional oil and gas development and subsurface waste disposal -- areas which both suffer from data scarcity. The first phase of this project conducted a review of the available data for western Canada to improve our understanding of hydrogeological connectivity. We have selected a number of case studies to represent typical hydrogeological environments of concern and have produced a series of maps and databases to improve our understanding of the hydrogeological settings. Water chemistry has been compiled for various hydrogeological units to improve our ability to fingerprint and differentiate groundwaters. This data has been supplemented by sampling and analysis of water from provincial groundwater monitoring networks and other sampling opportunities from industry. Numerical models have been used to interpret existing physical and chemical hydrogeological data for a series of case studies and has improved our conceptual understanding of these systems. These models constrain the likelihood of significant connectivity between aquifers containing potable and poor quality groundwaters. The methods and findings from these studies have been compared to other regions, both within Canada and internationally, to generalize the findings of this study. The second phase focuses on developing additional case studies within western Canada to test and improve the findings of the first phase. We also seek to develop similar databases for eastern Canada, making use of provincial groundwater monitoring efforts and NRCan's BASIN oil and gas database for eastern Canada.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-old-meets-new.php

This project explores the role of policy and social institutions in the effective governance of agricultural drainage during times of rapid change. Drainage generates tens of millions of dollars through agricultural development for landowners, and has been credited with making huge tracts of lands, including much of the prairies, arable. Drainage can be an important climate change adaptation strategy. Yet, drainage can negatively affect drought risk and resilience, water quality, and biodiversity. Likewise, while a landowner may be using drainage to mitigate their own flooding issues, they may be exacerbating flood risk of their downstream neighbors. While drainage is regulated, these regulations are not always enforced, leading to conflicts in many region. Indeed, debate and conflict over drainage has been ongoing in North America for more than a century (Blann et al., 2009). Although a good deal is known about drainage from a hydrological and climatic perspective, less is known about the human dimensions of the problem, particularly with respect to the formal and informal social institutions that will be needed to manage these complex systems sustainably under climate change. We are interested here in whether polycentric governance, where groups coordinate at a local level with constraints at higher levels of authority, can yield more resilient communities, and help foster collaboration rather than conflict over drainage challenges. In theory, polycentric governance institutions are thought to be essential for achieving outcomes that are both equitable and environmentally sustainable from the perspective of multiple stakeholders (Deitz et al., 2003). To explore this proposition in the context of drainage, we will create social-ecological models of existing drainage governance, based on the variables and schematic set out in the Social-ecological Systems (SES) Framework (Ostrom, 2009; Ostrom and Cox, 2010). These models will link to hydro-climate models, such that social scenarios can be run based on scenarios of climatic and hydrological change to forecast the impacts of possible societal responses. We will also perform a systematic, comparative case-study of drainage governance in three watersheds to gain a better understanding of how people develop institutions to govern water, and how conflict or collaboration emerges in these processes. Comparative case-study research of drainage policies and institutions issues will focus on Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Ontario. Canada’s provinces have different drainage management approaches and histories, and Saskatchewan has recently developed new requirements for drainage management that require new kinds of approval and stakeholder coordination, including for existing projects. This presents a key opportunity for research during an active period of institutional development and policy formation. The products of this work will inform policy to manage drainage, reduce flood risk stemming from drainage problems, add new case studies to the field of institutional analysis, bring social scientists into GWF’s modeling efforts, and set the stage for subsequent work on nutrients. The study will identify points of intervention for addressing drainage conflict, and guidance for developing more robust and resilient water management institutions across Canada. Additionally, this work will provide theoretical advances regarding how to effectively manage other contentious, multi-scale water security issues in addition to drainage, such as management of agricultural nutrients.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-prairie-governance.php

Prairie Water is a research project based at the Global Institute for Water Security at the University of Saskatchewan and funded under the Global Water Futures program. The project prioritizes scientific research on water to address pressing concerns of water security and management in the Canadian Prairies. Our objectives are informed by our partners' questions, and our goal is to direct research to help inform water-related management and decision-making with the vision to enhance the resilience of Prairie communities in a changing world.

Paradigm Shift in Downscaling Climate Model Projections

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-cmip6.php

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-lake-ice.php

Abandoned mines abound in the NWT with dates of operation varying from 1930s to 2000s and lifespans from less than 1 year to 50 years. Most are located in the boreal forest on the Canadian Shield in the zone of discontinuous permafrost. The legacy of metal pollution from mining extends beyond the immediate mining sites and across the NWT via emissions to the atmosphere and subsequent deposition. However, its extent is poorly known. The fate and toxicity of these metals from mining activities depends strongly on their transport via dissolved organic matter (DOM). DOM is a complex array of molecules that play an influential role in dictating surface water quality. It is predicted that climate warming, especially in subarctic regions where substantial organic matter has accumulated over time, will accelerate both rates of organic matter decomposition and consequently the mass and chemistry of DOM entering freshwater systems during the next few decades. These changes have important implications for surface water quality with respect to long-term ecosystem health and human consumption of drinking water. Metals at levels comparable to guidelines for aquatic ecosystem health and drinking water consumption can result from enhanced metal mobility due to mining activities. Critically important to metal mobility is the production of elevated and potentially chemically altered DOM with wetlands, soils, streams, and lakes that have been a repository for elevated metal concentrations via atmospheric or direct deposition. Increased mobility of metals from anthropogenic sources, as well as those that are naturally occurring, in catchments and lakes in NWT as a consequence of ongoing climate warming has the potential to significantly expand the anthropogenic impacts of mining. To Wit: This project will trace the transport and behaviour of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and metals through terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in headwater catchments along a 200 km airshed transect between Giant Mine and Whati, an area of concentrated mining activity. Six Work Plans include: 1) terrestrial stores of historical metal deposition and transport to aquatic ecosystems, 2) DOM quantity and quality, metal binding, and toxicology, 3) modelling of DOM quantity and quality in cold regions, 4) metal depositional history, pathways, and processes in lake sediments, 5) paleo-ecotoxicology and ecosystem structure, and 6) climate change effects including permafrost thaw. Findings will inform improved decision-making by multiple stakeholders in the NWT, including Indigenous peoples, about both legacy of mining activities and implications of new mining developments on water quality in a changing environment.

https://specialprojects.wlu.ca/samms https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-samms.php

Understanding of the physical processes affecting short‐duration (less than 24 hours) extreme precipitation and their possible changes in the warming world is important to the accurate projection of precipitation. However, most global and regional climate models do not directly simulate the processes that produce extreme precipitation due to their coarse resolutions and this hinders the proper interpretation of the precipitation projections produced by these models. Such shortcomings can be addressed by making extensive use of a convection‐permitting modeling tool running in a pseudo‐global warming mode, and comparing it with existing simulations by global and regional climate models. This project addresses the following four questions: i) Does temperature scaling work at convective‐permitting resolutions for short‐duration local precipitation extremes? ii) How will the characteristics of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) such as the precipitation intensity, size, and life‐span of storms change in the future? iii) What are the underlying physical processes that result in changes in MCSs and storm properties? iv) How do extreme precipitation features scale across resolution from GCMs to RCMs to convective permitting WRF? This project aims to increase our understanding of the physical soundness of future precipitation projections by climate models, thereby providing a scientific foundation for the proper use of model projections that many prediction models used by GWF depend on.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-extreme-precipitation.php

Southern Forests Water Futures Project strives to improve our understanding of biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles in both conifer and deciduous forests and to develop management strategies that can enhance sustainable development of forest water resources and improve forest resilience to negative impacts of climate change. This project will: -provide knowledge, tools and techniques to better manage forest ecosystems and water resources -help in developing next-generation ecosystem and hydrologic models to be used in Canadian regional and global climate models to predict future climate and hydrologic regimes, and -formulate climate change mitigation and adaptation plans to secure water resources.

This project studies the significance of spatial and temporal groundwater dynamics on watershed hydrology through high-resolution simulations with a fully-integrated hydrologic model. Because of the availability of high-quality data, datasets from the well-instrumented Alder Creek Watershed (ACW) (~79 km2) within the Grand River Basin in Ontario will be utilized to parameterize, calibrate, and validate the model.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-groundwater-models.php

Julie Thériault PI Université du Québec à Montréal Stephen Déry Team Lead University of Northern British Columbia John Pomeroy Team Lead University of Saskatchewan Ronald Stewart Team Lead University of Manitoba Juris Almonte Project Manager Université du Québec à Montréal and University of Northern British Columbia

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-wq-monitoring.php

https://gwf-sajess.weebly.com https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-sajess.php See also related SPADE https://gwf-spade.weebly.com project

This project is developing a new era of Big Data for water, using terrestrial sensor networks, new sub-orbital aircraft and drone instrument platforms, and near- and far-orbit satellites, linked to rapid information dissemination tools for users and the public. While new drone technology will provide unprecedented spatial data, the project will also deploy and commercialize systems for acoustic sounding of snow, develop and deploy ultrasonic sensors for multiple environmental measurements (snow depth, stream level, stream velocity, air temperature, humidity, blowing snow), and develop and deploy a portable waveguide spectrometer for the identification of water pollutants, to provide accurate and real-time data for Canada's water environment.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-sk-wellwater.php

To hold Water Knowledge Camps to build strong partnerships through dialog and understanding among researchers and communities to build a comprehensive environmental monitoring program. Communities: The Dene and Métis people of the Sahtú region, NWT Communities throughout the Sahtú have expressed concerns about the cumulative impacts of development and climate change on the quality and quantity of the waters in the region and consequent risks to human and ecosystem health. Some of these concerns are related to mining and other industrial developments in the region and beyond, including Port Radium on the eastern shore of Great Bear Lake and oil and gas development in Norman Wells, long-range transport of contaminants, and downstream effects of oil sands development in Alberta. More recently, the impacts of climate change, which include increased frequency of forest fires, changes to hydrological regimes and landscape changes due to permafrost thaw, as well as the potential for development of the Canol shale oil and gas play are adding to these concerns. As a result, many have stopped drinking from local water sources, preferring to purchase drinking water imported from elsewhere, and questions about water quality and ecosystem health are common as livelihoods in the Sahtú are closely linked to their land and waters. Researchers, partners, and community members want to better integrate current and planned research initiatives, identify research and capacity needs, and support new and innovative research to address these concerns in the Sahtú. The proposed Water Knowledge Camps, is a step towards the goals of building stronger partnerships through enhanced dialog and understanding among researchers and communities and will help to build a comprehensive environmental monitoring programs. These camps will involve shared on-the-land experiences with researchers and community members. The design of the camps is two-patterned on the Cross-Cultural Research Camp model for co-production of knowledge established in the Sahtú region, including: interactive experiences in traditional knowledge arising from “way of life” practices on the land; consideration of knowledge and its communication at different scales and from different sources; and science-based research and monitoring questions and methods. Water Knowledge Camps Purposes: 1) Build cross-cultural understanding of water and environmental knowledge, risk perception and healthy water consumption practices; 2) Respect, support and protect traditional knowledge processes; 3) Support regional and regulatory decision-making based on evidence from science and traditional knowledge; 4) Identify opportunities for collaborative research and monitoring, communication, and cross-cultural interpretation of research results; and 5) Build local capacity in the Sahtú to collaborate in, coordinate and lead research through the co-development of a water and environmental monitoring network. Water Knowledge Camps will support strengthened frameworks for risk communication and risk management and strengthen the foundation for co-production of knowledge related to water. Project outcomes would provide crucial support for the community goals of launching Guardian programs, where community members would monitor, observe, and report on changes to their lands and water and inform policy related to this. The Sahtú Nę K’ǝ́dikǝ́ program, the regional initiative, along with smaller locally focused programs, is linked to the broader Indigenous Guardians initiative uniting Indigenous nations, lending national relevance to this proposed collaboration. By focusing on youth, the hope is to encourage and motivate them to become more involved in the monitoring of their lands and waters and to pursue opportunities in science as a way of becoming leaders in their communities and stewards of their lands.

https://www.sahtu.ca/sahtu-communities https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/i6-Baltzer.php#Investigators https://www.srrb.nt.ca/

http://chcn.ca https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/i4-jardine.php

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1-winter-soil.php

Decision-maker demand for the socio-economic value of water has increased significantly over the past years. However, there is a paucity of value estimates in Canada, and it remains a major challenge to estimate the monetary worth of the flow of goods and services provided by freshwater resources for the Canadian economy and society at large. The lack of economic evidence and decision-making tools seriously undermines our ability to efficiently and sustainably manage water resources in Canada. This project aims to develop and test guidelines for the economic valuation of freshwater resources in Canada and operationalize an integrated water quality valuation model. This project will represent the largest coordinated water valuation research program in Canada ever. It will develop, test and apply reliable and robust state-of-the-art valuation methods and techniques for aquatic ecosystem services in different water quality policy contexts across the Canadian landscape. The central objective is to advance our understanding of the socio-economic value of water in Canada by developing best practice guidelines, providing new empirical evidence, and advancing new policy-relevant decision-support tools. We will draw upon the technical expertise of the applicants of this proposal and their international experiences and networks in water resources valuation. Besides new social and policy sciences research, the proposal also includes a strong knowledge mobilization component, where the potential use and usefulness of economic valuation in sustainable water resources management will be addressed, using both Canadian and international examples, to help decision-makers and practitioners assess the benefits and return on investment of improving the quality of Canada’s freshwater resources.

https://gwf.usask.ca/projects-facilities/all-projects/p1ph2-valuing-water.php

In 2016, with initial funding through the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, the Global Water Futures team set out to produce actionable scientific knowledge on how we can best forecast, prepare for, and manage water futures in the face of dramatically increasing risks. As Global Water Futures moves towards synthesizing the results of its research, this briefing book, updated in 2024, provides description of the progress of GWF's more than 50 projects up to 2023. The book includes links to related peer-reviewed publications, dissertations, and conference papers, a table that categorises the projects by theme, and an index.

Second edition of the GWF program briefing book, including updates from the project annual reports which were submitted in 2023.

In this project, Dehcho AAROM and University of Waterloo have been working together for ~ 10 years to investigate why mercury levels in fish vary among lakes in the Dehcho region, and how mercury levels in fish might change in the future in response to ongoing environmental change. In this three-year phase of the project, we sampled several more lakes (Fish Lake, Greasy Lake, Deep Lake) for fish, water, benthic invertebrates, sediment, and zooplankton. Catchments for all lakes in the study were also characterized. We compiled all available data for this project (dating back to 2013) to model mercury levels in Northern Pike from 11 lakes using piecewise structural equation models. Integrating feedback, ideas, and knowledge from Indigenous Guardians who work together with University researchers on the land each summer, we developed a model that explains >80% of the among-lake variation in mercury levels in Northern Pike. The among-lake variation in fish mercury levels is explained by a complex interaction of catchment characteristics, water chemistry, levels of mercury in lower trophic levels, and fish ecology. Levels of mercury in Northern Pike are lower in lakes that are large relative to their catchments, and which are located in less steep catchments that have proportionally less forest cover. Relatively large lakes located in less forested catchments with shallow slopes have clearer water (less dissolved organic carbon) and lower concentrations of mercury in water and sediment. These lakes also have lower levels of mercury in benthic invertebrates, faster-growing fish, and ultimately lower levels of mercury in Northern Pike.

An increase in water demand due to growth in human populations and industry around the globe has led to an increase in riverine flow regulation, impacting the sustainability of downstream ecosystems. The Saskatchewan River Delta (SRD) is the largest inland delta in North America and is located near the Manitoba and Saskatchewan border. Flow regulation infrastructure projects such as the construction of Gardiner, Francois Finley and E.B. Campbell dams along the South Saskatchewan and Saskatchewan rivers have supplied water for irrigation, drinking water, hydroelectricity, flood control, and recreational activities for the province of Saskatchewan. However, this flow regulation has caused negative changes to the flow and sediment regimes for the SRD. A two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic HEC-RAS model was set up and run to verify some of these observations and to run scenarios on how water and sediment balances can be improved. The model domain contains the main channel, floodplains and hinterland areas. Measured meteorological and hydrological data were available to develop and calibrate the model. On-land participant observations and semi-structured interviews were used to help determine future scenarios to consider in the 2D modelling. Through these model scenarios, we will assess the effects of different mitigation measures to improve water availability and sediment transport to the delta. Examples of scenarios include simulating flows required to flood an important tributary that feeds wetlands (the Old Channel) and strategic placement of weirs to raise the depth of water in the SRD’s largest lake (Cumberland Lake). The model’s ability to visualize and animate results may serve as a boundary object allowing crucial conversations about water to occur between the Cumberland House community and upstream water decision-makers.

Solutions to complex health and environmental issues experienced by First Nations communities in Canada require the adoption of collaborative modes of research. The traditional “helicopter” approach to research applied in communities has led to disenchantment on the part of First Nations people and has impeded their willingness to participate in research. University researchers have tended to develop projects without community input and to adopt short term approaches to the entire process, perhaps a reflection of granting and publication cycles and other realities of academia. Researchers often enter communities, collect data without respect for local culture, and then exit, having had little or no community interaction or consideration of how results generated could benefit communities or lead to sustainable solutions. Community-based participatory research (CBPR) has emerged as an alternative to the helicopter approach and is promoted here as a method to research that will meet the objectives of both First Nations and research communities. CBPR is a collaborative approach that equitably involves all partners in the research process. Although the benefits of CBPR have been recognized by segments of the University research community, there exists a need for comprehensive changes in approaches to First Nations centered research, and additional guidance to researchers on how to establish respectful and productive partnerships with First Nations communities beyond a single funded research project. This article provides a brief overview of ethical guidelines developed for researchers planning studies involving Aboriginal people as well as the historical context and principles of CBPR. A framework for building research partnerships with First Nations communities that incorporates and builds upon the guidelines and principles of CBPR is then presented. The framework was based on 10 years’ experience working with First Nations communities in Saskatchewan. The framework for research partnership is composed of five phases. They are categorized as the pre-research, community consultation, community entry, research and research dissemination phases. These phases are cyclical, non-linear and interconnected. Elements of, and opportunities for, exploration, discussion, engagement, consultation, relationship building, partnership development, community involvement, and information sharing are key components of the five phases within the framework. The phases and elements within this proposed framework have been utilized to build and implement sustainable collaborative environmental health research projects with Saskatchewan First Nations communities.

Land use change and agricultural intensification have increased food production but at the cost of polluting surface and groundwater. Best management practices implemented to improve water quality have met with limited success. Such lack of success is increasingly attributed to legacy nutrient stores in the subsurface that may act as sources after reduction of external inputs. However, current water-quality models lack a framework to capture these legacy effects. Here we have modified the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) model to capture the effects of nitrogen (N) legacies on water quality under multiple land-management scenarios. Our new SWAT-LAG model includes (1) a modified carbon-nitrogen cycling module to capture the dynamics of soil N accumulation, and (2) a groundwater travel time distribution module to capture a range of subsurface travel times. Using a 502-km2 Iowa watershed as a case study, we found that between 1950 and 2016, 25% of the total watershed N surplus (N Deposition + Fertilizer + Manure + N Fixation − Crop N uptake) had accumulated within the root zone, 14% had accumulated in groundwater, while 27% was lost as riverine output, and 34% was denitrified. In future scenarios, a 100% reduction in fertilizer application led to a 79% reduction in stream N load, but the SWAT-LAG results suggest that it would take 84 years to achieve this reduction, in contrast to the 2 years predicted in the original SWAT model. The framework proposed here constitutes a first step toward modifying a widely used modeling approach to assess the effects of legacy N on the time required to achieve water-quality goals. Key Points -A novel approach was developed to incorporate nitrate lag times in commonly used water-quality model for watershed management -SWAT-LAG model showed that lag times to achieve Nutrient Task Force's recommended 60% nitrate load reduction can vary from 6 to 80 years -Greater implementation of new management practices lead to shorter lag times to achieving water-quality goals

For nearly a century, we have used nitrogen fertilizers to boost crop yields. However, the environmental effects of fertilizer use have been severe. Drinking water with high nitrate levels threatens human health, and high nitrogen loads in rivers lead to the creation of dead zones in coastal waters that make it impossible for fish or underwater plants to survive. Although we have tried for decades to reduce nitrogen levels in our waterways, the results have been disappointing. Scientists now believe that improvements may be slow to come because there are large amounts of nitrogen that have accumulated in soil and groundwater—legacy nitrogen—that continue to pollute our rivers even after farmers have reduced fertilizer use or improved management. However, policymakers still struggle to predict how long it will take to improve water quality. In our work, we have created a new model, Soil Water Assessment Tool-LAG, that allows us to predict the time lags caused by legacy nitrogen. Using an agricultural watershed in Iowa as a case study, we show that it can take as long as 80 years to see the full effects of new management practices and that these time lags must be considered when setting policy goals.

The Interior of Western Canada, up to and including the Arctic, has experienced rapid change in its climate, hydrology, cryosphere and ecosystems and this is expected to continue. Although there is general consensus that warming will occur in the future, many critical issues remain. In this first of two articles, attention is placed on atmospheric-related issues that range from large scales down to individual precipitation events. Each of these is considered in terms of expected change organized by season and utilizing climate scenario information as well as thermodynamically-driven future climatic forcing simulations. Large scale atmospheric circulations affecting this region are generally projected to become stronger in each season and, coupled with warming temperatures, lead to enhancements of numerous water-related and temperature-related extremes. These include winter snowstorms, freezing rain, drought as well as atmospheric forcing of spring floods although not necessarily summer convection. Collective insights of these atmospheric findings are summarized in a consistent, connected physical framework.

Cowan, D., Alencar, P., Mulholland, D., MacVicar, B., Murphy, S., Courtenay, S., Ashmore, P., Stanfield, L., & McGarry, F. (2018). A Software Platform for Integrated Monitoring and Modelling of Stream Restoration Projects, 6th Conference on Natural Channel Systems, Guelph. Conference Presentation

A Software Platform for Integrated Monitoring and Modelling of Stream Restoration Projects

Many organizations use legacy systems as these systems contain their valuable business rules. However, these legacy systems answer the past requirements but are difficult to maintain and evolve due to old technology use. In this situation, stockholders decide to renovate the system with a minimum amount of cost and risk. Although the renovation process is a more affordable choice over redevelopment, it comes with its risks such as performance loss and failure to obtain quality goals. A proper test process can minimize risks incorporated with the renovation process. This work introduces a testing model tailored for the migration and re-engineering process and employs test automation, which results in early bug detection. Moreover, the automated tests ensure functional sameness between the old and the new system. This process enhances reliability, accuracy, and speed of testing.

Khodabandehloo H, Roy B, Roy CK, Schneider KA, Mondal M, A Testing Approach While Re-engineering Legacy Systems: An Industrial Case Study, in the Proceedings of the 28th IEEE International Conference on Software Analysis, Evolution and Reengineering (SANER), 2021, pp. 600-604.

A Testing Approach While Re-engineering Legacy Systems: An Industrial Case Study

In cold regions, climate change, including warming and changes in snowmelt dynamics, have profound impacts on streamflow patterns, often leading to flooding events. Understanding the projected changes in hydrometeorological factors contributing to streamflow, such as snowmelt runoff and rain-on-snowmelt, is crucial for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. It is also essential to consider uncertainty in streamflow projections and incorporate this uncertainty into flood predictions. This study presents a blueprint for calculating probabilistic future streamflow and flow duration curves in a mountainous cold region. The methodology integrated forcings from an atmospheric model (WRF) with a hydrological model (MESH) at fine spatial (4 km) and temporal (3-hourly) resolutions. To account for uncertainty, an ensemble of 15 CanRCM4 regional climate simulations with varying boundary conditions for the RCP 8.5 scenario was utilized. A novel method was developed to perturb the CanRCM4 simulations’ precipitation using a WRF Pseudo Global Warming run to incorporate uncertainty. This comprehensive approach revealed significant uncertainty in streamflow driven by internal variability. WRF-driven simulations without uncertainty showed a decrease in future streamflow extremes, while the perturbed simulations demonstrated the potential for substantially higher values under climate change. Moreover, the study derived probabilistic flow duration curves from the streamflow projections, aiding in estimating flood frequency for floodplain mapping when driving local hydraulic models. The methodology developed in this work can be extended to other river basins in Canada and elsewhere where gridded downscaled climate model outputs are available.

Keywords: Streamflow projections; Hydrological modelling; Uncertainty; Floodplain mapping; Flow duration curves

Rajulapati, Chandra Rupa; Tesemma, Zelalem; Shook, Kevin; Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Pomeroy, John W (2024) A blueprint for coupling a hydrological model with fine- and coarse-scale atmospheric regional climate change models for probabilistic streamflow projections, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 645, 132080, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132080

A blueprint for coupling a hydrological model with fine- and coarse-scale atmospheric regional climate change models for probabilistic streamflow projections

Patterned bog and fen peatlands of the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) currently make up 90% of land cover in this region and form one of the largest continuous peatland complexes in the world. A globally significant storage of carbon, these peatlands are also unique ecosystems and perform valuable water regulation mechanisms in HBL watersheds. At present, the HBL region faces the increasing dual threats of resource extraction operations and increasing temperatures due to climate change, both of which may reduce water availability. In spite of their global significance, there is a dearth of information on the temporal and spatial patterns of hydrological connectivity across HBL peatland complexes, as well as the relative importance and variability of meteorological parameters. Further, studies attempting to characterize the effects of reduced water availability on hydrological structure and function in HBL peatland complexes are extremely limited. Such information is required to better understand the trajectory of these systems under future disturbance scenarios. To this end, hydrological (i.e., streamflow and groundwater levels), meteorological (i.e., precipitation, snow depth, evapotranspiration, and temperature) and hydrogeological/geochemical (i.e., porewater samples, peat depth, surface elevation, and hydrophysical properties) data were collected from both disturbed and undisturbed peatland complexes in the HBL between 2007 and 2018. Disturbed peatlands were located within the de-watering radius of the De Beers Victor Diamond Mine, located 90 km west of Attawapiskat. The undisturbed peatlands studied here were mainly within a bog-fen-tributary complex ~30 km south of the impacted transect, monitored by the Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks. Within the unimpacted peatland complex hydrological connectivity (the ease of water movement across the landscape) was generally highest in the spring, due to freshet, and fall, due to lower evapotranspiration losses. However, water transfer between peatland units occurred all year, including overwinter drainage through deeper unfrozen peat. Shoulder season temperatures were particularly important controls on hydrology by defining the length of the unfrozen season and partitioning snowmelt between peatland storage (if frost tables were absent) or streamflow (where frost tables were present). This region is projected to have greater temperature fluctuations, and longer unfrozen periods in the future, which will likely increase evapotranspiration and the frequency of snowmelt/ frost thaw desynchronization. The modelling of hydrological connectivity under this future scenario is recommended to better understand the long-term effects within this landscape. Within the peatlands of the mine impacted transect, large downward vertical gradients lowered water tables beyond the range of natural variability. Where depleted storage was observed subsidence of up to 15 cm occurred and was higher in peatlands with thin underlying marine sediment aquitard or where pre-consolidation pressures were low (i.e., fens). Where subsidence was measured, there was generally an accompanying decline in lateral hydraulic conductivity (Ksat); this drove bog-fen-tributary flowpaths deeper into the peat profile, thereby potentially reducing the amount of solute-rich waters that reached the surface of at downgradient fens. This altered hydrophysical state may limit further water losses in the future, however, the reduction of solute at the surface may shift these systems away from nutrient dependent fen vegetation towards ombrotrophic bogs. Hydrological connectivity is the ease of lateral water transfer downgradient that links runoff from peatlands to streamflow in downgradient channels; a state of hydrological connection occurs within patterned peatlands when the high transmissivity near surface is saturated. Where storage was depleted along the mine impacted transect, the proportion of time impacted peatlands spent in a hydrologically connected state was significantly reduced. Large bog-fen and fen-tributary gradients initially facilitated large water fluxes despite lower watertables, however reductions in water flux and even fen-tributary flux reversals occurred during the latter six years. In the downgradient tributaries, reduced lateral water inputs resulted in a lower normalized streamflow when compared to the unimpacted system, particularly in the latter half of the study period. In the majority of impacted peatlands, depleted water storage allowed for solute-poor precipitation to enter deeper in the peat profile while limiting the upwards advection of solute rich waters under fens. Post dewatering, the slow advection at depth and upwards diffusion of solute from the source (underlying marine sediment) may take decades or centuries for some solute concentrations (e.g., calcium) to recover within the most impacted locations. This may shift fens towards nutrient poor bogs; however, the equilibrium state of these peatlands is currently unknown. Future research should focus on applying the responses to disturbance here to different locations and scales of peatland complex in order to better understand the cumulative effects of these anthropogenic disturbances on the trajectory of these systems.

The Randle Reef contaminated site, located in the southwest corner of Hamilton Harbour, is approximately 60 hectares in size. This site contains approximately 695,000 m3 of sediment contaminated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and metals. The complex Randle Reef sediment remediation project is finally coming to fruition after more than 30 years of study, discussion, collaborations, stakeholder consensus-building, and debate. This paper unravels the reasons behind the delays associated with implementing sediment management at the Randle Reef site. In-depth interviews with experts and professionals from organizations who are/were involved in the project were conducted to identify the nature of performance in five theme areas that are important for successful action namely: (1) participation of appropriate actors with common objectives; (2) funding and resources; (3) decision-making process; (4) research and technology development; and (5) public and political support. It is evident from this study that the hurdles to progress with addressing contaminated sediment sites involve technical, political, regulatory as well as social challenges. We offer potential solutions and a series of recommendations based on experts' first-hand experience with the management of such complex sites to inform how future remediation projects can overcome obstacles.

A comparative analysis of practitioners' experience in sediment remediation projects to highlight best practices

Precipitation from Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in the central US are not only a large contributor to water resources, but a hazard to society due to hail, wind gusts, tornadoes, lightning, and flash floods. These severe storms can cause damage to houses, vehicles, and trees. Due to this significance, there is a large interest in using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to predict extreme weather and climate. Also, with a changing climate, it is important to understand how weather system characteristics will change in the future. Convection-permitting NWP models simulate convective processes more realistically than coarser grid models due to errors in local-scale processes and convective parameterization not accurately producing convection. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) conducted a continental-scale convection-allowing simulation using the regional Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The model simulations are made up of two parts: (1) A 13-year (2000–2013) simulation of historical weather and climate patterns, and (2) A pseudo global warming (PGW) simulation to project the weather and climate patterns at the end of the 21st century. This model was designed to have 4-km grid spacing covering the entire continental US and the southern portion of Canada (up to 56 ºN) and downscaled the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the period from October 2000 to September 2013. Downscaling to a higher resolution permits the model to simulate deep convection without parameterization, proving to be more realistic. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the historical portion of the WRF model’s capabilities in producing the characteristics of observed warm-season convection in the central United States, with an emphasis on radar reflectivity distribution, the diurnal cycle of precipitation and storm propagation. The secondary objective is to evaluate the PGW projection to understand how a future climate will impact radar reflectivity distribution, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, and storm propagation. The first objective is achieved by comparing the simulated composite (column maximum) radar by comparing the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Dopplers (WSR-88Ds) national mosaic is an objective of this research. Along with radar, the accumulated modeled precipitation is validated against the Stage IV multisensory gridded observed precipitation product. The comparison focuses on the central plains of the US for March through August. Specifically, the area of interest for this research is between 30 ºN and 45 ºN, and 90 ºW and 105 ºW. Results comparing the historical simulation to observations show that the simulation can produce a similar distribution of heavy extreme reflectivity values, yet is shown to underestimate light and moderate reflectivity and precipitation frequencies. This study also determined that the model can capture the timing of the precipitation diurnal cycle, including the general propagation of thunderstorms across the domain. However, there is a significant underestimation of nocturnal convection in the central US east of the high plains. These model deficiencies are partly due to small (> 4km) scale forcing mechanisms (i.e., cold pool propagation and undular bores) that play a role in nocturnal initiation of convection and the warm/dry bias present in the simulation during JJA. The research presented in this thesis illustrates that this convective permitting high-resolution WRF simulation is beneficial in understanding the precipitation patterns in the central US and possible effects of climate change on precipitation. However, the warm and dry bias present in the central US, lack of simulated small scale forcing mechanisms, and the PGW simulation not including the change in climate storm track dynamics should be considered as model weaknesses. This study concludes that this simulation can be more useful by improving the land surface and radiation schemes, improve the parameterization of small scale mechanisms and use a smaller horizontal grid spacing to simulate shallow convection better. This research should contribute to the climate modeling community since this is a high-resolution climate simulation that has shown to be a large improvement from coarse resolution climate models.

GWF-Paradigm Shift in Downscaling Climate Model Projections|

Ice jam behaviour has significant influence on the local ecology of inland deltas. The occurrence and/or absence of ice jams and the subsequent flooding can water or dry riverine delta floodplains and affect their ecological integrity. To better understand and quantify ice jams, historical and future ice jam behaviour is investigated and compared in this thesis from different perspectives. Modelling is a widely used method in the ice jam research field. A literature review on ice jam modelling research shows that previous studies made great advances in ice jam theory, however some research gaps are identified. Due to data limitations, ice jams in remote and data sparse areas are less understood. Similarly, understanding the impacts of climate change on future ice jam behaviour is still limited. To explore ice regimes in data sparse areas, an inland delta (the Slave River Delta) that lacks long term ice jam monitoring data was chosen as the study site. Input factor determination is a prerequisite for setting up numerical simulation of an ice jam. The inflowing ice volume, an input factor of the hydraulic model RIVICE, is determined from using remote sensing datasets as well as a simple ice thickness calculation method (the Cumulative Degree-Day of Freezing method). A calculation algorithm of ice volume estimation is proposed. After calibrating the RIVICE model for the Slave River Delta (SRD), two sensitivity analysis (SA) methods were implemented to evaluate the RIVICE model and to identify the sensitive parameters/boundary conditions. Ice thickness is identified as a sensitive input parameter of RIVICE, for which an ice thickness calculation framework (IceThick-RS) is developed. IceThick-RS, incorporating polarimetric parameters of C-band RADARSAT-2 images into the ice thickness calculation, is used to calculate river ice thicknesses at Fort Smith along the Slave River. The results calculated by using the IceThick-RS show better consistency with the gauged data than the Cumulative Degree-Day of Freezing method. A novel ice jam behaviour projection framework is developed to investigate climatic effects on ice jams. Future ice jam behaviour was quantified. The projected climatic dataset, CanRCM4-WFDEI-GEM-CaPA, was employed to drive the hydrological and hydraulic models to simulate the effects of future hydro-climatic conditions on ice jam behaviour. Trends of later ice jam initiation date and decreasing possibility of ice jamming were projected, which may exacerbate the drying trend in the SRD. On the other hand, higher extreme backwater elevations induced by ice jams in the SRD were also projected, which may increase the future ice jam flooding possibility. The inflowing ice volume estimation method, ice thickness calculation framework, and future ice jam behaviour projection framework are three important methodological contributions of this research.

GWF-Paradigm Shift in Downscaling Climate Model Projections|

noproject,submitted

A code clone is a pair of code fragments, within or between software systems that are similar. Since code clones often negatively impact the maintainability of a software system, several code clone detection techniques and tools have been proposed and studied over the last decade. However, the clone detection tools are not always perfect and their clone detection reports often contain a number of false positives or irrelevant clones from specific project management or user perspective. To detect all possible similar source code patterns in general, the clone detection tools work on the syntax level while lacking user-specific preferences. This often means the clones must be manually inspected before analysis in order to remove those false positives from consideration. This manual clone validation effort is very time-consuming and often error-prone, in particular for large-scale clone detection. In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for automating the validation process. First, a training dataset is built by taking code clones from several clone detection tools for different subject systems and then manually validating those clones. Second, several features are extracted from those clones to train the machine learning model by the proposed approach. The trained algorithm is then used to automatically validate clones without human inspection. Thus the proposed approach can be used to remove the false positive clones from the detection results, automatically evaluate the precision of any clone detectors for any given set of datasets, evaluate existing clone benchmark datasets, or even be used to build new clone benchmarks and datasets with minimum effort. In an experiment with clones detected by several clone detectors in several different software systems, we found our approach has an accuracy of up to 87.4% when compared against the manual validation by multiple expert judges. The proposed method also shows better results in several comparative studies with the existing related approaches for clone classification.

Convection-permitting regional climate models can provide better representations of physical processes, especially convection and underlying surface heterogeneity, in the climate system and provide more detailed climate projections at higher temporal and spatial resolution. However, biases still exist in high-resolution RCM simulations due to their deficiency in representations of sub-grid processes and unavoidable parameterization schemes. The RCM dynamical downscaling of future climate projection, therefore, needs bias-correction before their application. We present a new method to bias-correct the dynamically downscaled climate projection by convection-permitting WRF. The method, based on MBCn and machine learning,preserves the large-scale features of observed patterns in reanalysis with added detail from the RCM simulations. It also maintains the climate change signals between the future projection and the historical simulation.

Neary, L., Anderson, L., Hall, R., Wolfe, B. (2022) A new collaborative research project studying whooping crane nesting ponds in the Northwest Territories, Canada. GNWT-Laurier Partnership Annual General Meeting, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo.

A new collaborative research project studying whooping crane nesting ponds in the Northwest Territories, Canada

Canadian hydrological research is built on a strong legacy and has seen a steady progression over recent decades (Woo, 2019). Canada is a leader in cold regions hydrology and its varied landscapes have led to developments in our understanding of hydrological processes across forest, prairie, mountain, and wetland environments. Today’s early career researchers (ECRs), including graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and junior faculty, will shape the future of hydrological research in Canada. ECRs play an important role in advancing Canadian hydrological sciences as they make up a large portion of conference presentations and publications. The strong presence of students and other ECRs in the science community led the Canadian Young Hydrologic Society (CYHS) to organize a three-day workshop from July 4 – 6, 2019, in Montreal, QC. Thirty-three hydrology ECRs (within five years of their last degree, including graduate students) from across Canada discussed current and future challenges as well as emerging opportunities in Canadian hydrology. Each day, the workshop was comprised of small (6-10 people) peer-moderated group discussions followed by plenary discussions. These conversations formed the basis for this perspective paper. We outline three challenges faced by Canadian hydrology ECRs: (1) data management, (2) multidisciplinary methods and (3) scientific engagement with society. These scientific challenges have underlying institutional and cultural factors, which may exacerbate existing technical challenges or barriers. In other words, non-scientific aspects of graduate education and collaboration significantly impact scientific outcomes. We propose institutional and cultural shifts that can address inherent obstacles in Canadian hydrological research and can help us to propel the discipline forward in the coming decades.

Study region The Peace-Athabasca Delta, a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance in northeastern Alberta, is protected within Wood Buffalo National Park and contributes to its UNESCO World Heritage status yet is threatened by climate change and upstream energy projects. Study focus Recent drawdown of the delta’s abundant shallow lakes and rivers has deteriorated vital habitat for wildlife and impaired navigation routes. Here, we report continuous measurements at ~50 lakes during open-water seasons of 2018 and 2019 to improve understanding of hydrological processes causing lake-level variation. New hydrological insights for the region Analyses reveal four patterns of lake-level variation attributable to influential hydrological processes, which provide the basis for a new lake classification scheme: 1) ‘Drawdown’ (≥15 cm decline) by evaporation and/or outflow after ice-jam floods, 2) ‘Stable’ lake levels (<15 cm change) sustained by rainfall, 3) ‘Gradual Rise’ by inundation from the open-drainage network, and 4) ‘Rapid Rise’ by input of river floodwater. River flooding during the open-water season is an under-recognized recharge mechanism yet occurred extensively in the Athabasca sector and appears to be a common occurrence based on the Athabasca River hydrometric record. Lake-level loggers show strong ability to track shifts in hydrological processes, and can be integrated with other methods to decipher their causes and ecological consequences across water-rich landscapes.

Increasing hydrological variability, accelerating population growth and urbanisation, and the resurgence of water resources development projects have all indicated increasing tension among the riparian countries of transboundary rivers. While a wide range of disciplines develop their understandings of conflict and cooperation in transboundary river basins, few process-based interdisciplinary approaches are available for investigating the mechanism of conflict and cooperation. This article aims to develop a meta-theoretical socio-hydrological framework that brings the slow and less visible societal processes into existing hydrological–economic models and enables observations of the change in the cooperation process and the societal processes underlying this change, thereby contributing to revealing the mechanism that drives conflict and cooperation. This framework can act as a “middle ground”, providing a system of constituent disciplinary theories and models for developing formal models according to a specific problem or system under investigation. Its potential applicability is demonstrated in the Nile, Lancang–Mekong, and Columbia rivers.

Kakisa Lake and Tathlina Lake, located in the Dehcho Region of the Northwest Territories, support important fisheries for the local Ka’a’gee Tu First Nation (KTFN). Recently, Walleye (Sander vitreus) of typical catch size in Tathlina Lake were found to have mercury concentrations above Health Canada’s commercial sale guideline of 0.5 ppm. Wild foods with elevated mercury concentrations can pose health risks to the humans who consume them, depending on consumption amounts and vulnerability factors such as age and pregnancy. Because wild fish can accumulate relatively high mercury levels and subsistence fishing contributes greatly to food security in northern regions, mercury-related health risks to people are greater in the north than in the south, where wild fish are not as frequently consumed. Here, I examine and compare known drivers of fish mercury concentrations in two aquatic food webs to investigate causes of between-lake variation in mercury concentrations in food fishes. I relate analyses of food web structure, fish growth, and lake physicochemistry to mercury concentrations, and attempt to determine why fish mercury concentrations differ between Kakisa Lake and Tathlina Lake. Sediment and water methylmercury availability and primary producer abundance appear to be major factors influencing bioaccumulation of mercury in the food webs of each lake. Concentrations of methylmercury in sediment and water were higher in Tathlina Lake than in Kakisa Lake, and % methylmercury (of total mercury) in these ecosystem components indicate that the net mercury methylation rate is higher in Tathlina Lake than in Kakisa Lake. Kakisa Lake also had higher concentrations of chlorophyll a, indicating relatively higher rates of primary production and possible bloom dilution of mercury, which was further confirmed by trophic biomagnification modeling; these factors appear to have bottom-up impacts on the food webs of both lakes, including other food fishes. Walleye mercury concentrations also appeared to be affected by growth rates and perhaps growth efficiency, as suggested by evaluations of growth rates. This research is part of a larger project that seeks to assess the risks and benefits of fish consumption in the Northwest Territories, especially by Indigenous communities, who rely on natural fisheries for subsistence and for whom wild foods hold significant cultural and spiritual value.

Kakisa Lake and Tathlina Lake, located in the Dehcho Region of the Northwest Territories, support important fisheries for the local Ka’a’gee Tu First Nation (KTFN). Recently, Walleye (Sander vitreus) of typical catch size in Tathlina Lake were found to have mercury concentrations above Health Canada’s commercial sale guideline of 0.5 ppm. Wild foods with elevated mercury concentrations can pose health risks to the humans who consume them, depending on consumption amounts and vulnerability factors such as age and pregnancy. Because wild fish can accumulate relatively high mercury levels and subsistence fishing contributes greatly to food security in northern regions, mercury-related health risks to people are greater in the north than in the south, where wild fish are not as frequently consumed. Here, I examine and compare known drivers of fish mercury concentrations in two aquatic food webs to investigate causes of between-lake variation in mercury concentrations in food fishes. I relate analyses of food web structure, fish growth, and lake physicochemistry to mercury concentrations, and attempt to determine why fish mercury concentrations differ between Kakisa Lake and Tathlina Lake. Sediment and water methylmercury availability and primary producer abundance appear to be major factors influencing bioaccumulation of mercury in the food webs of each lake. Concentrations of methylmercury in sediment and water were higher in Tathlina Lake than in Kakisa Lake, and % methylmercury (of total mercury) in these ecosystem components indicate that the net mercury methylation rate is higher in Tathlina Lake than in Kakisa Lake. Kakisa Lake also had higher concentrations of chlorophyll a, indicating relatively higher rates of primary production and possible bloom dilution of mercury, which was further confirmed by trophic biomagnification modeling; these factors appear to have bottom-up impacts on the food webs of both lakes, including other food fishes. Walleye mercury concentrations also appeared to be affected by growth rates and perhaps growth efficiency, as suggested by evaluations of growth rates. This research is part of a larger project that seeks to assess the risks and benefits of fish consumption in the Northwest Territories, especially by Indigenous communities, who rely on natural fisheries for subsistence and for whom wild foods hold significant cultural and spiritual value.

Indigenous populations living in urban northern Ontario have been repeatedly ignored in research regarding Indigenous Peoples food insecurity and food systems, despite the large proportion of Indigenous Peoples living in the region and the unique challenges of the urban northern food environment. The purpose of this thesis is to explore and better understand how Indigenous Peoples in the urban northwestern Ontario service hubs of Sioux Lookout and Thunder Bay access Indigenous foods and the relationship of Indigenous food to their food security and Indigenous food sovereignty. The methodology of this project is based upon on the principles of community-based participatory research, intersectional feminist theory, and the USAI Framework (utility, self-voicing, access, and inter-relationality). Data were collected in open-ended interviews with stakeholders from three groups across the two cities (1) Indigenous female community members (n=6), (2) non-Indigenous staff of Indigenous-serving organizations (n=6), and (3) policymakers (i.e. those related to wild food policy or its implementation)(n=6). Two analyses were conducted. First, a thematic analysis of interview data from Indigenous community members and non-Indigenous staff of Indigenous-serving organizations characterized the impact of place and urbanicity on accessing Indigenous foods in both urban northwestern Ontario cities. Second, an Intersectionality-Based Policy Analysis framework was applied to analyze interview data from the entire sample which illuminated how the provincial and federal policy contexts have historically and continue to impact Indigenous women and their communities’ experiences of accessing wild foods in urban northwestern Ontario. Both place and urbanicity are central to how Indigenous populations in these towns harvest, share, and consume their Indigenous foods. On the community and individual levels, Indigenous Peoples in these towns are often in situations of food insecurity due to financial, geography, and policy barriers. Participants highlighted the abundance of ways that Indigenous food sovereignty is being expressed. Building food networks and sharing practices amongst friends, family, and broader communities (both inside and outside the city) was central to promoting access to Indigenous food for Indigenous Peoples in this study. Indigenous women pointed to colonial policies which make it impossible for most people to harvest in a self-determined way; thus, resistance is necessary. We found that stakeholder groups defined the policy problem differently and brought different values to their place in the systems which impede or facilitate access to wild foods. There was an acknowledgment of the conflict of Western food safety and natural resource management principles with Indigenous rights and Indigenous food sovereignty in theory and application. Implementation of food and natural resource policy is often unclear due to the tensions of government jurisdiction and the erasure of Indigenous Peoples’ experiences within Canadian cities. This thesis reiterates that Indigenous-led and culturally safe collaborations between the Indigenous community and other organizations are critical to improving Indigenous food sovereignty in these urban settings. Illuminating the non-Indigenous actors’ understandings of Indigenous Peoples' food security and sovereignty in urban settings is key as they hold power in colonial institutions. There is a continued need for Indigenous distinctions-based and intersectional approaches in all policy at all levels – from the federal to the institutional.

Perfluoroethylcyclohexanesulfonate (PFECHS) is an emerging perfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS) that has been considered a potential replacement for perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS). However, there is little information characterizing the toxic potency of PFECHS to zebrafish embryos and its potential for effects in aquatic environments. This study assessed toxic potency of PFECHS in vivo during both acute (96-hour postfertilization) and chronic (21-day posthatch) exposures and tested concentrations of PFECHS from 500 ng/L to 2 mg/L. PFECHS was less likely to cause mortalities than PFOS for both the acute and chronic experiments based on previously published values for PFOS exposure, but exposure resulted in a similar incidence of deformities. Exposure to PFECHS also resulted in significantly increased abundance of transcripts of peroxisome proliferator activated receptor alpha (ppar?), cytochrome p450 1a1 (cyp1a1), and apolipoprotein IV (apoaIV) at concentrations nearing those of environmental relevance. Overall, these results provide further insight into the safety of an emerging PFAS alternative in the aquatic environment and raise awareness that previously considered “safer” alternatives may show similar effects as legacy PFASs

Mahoney, H., Cantin, J., Rybchuk, J., Xie, Y., Giesy, J. P., Brinkmann, M. (2023) Acute Exposure of Zebrafish (Danio rerio) to the Next-Generation Perfluoroalkyl Substance, Perfluoroethylcyclohexanesulfonate, Shows Similar Effects as Legacy Substances. Envir. Sci. Technol. 57:4199-4207. HTTPS://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c08463

Acute Exposure of Zebrafish (Danio rerio) to the Next-Generation Perfluoroalkyl Substance, Perfluoroethylcyclohexanesulfonate, Shows Similar Effects as Legacy Substances

noproject,accepted

Wittrock, V., S. Kulshreshtha, L. Magzul, and E. Wheaton, 2008: Adapting to impacts of climatic extremes: Case study of the Kainai Blood Indian Reserve, Alberta. Institutional Adaptation to Climate Change: A Project of SSRHC – MCRI Program, 108 pp.

Institutional Adaptation to Climate Change: A Project of SSRHC – MCRI Program, 108 pp

Increasing demands to address some of society’s most complex environmental and sustainability issues are defining a new agenda for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) research and practice. SEA, practiced solely in accordance with the traditional project EIA paradigm, has in the past failed to live up to its promise of facilitating true sustainability transitions and promoting the strategic choices needed to achieve broader sustainability goals and objectives. This thesis advances the notion that in order for SEA to fully realize its potential as a sustainability decision-making tool, attention must be paid to the decision processes for addressing environmental and sustainability issues, including the relevant institutional arrangements and governance structures that can enable or constrain the successful formulation and implementation of strategic initiatives. In comparison to the more traditional understanding of SEA as an impact assessment-based tool, however, such an approach to SEA remains relatively undeveloped and untested. The thesis provides a distinct conceptualization that frames SEA as agency in the broader context of socio-technical transitions for sustainability. The research adopts a mixed-method approach, which primarily entails an in-depth review of scholarly literature, document analysis, and semi-structured interviews. The results are presented in four manuscripts. The first manuscript provides a systematic conceptualization of the various SEA approaches and also highlights the need for a new research agenda focused on the development and testing of an institution-centered and more deliberative governance approach to SEA. The second manuscript explores the diversity and state of SEA practice in Canada in light the multiple dimensions of SEA effectiveness. While much of current practice under the Cabinet directive remains entrenched in project-based assessment principles, more exemplary cases of SEA and SEA-like practices are occurring in diverse forms across Canada. The third manuscript presents the transition-based SEA conceptual framework detailing the key elements and strategic questions to be asked in such EA design. The SEA design focuses on the guiding vision for transitions, the institutional context and governance arrangements, opportunities and risks of proposed sustainability pathways, progress indicators for on-going transition management, and impacts of the exogenous landscape. Finally the fourth manuscript provides an empirical application of the framework to the case of renewable energy transitions in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada. The results highlight the need for transparency and accountability to ensure effective implementation of the transition-based SEA design. The thesis concludes with a recap of the current state of knowledge in terms of SEA research and practice, discusses the research implications of advancing SEA methodology following the transition-based approach. The thesis defines the path for a renewed research agenda and contributes to the much-needed advancement in SEA theory and practice.

To advance monitoring of surface water resources, new remote sensing technologies including the forthcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite (expected launch 2022) and its experimental airborne prototype AirSWOT are being developed to repeatedly map water surface elevation (WSE) and slope (WSS) of the world’s rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. However, the vertical accuracies of these novel technologies are largely unverified; thus, standard and repeatable field procedures to validate remotely sensed WSE and WSS are needed. To that end, we designed, engineered, and operationalized a Water Surface Profiler (WaSP) system that efficiently and accurately surveys WSE and WSS in a variety of surface water environments using Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) time-averaged measurements with Precise Point Positioning corrections. Here, we present WaSP construction, deployment, and a data processing workflow. We demonstrate WaSP data collections from repeat field deployments in the North Saskatchewan River and three prairie pothole lakes near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. We find that WaSP reproducibly measures WSE and WSS with vertical accuracies similar to standard field survey methods [WSE root mean squared difference (RMSD) ∼8 cm, WSS RMSD ∼1.3 cm/km] and that repeat WaSP deployments accurately quantify water level changes (RMSD ∼3 cm). Collectively, these results suggest that WaSP is an easily deployed, self-contained system with sufficient accuracy for validating the decimeter-level expected accuracies of SWOT and AirSWOT. We conclude by discussing the utility of WaSP for validating airborne and spaceborne WSE mappings, present 63 WaSP in situ lake WSE measurements collected in support of NASA’s Arctic-Boreal and Vulnerability Experiment, highlight routine deployment in support of the Lake Observation by Citizen Scientists and Satellites project, and explore WaSP utility for validating a novel GNSS interferometric reflectometry LArge Wave Warning System.

Management strategies aimed at reducing nutrient enrichment of surface waters may be hampered by nutrient legacies that have accumulated in the landscape. Here, we apply the Net Anthropogenic Phosphorus Input (NAPI) model to reconstruct the historical phosphorus (P) input trajectories for the province of Ontario, which encompasses the Canadian portion of the drainage basin of the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL). NAPI considers P inputs from detergent, human and livestock waste, fertilizer inputs, and P outputs by crop uptake. During the entire time period considered, from 1961 to 2016, Ontario experienced positive annual NAPI values. Despite a generally downward NAPI trend since the late 1970s, the lower LGL, especially Lake Erie, continue to be plagued by algal blooms. When comparing NAPI results and river monitoring data for the period 2003 to 2013, P discharged by Canadian rivers into Lake Erie only accounts for 12.5% of the NAPI supplied to the watersheds' agricultural areas. Thus, over 85% of the agricultural NAPI is retained in the watersheds where it contributes to a growing P legacy, primarily as soil P. The slow release of legacy P therefore represents a long-term risk to the recovery of the lake. To help mitigate this risk, we present a methodology to spatially map out the source areas with the greatest potential of erosional export of legacy soil P to surface waters. These areas should be prioritized in soil conservation efforts.

The Alberta government is partnering with WaterSMART Solutions, a company that deals with complex water management issues, in an effort to mitigate the risk of severe drought this year in Alberta. The government said that parts of the province have experienced drought and water shortages for the past three years and this year will be no different. With less snowfall this season, the province is concerned that rivers and reservoirs are below normal levels. John Pomeroy, University of Saskatchewan professor and Canada research chair in water resources and climate change, earlier this month confirmed those fears. He called drought conditions in Alberta last year the” worst of a lifetime.” Pomeroy expressed concern over the upcoming season, and Alberta’s access to water. “The reservoirs are extremely low in the mountains and the irrigation districts, soil moisture reserves are depleted in the agricultural regions and groundwater is starting to drop down. So we don’t have any reserves to fall back on if this drought continues.” The province payed $350,000 for the contract with WaterSMART. Alberta’s Minister of Environment and Protected Areas Rebecca Schulz said this is a necessary step to mitigate the risk of severe drought. “The work we are announcing will help the province conduct advanced drought modelling and explore innovative ways to maximize Alberta’s water supply. This is all a key part of our efforts to continue our work to help conserve and manage water now and be prepared for uncertain conditions in the future,” said Schulz. “People, industry, agriculture and the environment all depend on water for survival. This project will help ensure effective water management practices are in place by bringing together the largest water users to collaboratively determine the best solutions for managing through uncertain water conditions this year.” WaterSMART has experience working in the South Saskatchewan River Basin. Experts will compile data to produce modelling to help the province understand how much water will be available to use this year. “This project will help ensure effective water management practices are in place by bringing together the largest water users to collaboratively determine the best solutions for managing through uncertain water conditions this year,” WaterSMART Solutions CEO Kim Sturgess said. As for what’s to come for the province, Pomeroy said he expects more water restrictions across Alberta if there’s no improvement in water levels.

Prior to the beginning of the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Solid Precipitation Inter-Comparison Experiment (SPICE, 2013–2015), two precipitation measurement intercomparison sites were established in Saskatchewan to help assess the systematic bias in the automated gauge measurement of solid precipitation and the impact of wind on the undercatch of snow. Caribou Creek, located in the southern boreal forest, and Bratt's Lake, located in the southern plains, are a contribution to the international SPICE project but also to examine national and regional issues in measuring solid precipitation, including regional assessment of wind bias in precipitation gauges and windshield configurations commonly used in Canadian monitoring networks. Overlapping with WMO-SPICE, the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) Special Observation and Analysis Period (SOAP) occurred from 2014 to 2015, involving other enhanced observations and cold regions research projects in the same geographical domain as the Saskatchewan SPICE sites. Following SPICE, the two Saskatchewan sites continued to collect core meteorological data (temperature, humidity, wind speed, etc.) as well as precipitation observations via several automated gauge configurations, including the WMO automated reference and the Meteorological Service of Canada's (MSC) network gauges. In addition, manual snow surveys to collect snow cover depth, density, and water equivalent were completed over the duration of the winter periods at the northern Caribou Creek site. Starting in the fall of 2013, the core intercomparison precipitation and ancillary data continued to be collected through the winter of 2017. Automated observations were obtained at a temporal resolution of 1 min, subjected to a rigorous quality control process, and aggregated to a resolution of 30 min. The manual snow surveys at Caribou Creek were typically performed every second week during the SPICE field program with monthly surveys following the end of the SPICE intercomparison period. The Saskatchewan SPICE data are available at https://doi.org/10.18164/63773b5b-5529-4b1e-9150-10acb84d59f0 (Smith and Yang, 2018). The data collected at the Saskatchewan SPICE sites will continue to be useful for transfer function testing, numerical weather prediction and hydrological forecasting verification, ground truth for remote-sensing applications, as well as providing reference precipitation measurements for other concurrent research applications in the cold regions.

The fork-based development mechanism provides the flexibility and the unified processes for software teams to collaborate easily in a distributed setting without too much coordination overhead. Currently, multiple social coding platforms support fork-based development, such as GitHub, GitLab, and Bitbucket. Although these different platforms virtually share the same features, they have different emphasis. As GitHub is the most popular platform and the corresponding data is publicly available, most of the current studies are focusing on GitHub hosted projects. However, we observed anecdote evidences that people are confused about choosing among these platforms, and some projects are migrating from one platform to another, and the reasons behind these activities remain unknown. With the advances of Software Heritage Graph Dataset (SWHGD), we have the opportunity to investigate the forking activities across platforms. In this paper, we conduct an exploratory study on 10 popular open-source projects to identify cross-platform forks and investigate the motivation behind. Preliminary result shows that cross-platform forks do exist. For the 10 subject systems used in this study, we found 81,357 forks in total among which 179 forks are on GitLab. Based on our qualitative analysis, we found that most of the cross-platform forks that we identified are mirrors of the repositories on another platform, but we still find cases that were created due to preference of using certain functionalities (e.g. Continuous Integration (CI)) supported by different platforms. This study lays the foundation of future research directions, such as understanding the differences between platforms and supporting cross-platform collaboration.

Bonsal, B. R., Cuell, C., Wheaton, E., Sauchyn, D. J., & Barrow, E. (2017). An assessment of historical and projected future hydro-climatic variability and extremes over southern watersheds in the Canadian Prairies. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4967

An assessment of historical and projected future hydro-climatic variability and extremes over southern watersheds in the Canadian Prairies

An extreme value based likelihood ratio test to evaluate BCCAQv2's capability for downscaling and projecting future unprecedented precipitation extremes

An ever-growing Canadian urban population could be severely impacted by increase in temperature. Canada’s mean temperature is projected to increase by 6-8°C towards the end of the 21st century. The consequence of rising temperatures is an increased likelihood of extreme temperature events like heatwaves and wildfires. The thesis aims to assess changes in extreme temperature in large Canadian urban areas. The research will help in developing mitigation measures like urban planning, which help cope with changing temperature extremes. Predicting urban temperature change will require rigorous assessment of climate models, to account for the uncertainty in projecting temperature in large urban agglomerates. CMIP6 ensemble of models, provide an opportunity for assessment of urban-based projections. The models however, would need to be of fine resolution to fully capture its variability since urban temperature is heavily influenced by local urban features that contribute to Urban heat island (UHI). Historical maximum and minimum temperature trends are analyzed for eighteen urban areas in the Canada with population greater than 250,000 and use twelve CMIP6 models of fine resolution (<1°), and four tier-one emission scenarios to assess maximum, minimum, and mean temperature trends in future. An efficient observation dataset, Serially based station data (SCDNA), was used as a reference observation dataset and a novel bias-correction technique, the Semi-Parametric Quantile Mapping method (SPQM), was used to bias-correct future temperature data. Extreme temperature events were analyzed with the help of eight selected indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), across all the emission scenarios for all the cities in the study. The indices were computed for the entire future time-period (2021-2100) and for three time-slices, T1 (2021-2050), T2 (2040-2070) and T3 (2070-2100) to assess temporal variability. The magnitude, frequency, and duration of the occurrence of extreme events can be analyzed effectively using the ETCCDI indices, classified as absolute, threshold, and duration Indices and percentile indices. The historical temperature trends in Canadian cities were found to be related with urban features like elevation and population-growth but not strongly linked with urban area. Other features of UHI were deemed essential to understand the transitioning of historical and future temperature trends in Canada. Four emission scenarios predict increasing mean temperatures in all Canadian cities, except for the optimistic emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), which shows a marginal decreasing trend in the last quarter of the 21st century. Uneven changes are noted in all the projected indices, for example, in the annual maxima of daily maximum temperature (TXx), i.e., an increase of 0.5 °C and 0.6 °C per decade over the T1 and T2 respectively, and 0.99°C for T3 for the SSP5-8.5. Results show faster rates of warming across Canadian cities especially for the higher emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Spatial trends of extreme temperature indices correlate with temperature trends in individual climate zones in Canada, and the cities associated with a zone, expectedly experience similar trends. Cities in the Prairies and the Great Lakes zones, experience the highest increasing trends over the absolute and threshold indices in the higher emission scenarios, whereas the cities in the Canadian coasts experience higher increasing trends in the percentile indices. Lower emission scenarios also point towards increasing spatial trends in all Canadian cities. The coastal cities also experience the highest trends for the warm-spell duration index (WSDI) and a decreasing trend in the cold-spell duration index (CSDI). Spatial patterns of duration indices in the Canadian coastal cities point towards hotter summers, and milder winters, whereas the cities in the Canadian prairies, the Great Lakes, and Quebec will experience hotter summers with longer durations of extremely hot weather, in addition to persistence of harsher winters. Temperature projections have several applications, for example, in civil engineering applications, where temperature has a great role in the estimation and assessment of concrete and reinforcement deterioration. Another field of research is urban-based mortality studies, a consequence of the increasing frequency and duration of extreme temperature events. Heat-wave analysis, estimated through extreme temperature indices, forms the basis for estimating mortality rates from heat waves and other extreme temperature events. Climate models and CMIP6 models have systematic errors in their development and hence can only predict temperature projections with a limited degree of confidence. An extension of the work in this thesis could be the use of various model performance indicators, that quantitatively assess the performance of temperature projections made by CMIP6 models in Canadian cities. The future temperature projections and estimations of heat waves provide a scientific basis for a better understanding of the temperature patterns and temperature-related extreme events in Canadian cities and thus help facilitate climate change adaptation.

Rates of food insecurity in Canada’s northern Indigenous communities are at levels that should constitute an emergency. Dominant explanations for these high rates of food insecurity often ignore the ongoing impacts of colonization and over-emphasize individual choices and nutritional guidelines developed by outsiders. The importance of holistic community health is ignored, along with the cultural and social values and practices that support community health and well-being, including traditional food systems. As the acute impact of climate change in the North threatens traditional food access, a shift toward an Indigenous food sovereignty approach in health and food policy is needed. With an emphasis on decolonization and prioritizing Indigenous ways of knowing, this approach supports communities pursuing self-determined food systems. The community of Kakisa in the Northwest Territories has a hybrid food system primarily comprised of traditional food and market food, with a small amount of produce from their community gardens supplementing their food needs. As their access to traditional food sources are increasingly strained due to environmental and social changes, reliance on market food is prominent in Kakisa. The community sees small-scale food production as an important step towards increasing their access to fresh produce during part of the year, and in turn, their resilience in the face of changing conditions. This investigation into the goals, successes, and barriers for growing food in Kakisa was undertaken in 2018. Using a Participatory Action Research approach that was informed by Indigenous methodologies, this research evaluated the community gardening project to produce an action plan for the future of growing food in Kakisa. Data gathered through interviews and participant observation was examined using a narrative approach to inductive analysis. The themes that emerged showed that, for the residents of Kakisa, successful local food production is driven by community participation and contributes to their self-sufficiency while taking care of the land and community. The application of an Indigenous food sovereignty framework revealed how Kakisa’s pursuit of self-determination can overcome the limitations of using a southern model of community gardening in a northern, Indigenous community; however, current food system policies remain a barrier to this pursuit.

Climate change and food security are complex global issues that require multidisciplinary approaches to resolve. A nexus exists between both issues, especially in developing countries, but little prior research has successfully bridged the divide. Existing resolutions to climate change and food security are expensive and resource demanding. Climate modelling is at the forefront of climate change literature and development planning, whereas agronomy research is leading food security plans. The Benin Republic and Nigeria have grown and developed in recent years but may not have all the tools required to implement and sustain long-term food security in the face of climate change. The objective of this paper is to describe the development and outputs of a new model that bridges climate change and food security. Data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 5th Regional Assessment (IPCC AR5) were combined with a biodiversity database to develop the model to derive these outputs. The model was used to demonstrate what potential impacts climate change will have on the regional food security by incorporating agronomic data from four local underutilized indigenous vegetables (Amaranthus cruentus L., Solanum macrocarpon L., Telfairia occidentalis Hook f., and Ocimum gratissimum L.). The model shows that, by 2099, there is significant uncertainty within the optimal recommendations that originated from the MicroVeg project. This suggests that MicroVeg will not have long-term success for food security unless additional options (e.g., new field trials, shifts in vegetable grown) are considered, creating the need for need for more dissemination tools.

Causes of software architectural change are clas- sified as perfective, preventive, corrective, and adaptive. Change classification is used to promote common approaches for address- ing similar changes, produce appropriate design documentation for a release, construct a developer’s profile, form a balanced team, support code review, etc. However, automated architectural change classification techniques are in their infancy, perhaps due to the lack of a benchmark dataset and the need for extensive human involvement. To address these shortcomings, we present a benchmark dataset and a text classifier for determining the architectural change rationale from commit descriptions. First, we explored source code properties for change classification independent of project activity descriptions and found poor outcomes. Next, through extensive analysis, we identified the challenges of classifying architectural change from text and pro- posed a new classifier that uses concept tokens derived from the concept analysis of change samples. We also studied the sensitivity of change classification of various types of tokens present in commit messages. The experimental outcomes employing 10- fold and cross-project validation techniques with five popular open-source systems show that the F1 score of our proposed classifier is around 70%. The precision and recall are mostly consistent among all categories of change and more promising than competing methods for text classification.

The Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) covers a large portion of the Canadian Prairies. Agriculture represents a dominant land-use in the SRB, and since the early 1900s irrigation has evolved to become an important part of the sector, improving yields and enabling the production of high-value crops. With climate change projected to increase temperatures and alter precipitation patterns, uncertainty surrounding water security for irrigators and First Nations in the SRB is expected to increase. Given the impacts of climate change, the recent announcements from the Alberta and Saskatchewan Governments regarding irrigation expansion, and the risks faced by First Nations under changing streamflow conditions, a hydrologic analysis of the SRB that dynamically incorporates climate change and irrigation is required to assess future water security and the viability of current water governance (i.e., the Master Agreement on Apportionment). This study integrates Prairie-specific irrigation in the HYPE hydrologic model, and uses RCP8.5 NA-CORDEX climate simulations from 1976 to 2070 to estimate the effects of climate change. The results indicate that (1) drier summers are likely to put a strain on irrigation water supplies during the growing season; (2) that irrigation in the upstream reaches of the basin may cause reduced streamflow and a loss of seasonality in the downstream reaches, with implications for riparian ecosystems and the Saskatchewan River Delta; (3) that the system of prior allocation in Alberta puts disproportional water security risk on First Nations under low flow conditions; and (4) that compliance with the Master Agreement on Apportionment may become increasingly challenging on the South Saskatchewan River under future conditions.

Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steud., the invasive common reed, is a perennial grass with a cosmopolitan distribution. Unlike the native subspecies (Phragmites australis subsp. americanus) in North America, this invasive haplotype is an aggressive competitor and has firmly established itself throughout the Great Lakes basin by dominating wetlands and wet habitat, forcing out native plants and creating monocultures of little use to native fauna. Growing clonally and from seed, invasive Phragmites can quickly dominate wet areas throughout North America. It has also become a prominent feature in roadside habitats, where native plants are subject to increased disturbance under which invasive Phragmites will thrive competitively. In order to effectively manage this aggressive invader, we must be able to accurately map its distribution at multiple spatial scales, understand its invasion ecology, and determine efficacy of current removal efforts. In this thesis, I evaluated multiple remote sensing methods to determine the extent of invasive Phragmites. The basin-wide wetland mapping project based on satellite image data was a collaborative effort between U.S. and Canadian scientists to document the current and potential distribution of invasive Phragmites throughout 10-km of the shoreline of the Great Lakes, including all coastal marshes. To elucidate its distribution through road networks, I used provincial orthophotography databases to map changes in the distribution of Phragmites in road corridors between 2006 and 2010. Based on these data, I created a conceptual model to show the relationships among the main factors that govern the establishment of invasive Phragmites in roadsides within Ontario. These factors included habitat quality, habitat availability, and propagule dispersal. I also showed how unmanned aerial vehicles can be used with very high accuracy to map the distribution of very small stands of Phragmites at the beginning of an invasion, and to determine short-term changes in habitat availability in smaller wetlands. Using various remote sensing approaches, I was able to determine the efficacy of treatment programs implemented by provincial agencies on roadway corridors at the scale of the entire southwestern, southcentral and central regions of Ontario. This is the first quantitative evidence of invasive Phragmites removal along roads and one of the largest spatial and temporal time scales used to evaluate these processes. Finally, I synthesized the capabilities and limitations of these remote sensing methods to create an evaluative framework that outlines how to best map invasive Phragmites across varying landscapes. This research integrates geography and biology to create novel mapping techniques for invasive Phragmites and has furthered our understanding of this aggressive plant and how its invasion can be controlled.

Floods are natural disasters with a significant impact on regions worldwide. They cause extensive damage to infrastructure, disrupt transportation and communication networks, and lead to the displacement of populations. Moreover, floods have long-term consequences on ecosystems, agriculture, and economies. In recent years, Canada has experienced several devastating flood events, highlighting the nation’s vulnerability to such disasters. Climate change, with its associated extreme weather patterns, has exacerbated the frequency and intensity of these events. Specifically, heavy rainfall and rapid snowmelt have triggered extensive flooding in multiple provinces. As global temperatures rise and weather patterns change, the world must remain vigilant and adapt approaches to address the evolving threat of floods. To address this issue, we present an extensive investigation of climate models’ performance in reproducing annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP) globally and daily snow depth (SD) in Canadian catchments. We analyze projections for extreme precipitation, emphasizing the importance of adopting non-stationary models. Additionally, we introduce a stochastic model replicating SD time series with the same observed statistical properties to overcome limited observed SD data. These studies employ advanced and novel statistical methods, including bivariate analyses, L-moment metrics, Monte Carlo analysis, and autoregressive models. To accurately assess climate models, we use numerous unique observational datasets, along with the latest generation of climate models, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), to reflect recent advances in climate change impacts. First, the results show that 70% of CMIP6 models exhibit a percentage difference of ±10% in annual maxima mean and variation. However, CMIP6 simulations generally overestimate daily SD by at least 10%, with some regions challenging to simulate due to their complex atmospheric and land interactions, such as the Arctic and tropical regions. Second, extreme precipitation projections indicate that the return period of 100-year historical events will decrease by approximately 50% and 70% in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Under the highest emission scenario, the projected 100-year levels are expected to increase by 7.5% to 21% over historical levels. Using stationary models to estimate the 100-year return level for AMP projections with trends leads to an average underestimation of 3.4%. Third, the developed stochastic model can reproduce daily distributions, temporal clustering and correlation, daily probability of zero, and annual seasonal patterns. This model can provide a reliable synthetic time series of SD, minimizing the scarcity of observed data for SD. This thesis provides engineers with essential information about climate change impacts, climate model performance, statistical behaviour of various models, and necessary datasets related to AMP and SD, which contribute to severe floods. Therefore, the findings are essential for hydrological, hydrodynamical, ecological, and water resources applications, helping society adapt to extreme climate conditions.

High-latitude environments store approximately half of the global organic carbon pool in peatlands, organic soils and permafrost, while large Arctic rivers convey an estimated 18–50 Tg C a−1 to the Arctic Ocean. Warming trends associated with climate change affect dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export from terrestrial to riverine environments. However, there is limited consensus as to whether exports will increase or decrease due to complex interactions between climate, soils, vegetation, and associated production, mobilization and transport processes. A large body of research has focused on large river system DOC and dissolved organic matter (DOM) lability and observed trends conserved across years, whereas investigation at smaller watershed scales show that thermokarst and fire have a transient impact on hydrologically mediated solute transport. This study, located in the Wolf Creek Research Basin situated ∼20 km south of Whitehorse, YT, Canada, utilizes a nested design to assess seasonal and annual patterns of DOC and DOM composition across diverse landscape types (headwater, wetland and lake) and watershed scales. Peak DOC concentration and export occurred during freshet, as is the case in most northern watersheds; however, peaks were lower than a decade ago at the headwater site Granger Creek. DOM composition was most variable during freshet with high A254 and SUVA254 and low FI and BIX. DOM composition was relatively insensitive to flow variation during summer and fall. The influence of increasing watershed scale and downstream mixing of landscape contributions was an overall dampening of DOC concentrations and optical indices with increasing groundwater contribution. Forecasted vegetation shifts, enhanced permafrost and seasonal thaw, earlier snowmelt, increased rainfall and other projected climate-driven changes will alter DOM sources and transport pathways. The results from this study support a projected shift from predominantly organic soils (high aromaticity and less fresh) to decomposing vegetation (more fresh and lower aromaticity). These changes may also facilitate flow and transport via deeper flow pathways and enhance groundwater contributions to runoff.

Although water covers 70% of the earth's surface, less than 1% of it is freshwater that can be used for drinking. Even in Canada, where there is an abundance of freshwater in groundwater and in rivers and lakes, there are many indigenous communities that lack a sustainable source of drinking water. Such is the case for the Six Nations of the Grand River, the largest indigenous Reserve in Canada, located within an hour drive from major urban centers in southern Ontario and where less than 9% of the residents have access to safe, treated potable water. The major tributaries that drain the Six Nations reserve are part of the McKenzie Creek Watershed, which has been characterized as having the highest loading of sediments and nutrients to the lower Grand River, which eventually drains into the eastern basin of Lake Erie. This research project was initiated by the Six Nations community, who wanted an update on the prevalence of fecal contamination in their drinking water sources (wells, cisterns). Secondly, the community wanted to know the ecosystem health status of tributaries flowing through the Six Nations Reserve (McKenzie and Boston Creeks), and to determine if land uses in the watershed were negatively affecting the health of these streams. A study conducted in the summer of 2018 confirmed that 29% of the tap water tested in 75 households were contaminated with E. coli; 40% of the wells and 15% of the cisterns were contaminated and these were distributed throughout the Reserve with no apparent pattern. A study conducted in the summer of 2019 found that the McKenzie Creek was highly polluted with total phosphorus (P), total suspended solids, turbidity and total-ammonia nitrogen (N), while Boston Creek was highly polluted with soluble reactive P and E. coli as well as total-nitrate N. Nitrogen concentrations at 14 stations were highly and significantly related to percentage of agricultural land in catchments. Elevated levels of pollutants have been observed in the two creeks for three decades, indicating that conditions will not improve without remedial actions.

In Canada, Indigenous youth have remained resilient despite being confronted with a wide range of structural and systemic risks, such as long-lasting boil water advisories, over-representation in the child welfare system, and injustices related to land treaties. As people of the land, all disruptions to ecological health are a disruption to personal and community holistic health. Land-based activities and cultural continuity strengthen pathways of perseverance for Indigenous youth (Toombs et al., 2016). For youth, cultural self-expression and personal agency are enhanced with digital platforms, which are well-suited to Indigenous people’s strengths in art, music, and oral forms of passing on knowledge. The field of mental health has turned to e-supports such as mobile applications (apps) that can provide easy-to-access intervention, when needed. To date, resilience interventions have received comparatively less attention than the study of resilience factors and processes. It is timely to review the extant literature on mental health apps with Indigenous youth as, currently, Indigenous apps are in early research stages. Critically reviewing work to date, it is argued that an inclusive and expansive concept of resilience, coherent with Indigenous holistic health views, is well-positioned as a foundation for collaborative resilience app development. To date, few mental health apps have been researched with Indigenous youth, and fewer have been co-constructed with Indigenous youth and their community members. The current literature points to feasibility in terms of readiness or potential usage, and functionality for promoting an integrated cultural and holistic health lens. As this effort may be specific to a particular Indigenous nation’s values, stories, and practices, we highlight the Haudenosaunee conceptual wellness model as one example to guide Indigenous and non-Indigenous science integration, with a current project underway with the JoyPopTM mHealth app for promoting positive mental health and resilience.

The McKenzie Creek is an intermediate size tributary within the southern portion of the Grand River in the Great Lakes Basin. The Creek is an important ecosystem service provider, supplying water for agricultural irrigation to the rural communities within the sub-watershed as well as the Six Nations of the Grand River reserve, the largest First Nations community by population in Canada. It is understood that lakes, river, and streams will be impacted by temperature increases and changes in precipitation patterns. Climate change projections for the McKenzie Creek sub-watershed indicate that the region will experience a 3-6°C increase in annual average temperature and increase in winter and early spring precipitation. This study explores the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the McKenzie Creek. The Coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow Model (GSFLOW) was used to simulate changes in streamflow within the sub-watershed from 1951 to 2099. GSFLOW was run using observed NRCANmet gridded data, and 11 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCM) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Findings suggest that in the future McKenzie Creek streamflow will be most affected during winter months with streamflow projected to increase while spring streamflow is expected to decrease and summer and fall streamflow will experience little to no change. These changes may lead to more winter and early spring flooding events, while summer low flows may result in drought events in this sub-watershed. Understanding of how climatic changes will impact the McKenzie Creek streamflow will provide water managers and users with important information to better plan of the future.

Assessing the legacy effects of large-scale flooding in 2020 on hydro-limnological conditions of lakes in the Peace-Athabasca Delta (Alberta, Canada)

Water resources in cold regions in western Canada face severe risks posed by anthropogenic global warming as evapotranspiration increases and precipitation regimes shift. Although understanding the water cycle is key for addressing climate change issues, it is difficult to obtain high spatial- and temporal-resolution observations of hydroclimatic processes, especially in remote regions. Climate models are useful tools for dissecting and diagnosing these processes, especially the convection-permitting (CP) high-resolution regional climate simulation, which provides advantages over lower-resolution models by explicitly representing convection. In addition to better representing convective systems, higher spatial resolution also better represents topography, mountain meteorology, and highly heterogeneous geophysical features. However, there is little work with convection-permitting regional climate models conducted over western Canada. Focusing on the Mackenzie River and Saskatchewan River basins, this study investigated the surface water budget and atmospheric moisture balance in historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) projections using 4 km CP Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). We compared the high-resolution 4 km CP WRF and three common reanalysis datasets, namely the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis interim dataset (ERA-Interim). High-resolution WRF outperforms the reanalyses in balancing the surface water budget in both river basins with much lower residual terms. For the pseudo-global-warming scenario at the end of the 21st century with representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) radiative forcing, both the Mackenzie River and Saskatchewan River basins show increases in the amplitude for precipitation and evapotranspiration and a decrease in runoff. The Saskatchewan River basin (SRB) shows a moderate increase in precipitation in the west and a small decrease in the east. Combined with a significant increase in evapotranspiration in a warmer climate, the Saskatchewan River basin would have a larger deficit of water resources than in the current climate based on the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) simulation. The high-resolution simulation also shows that the difference of atmospheric water vapour balance in the two river basins is due to flow orientation and topography differences at the western boundaries of the two basins. The sensitivity of water vapour balance to fine-scale topography and atmospheric processes shown in this study demonstrates that high-resolution dynamical downscaling is important for large-scale water balance and hydrological cycles.

Assessment and projection of the water budget over western Canada using convection-permitting weather research and forecasting simulations

Lakes are regarded as sentinels of change, where shifts in environmental conditions significantly affect lake phenology. A significant consequence of the change is the perceived increase in the frequency, magnitude, and severity of algal blooms in lakes globally. Algal blooms/increased productivity in lakes pose significant ecological, economic and health risks, impacting fisheries, tourism, and freshwater access. The impacts of external nutrient loading from anthropogenic sources are well documented; however, blooms have been observed to occur in even remote lakes. Climate change is a hypothesized driver of these recent algal bloom trends, such as increasing global air temperatures, water temperatures, lake ice loss, precipitation intensity, and drought. Past research on the impact of climatic drivers on algal biomass dynamics has often been limited to lab, mesocosm, or short termed observations, due to limited in situ data. New remote sensing data products make use of historic multispectral satellite image archives to provide greater spatial and temporal coverage of algal biomass concentrations, allowing for longer time series observational studies to be conducted over large areas. Using data provided by the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Lakes project (product version 2.0.0), daily chlorophyll-a (chl-a; proxy of algal biomass), Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT) and Lake Ice Cover (LIC) from 2002 to 2020 were derived from five North American Great Lakes: Great Bear Lake (GBL), Great Slave Lake (GSL), Lake Athabasca (LA), Lake Winnipeg (LW), and Lake Erie (LE). Additional atmospheric and lake physical variables were provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5-Land data as part of the ERA5 climate reanalysis product including: 2-m air temperature (T2m), Total Precipitation (PPT), Surface Net Solar Radiation (SNSR), Surface Runoff (SR) and Subsurface Runoff (SSR), Wind Speed (WS) and Lake Mix-Layer Depth (LMLD). Such data products allow for comprehensive time series analysis on the interaction effects of atmospheric and lake physical parameters on algal biomass dynamics. Winter temperatures exhibit the highest rate of change relative to other seasons, where LIC loss is important for Northern hemisphere lakes; however, its effect on algal biomass dynamics is relatively unknown. To investigate how LIC duration alters algal biomass in North American Great Lakes, annual and seasonal algal biomass, LSWT and LIC parameters were calculated for the five study lakes using ESA CCI Lakes data. Algal biomasses (β = 0.01 – 0.75 μg L-1 yr-1) and LSWT (β = 0.03 – 0.14 K yr-1) were found to increase, with a general decrease in LIC (β = -0.88 – -1.08 Days yr-1) from 2002 to 2020. Vector autoregressions (VARs) showed that in Northern Lakes (NL; GBL, GSL and LA), LSWT and LIC parameters provide greater explanatory power for annual/seasonal chl-a concentrations (median adj. r2 = 0.75) compared to Southern Lakes (median adj. r2 = 0.46). Additionally, LIC parameters were found to provide higher explanatory power for NLs during the spring season compared to LSWT. However, higher explanatory power does not indicate predictive capacity, where machine learning methods may provide stronger predictive models. To determine if LIC may act as a predictor of algal biomass parameters, multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) were constructed using per-pixel observations of annual/seasonal algal biomass, LSWT, and LIC parameters. Irrespective of season, LSWT only models returned lower prediction error (median NRMSE = 0.82) compared to LIC only models (median NRMSE = 0.93). However, models consisting of both LIC and LSWT returned the lowest predictive error (median NRMSE = 0.75). While LIC did not act as a strong predictor of algal biomass, a random forest (RF) classifier was used to determine whether LIC could classify the presence of lake-specific anomalies in chl-a concentrations. The RF model found that LIC parameters (ice on/off) had the highest mean accuracy decrease on average for NLs during the spring season. LIC timings are changing, where it was found to have greater importance on springtime abnormal algal biomass growth in NLs. While LIC was important at this time compared to LSWT, the impact of other important atmospheric and lake physical variables on algal biomass dynamics are not well understood, particularly at a smaller temporal scale (i.e., daily). To assess the potential interaction effects between algal biomass, atmospheric, and lake physical parameters, a network analysis was conducted using a High Order Dynamic Gaussian Bayesian Network (HO-DGBN) for the original time series, the stationary, non-stationary, and residual signals at varying temporal ranges (Δ: daily, three days, weekly, biweekly, and monthly averages). It was found that LSWT, T2m and SNSR were the most important parameters on average, where LSWT exhibited the highest importance on the daily scale compared to the monthly. Additionally, LMLD returned increased importance at longer temporal frequencies, while SSR returned increased importance at shorter temporal frequencies. Temperature interactions were mixed, typically returning both positive and negative interactions, while SNSR typically exhibited a positive interaction with chl-a, while LMLD exhibited a frequent negative interaction. PPT and WS were found to be the least important parameters in all study lakes. This thesis provides some of the first analytical uses of the ESA CCI Lakes product; a product that undergoes regular updates (every two years or so) as new satellite and in situ data become available, and algorithms for the retrieval of chl-a, LSWT and LIC are being improved. As such, improvements are expected in future releases of the product, limiting the accuracy of some findings in the thesis. Of the data presented, there is evidence that LIC is a significant contributor to spring algal biomass dynamics for NLs; however, Southern Lakes (SL; LW and LE) exhibit more complex interactions, likely due to anthropogenic impacts. This thesis identifies the complexity of LSWT interactions with algal biomass and identifies LMLD as a predominantly negative effect in the development of algal biomass. Algal biomasses are increasing, where increases in LSWT yield higher algal biomass peaks (at varying times throughout the year) within the study lakes. Future climate scenarios may provide conditions favorable for algal biomass growth, where Northern landscapes are at the greatest risk.

GWF-Paradigm Shift in Downscaling Climate Model Projections|

Groundwater plays a vital role in the hydrologic cycle as it is the largest component of available freshwater. Therefore, diagnosing and predicting hydrologic changes and water futures in Cold Regions will have to account for groundwater. Hydrologic models play an important role in this process. There is a wide spectrum of models of varying complexities available to simulate surface water/groundwater flow and transport. The various users of such models question what level of complexities need to be considered within these different models to achieve project objectives. Currently, there are no clear guidelines or criteria to assist users in selecting appropriate hydrologic models for a specific application. Hydrological models range from lumped parameter models to spatially distributed models to discretize the watershed and represent key hydrologic processes. The main objective of this project is to examine the significance of shallow/deep groundwater flow in both unsaturated and saturated zones on surface water flow predictions through high-resolution numerical simulations with HydroGeoSphere (HGS) (Aquanty Inc, 2021), a 3D physics-based, fully-integrated hydrologic model. The spatial and temporal variations in surface water and groundwater fluxes including its distributions are investigated using data from the well-instrumented Alder Creek Watershed (ACW) (~79 km2) within the Grand River Basin in southern Ontario. In particular, five integrated hydrologic models with an increasing level of complexity to represent the subsurface using HGS have been developed to highlight the significance of groundwater fluxes on surface water flow through: 1) a (2-D) model incorporating only overland flow data without considering the subsurface; 2) a model with a thin soil layer (1-meter deep); 3) a 7-layer model with a shallow subsurface consisting of heterogeneous and anisotropic hydraulic parameters; 4) a 10-layer model with a deeper subsurface consisting of homogeneous and uniform hydraulic parameters; and 5) a 10-layer model with detailed subsurface information on hydrostratigraphy consisting of heterogeneous and anisotropic hydraulic parameters. In addition, Raven (Craig et al., 2020) an object-oriented hydrological model based on hydrological response units (HRUs) is constructed based on individual modules corresponding to specific hydrological processes. The five HGS models and the Raven model all share the same high-resolution topography information, landcover representation, temporal precipitation records, and evapotranspiration data. Forward simulation results of a three-year hydrological cycle with the HGS and Raven models are qualitatively and quantitatively compared. Results reveal that models that treat the subsurface more accurately lead to improved predictions of surface water distribution and hydrographs.

Rajan I., Persaud, B., Adams, H., Ye, J., Slowinski, S., Kheyrollah Pour, H., & Van Cappellen, P. (May, 2021), Assessment of Remote-sensed Chlorophyll-a dataset from ESA Lakes Climate Change Initiative Project. Global Water Futures Annual Science Meeting 2021. (Poster presentation)

Assessment of Remote-sensed Chlorophyll-a dataset from ESA Lakes Climate Change Initiative Project

Snowmelt is a major driver of the hydrological cycle in cold regions, as such, its accurate representation in hydrological models is key to both regional snow depth and streamflow prediction. The choice of a proper method for snowmelt representation is often improvised; however, a thorough characterization of uncertainty in such process representations particularly in the context of climate change has remained essential. To fill this gap, this study revisits and characterizes performance and uncertainty around the two general approaches to snowmelt representation, namely Energy-Balance Modules (EBMs) and Temperature-Index Modules (TIMs). To account for snow depth simulation and projection, two common Snow Density formulations (SNDs) are implemented that map snow water equivalent (SWE) to snow depth. The major research questions we address are two-fold. First, we examine the dominant controls of uncertainty in snow depth and streamflow simulations across scales and in different climates. Second, we evaluate the cascade of uncertainty of snow depth projections resulting from impact model parameters, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate models and their internal variability, and downscaling processes. We enable the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) by coupling EBM, TIM, and two SND modules for examination of different snowmelt representation methods, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) for uncertainty decomposition and attribution. These analyses are implemented in mountainous, foothill, and plain regions in a large snow-dominated watershed in western Canada. Results show, rather counter-intuitively, that the choice of SND is a major control of performance and uncertainty of snow depth simulation rather than the choice between TIMs and EBMs and of their uncertain parameters. Also, analysis of streamflow simulations suggest that EBMs generally overestimate streamflow on main tributaries. Finally, uncertainty decompositions show that parameter uncertainty related to snowmelt modules dominantly controls uncertainty in future snow depth projections under climate change, particularly in mountainous regions. However, in plain regions, the uncertainty contribution of model parameters becomes more variable with time and less dominant compared with the other sources of uncertainty. Overall, it is shown that the hydro-climatic and topographic conditions of different regions, as well as input data availability, have considerable effect on reproduction of snow depth, snowmelt and resulting streamflow, and on the share of different uncertainty sources when projecting regional snow depth.

Zaremehrjardy, M., Razavi, S., & Faramarzi, M. (2020). Assessment of the cascade of uncertainty in future snow depth projections across watersheds of mountainous, foothill, and plain areas in northern latitudes. Journal of Hydrology, 125735. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125735

Assessment of the cascade of uncertainty in future snow depth projections across watersheds of mountainous, foothill, and plain areas in northern latitudes

It is directly aligned with the "Knowledge to Action" theme of the meeting, and also directly aligned with the Climate Related Precipitation Extremes project

User stories are informal, non-technical descriptions of features from a user's perspective that guide collaboration and iterative development in Agile projects. However, ambiguities in user stories can lead to miscommunication among stakeholders. Design models, such as UML sequence diagrams, are essential for enhancing communication, clarifying system behavior, and improving the development process. This paper presents an automated approach for generating behavioral models specifically sequence diagrams from natural language requirements expressed as user stories. We also investigate the effectiveness of a Large Language Model (LLM) in using generative AI for this task. By applying our approach and ChatGPT to two benchmark datasets with the same set of user stories, we generated corresponding sequence diagrams for comparison. Expert evaluations in Software Engineering reveal that our approach effectively produces relevant, simplified diagrams for straightforward user stories, whereas the LLM tends to create more complex diagrams that sometimes go beyond the simplicity of the original user stories.

4th year capstone project report, Mechanical department, University of Waterloo, April

Avian research and elevation gradients have been studied extensively in the last century but there is a lack of understanding of the patterns and underlying mechanisms that drive avian species richness in mountain peatlands. This project examined the richness-elevation pattern and possible underlying mechanisms driving this pattern and the accuracy of avian species richness observed when collecting richness estimates from ARUs. Avian species richness was recorded using ARUs at 24 mountain peatland sites in the Upper Bow Basin for one hour during the dawn chorus on four days spread out between May 22nd and June 12th during the breeding season. Avian species richness in mountain peatlands displayed a plateauing pattern, cubic model, much like the plateauing patterns described by McCain in 2009 and it was determined that this pattern was a result of the effect of area on richness and the effect of Natural Subregion, a proxy variable for climate, temperature, soil and vegetation community, on richness. Also, the methods chosen to survey avian species richness provided accurate estimates of avian species richness but to get accurate estimates each survey required a larger survey effort than suggested by the literature.

noproject,accepted

Watershed urbanization profoundly alters the hydrologic characteristics of urban rivers compared to their rural counterparts. This change in hydrologic conditions in combination with alterations to the sediment supply regime in urban watersheds leads to adjustments to channel form and the widespread degradation of urban rivers. Urban river management increasingly attempts to balance the societal needs of flood and erosion control, while simultaneously improving the ecological health or waterways. Two common types of river management include stormwater management (SWM), which focuses on the attenuation of urban floods, and in-stream restoration, which attempts to reconstruct stable and ecologically favourable channels. However, current urban river management designs lack consideration of the key process responsible for channel stability and habitat availability: bedload sediment transport. Two reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of bedload sediment data in urban watersheds and the consequent gap in understanding of the bedload transport dynamics of urban rivers. Consequently, the degradation of urban rivers persists. This project investigates bedload transport dynamics in urban rivers with different management scenarios to focus on four themes: (1) how urbanization affects bedload transport dynamics and its relationship to channel morphology, (2) how to best predict bedload transport dynamics in urban rivers, (3) how current urban river management strategies change the transport dynamics of rivers, and (4) how to improve bedload sediment monitoring technology. This project focuses on the grain-scale bedload transport dynamics of coarse material because it links to the morphodynamics and ecological processes of channels, it provides insights on the exact controls and spatial variability of bedload transport, and the responses to individual flood events can be directly measured. The overarching goal of this study is to contribute to improved urban river management strategies that focus on adaptive management and interdisciplinary approaches. Bedload sediment transport was monitored using RFID tracer stones in three streams with different hydrologic settings: rural, urban with no SWM, and urban with SWM. High-resolution water level data confirmed the hydrologic differences expected from the three watershed conditions, as well as channel enlargement characteristic of urban rivers. Results demonstrate that the morphologic differences between the study streams can be linked to changes in the grain-scale bedload transport dynamics of the streams. Bedload transport is accelerated in the urban stream due to an increase in the frequency of bedload mobilization, particularly of coarse sediment sizes. In contrast, SWM hasdecreased the bedload transport to an immobile and armoured state indicative of a competence-limit transport regime. Results are used to make recommendations for improved urban river management. Results from the bedload tracking were used to build predictive models of tracer displacements. A new variable that captures both the mobility and travel length of bed particles is introduced. Several flow metrics developed in the literature in rural and laboratory settings are calculated, and their ability to predict tracer displacements in the three streams is tested. Scaling tracer travel lengths by mean channel width collapses the data into a single, strong relationship with cumulative energy expenditure, providing a single model that can be used across systems with different watershed conditions. To assess the impact of an in-stream riffle-pool channel reconstruction on bedload sediment dynamics, bedload transport and morphologic change was monitored in adjacent unrestored and restored reaches of an urban channel. Results reveal that the restored reach is stable and self- maintaining, mirroring bedform maintenance processes in natural riffle-pool streams. However, the construction is more successful at slowing down the transport of coarse sediment more than fine sediment, leading to a coarse sediment discontinuity that may be contributing to accelerated channel adjustment beyond the limits of the constructed riffle-pool sequences. This project highlights the importance of considering the entire channel corridor when designing and monitoring restoration projects. A large limitation of bedload sediment tracking technology is the inability to determine the vertical position of tracers, which hinders the ability to study vertical mixing and translate tracer data into bedload transport rates. A new Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) bedload tracer stone is presented, along with results of laboratory performance tests. This new bedload tracer improves upon existing bedload sediment monitoring technology by providing the ability to measure the burial depth of tracers without disturbing the bed. An important contribution of this study is the extensive dataset of bedload transport collected in urban rivers. This study attempts to move away from descriptive differences in the characteristics of urban rivers compared to rural streams, and towards a process-level understanding of the anthropogenic effects on river systems. Grain-scale bedload transport theory, developed in rural and laboratory settings, is applied to urban settings to gain insights into the effects of urbanization and common river management strategies on the geomorphic processes of urban rivers. Recommendations for improved urban river management are developed from the results of this thesis.

Beyond the Mass Balance: A Process Based Approach to Modelling Legacy Phosphorus Dynamics

Basu, N. and Van Meter, K.J. (2019). Beyond the Mass Balance: A Process Based Approach to Modelling Legacy Phosphorus Dynamics. Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography Conference, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Feb 2019. Conference Presentation

Beyond the Mass Balance: A Process Based Approach to Modelling Legacy Phosphorus Dynamics

Basu, N.B., Van Meter, K.J., and Van Cappellen, P. (2018). Beyond the Mass Balance: Modeling Legacy Phosphorus Dynamics in a Great Lakes Watershed, American Geophysical Union 2018, Fall Meeting, Washington DC, USA Conference Presentation

Beyond the Mass Balance: Modeling Legacy Phosphorus Dynamics in a Great Lakes Watershed

Basu, N. B., Van Meter, K. J., & Van Cappellen, P. (2018). Beyond the Mass Balance: Modeling Legacy Phosphorus Dynamics in a Great Lakes Watershed, American Geophysical Union 2018, Fall Meeting, Washington DC, USA Conference Presentation

Beyond the Mass Balance: Modeling Legacy Phosphorus Dynamics in a Great Lakes Watershed

Beyond the mass balance: Modelling time lags in Watershed Response due to Legacy Nutrients

High-resolution precipitation and temperature projections are indispensable for informed decision-making, risk assessment, and planning. Here, we have developed an extensive database (SPQM-CMIP6-CAN) of high-resolution (0.1°) precipitation and temperature projections extending till 2100 at a daily scale for Canada. We employed a novel Semi-Parametric Quantile Mapping (SPQM) methodology to bias-correct the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase-6 (CMIP6) projections for four Shared Socio-economic Pathways. SPQM is simple, yet robust, in reproducing the observed marginal properties, trends, and variability according to future scenarios, while maintaining a smooth transition from observations to projected simulations. The SPQM-CMIP6-CAN database encompasses 693 simulations derived from 34 diverse climate models for precipitation. Similarly, for temperature projections, our database comprises 581 simulations from 27 climate models. These projections are valuable for hydrological, environmental, and ecological studies, offering a comprehensive resource for analyses within these domains. Furthermore, these projections serve as a vital tool for the quantification of uncertainties arising from climate models, their variant configurations, and future scenarios.

GWF-Paradigm Shift in Downscaling Climate Model Projections|

Bias-corrected high-resolution temperature and precipitation projections for Canada

Annual maxima of daily precipitation are widely used to design critical infrastructures such as dams and stormwater networks. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate model projections offer a glimpse into the future and can help assess potential changes and impacts. It is reasonable to assume that climate models simulating accurately the historical climate may also simulate well the future. Here, we assessed the latest generation of climate models, that is the CMIP6 models, to reproduce the historical annual maximum daily precipitation. We compared simulations and observations of extreme precipitation using advanced summary statistics, novel probability similarity measures, and robust statistical tests. The results indicate that models, in general, reproduce well the behavior of annual maximum precipitation, but biases exist especially in the simultaneous behavior of mean and variance. Shortcomings of CMIP6 models are highlighted in the Arctic, Tropics, arid, and semi-arid regions.

The Pan-Third Pole includes the Tibetan Plateau and the northern intracontinental arid region of Asia, extending to the Caucasus Mountains in the west and the western Loess Plateau in the east. This region covers 20 million square kilometers and affects the environment inhabited by three billion people. Two special projects have been implemented to provide important scientific support for eco-environmental refining and sustainable economic and social development of the Pan-Third Pole region, with the Tibetan Plateau as its core: the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition Program (a national special project) and the Pan-Third Pole Environmental Change and Construction of the Green Silk Road (hereinafter referred to as the Silk Road and Environment), a strategic pilot science and technology project (Category A) of the Chinese Academy of Science. The Pan-Third Pole big data system is an important data support platform for these two major research programs and has several purposes: the storage, management, analysis, mining and sharing of scientific data for various disciplines, such as resources, the environment, ecology and atmospheric science of the Pan-Third Pole; preparation of key scientific data products of the Pan-Third Pole; the gradual development of functions such as online big data analysis and model application; the construction of a cloud-based platform to integrate data, methods, models; and services for Pan-Third Pole research and promote application of big data technology in scientific research in the region. This paper demonstrates in detail various aspects of the Pan-Third Pole big data system, including the system architecture, data resource integration and big data analysis methods. The system improves big data processing capability in geoscience, serves as a new paradigm of geoscience research driven by big data and facilitates scientific research of the Earth system of the Pan-Third Pole.

The dynamics and processes of nutrient cycling and release were examined for a lowland wetland-pond system, draining woodland in southern England. Hydrochemical and meteorological data were analyzed from 1997 to 2017, along with high-resolution in situ sensor measurements from 2016 to 2017. The results showed that even a relatively pristine wetland can become a source of highly bioavailable phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), and silicon (Si) during low-flow periods of high ecological sensitivity. The drivers of nutrient release were primary production and accumulation of biomass, which provided a carbon (C) source for microbial respiration and, via mineralization, a source of bioavailable nutrients for P and N co-limited microorganisms. During high-intensity nutrient release events, the dominant N-cycling process switched from denitrification to nitrate ammonification, and a positive feedback cycle of P and N release was sustained over several months during summer and fall. Temperature controls on microbial activity were the primary drivers of short-term (day-to-day) variability in P release, with subdaily (diurnal) fluctuations in P concentrations driven by water body metabolism. Interannual relationships between nutrient release and climate variables indicated “memory” effects of antecedent climate drivers through accumulated legacy organic matter from the previous year's biomass production. Natural flood management initiatives promote the use of wetlands as “nature-based solutions” in climate change adaptation, flood management, and soil and water conservation. This study highlights potential water quality trade-offs and shows how the convergence of climate and biogeochemical drivers of wetland nutrient release can amplify background nutrient signals by mobilizing legacy nutrients, causing water quality impairment and accelerating eutrophication risk.

Polyfluoroalkyl substances and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a family of anthropogenic chemicals that are used in food packaging, waterproof clothing, and firefighting foams for their water and oil resistant properties. Though levels of some PFAS appear to be decreasing in Canada's south, environmental levels have been increasing in the Arctic due to long-range transport. However, the implications of this on human exposures in sub-Arctic and Arctic populations in Canada have yet to be established. To address this data gap, human biomonitoring research was completed in Old Crow, Yukon, and the Dehcho region, Northwest Territories. Blood samples were collected from adults residing in seven northern First Nations and were analyzed by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. A total of nine PFAS were quantified: perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulphonic acid (PFOS), perfluorohexane sulphonic acid (PFHxS), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA), and perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUdA), perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA), perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA), and perfluorobutane sulphonic acid (PFBS). In the Dehcho (n = 124), five PFAS had a detection rate greater than 50% including PFOS, PFOA, PFHxS, PFNA, and PFDA. In addition to these PFAS, PFUdA was also detected in at least half of the samples collected in Old Crow (n = 54). Generally, male participants had higher concentrations of PFAS compared to female participants, and PFAS concentrations tended to increase with age. For most PFAS, Old Crow and Dehcho levels were similar or lower to those measured in the general Canadian population (as measured through the Canadian Health Measures Survey or CHMS) and other First Nations populations in Canada (as measured through the First Nations Biomonitoring Initiative or FNBI). The key exception to this was for PFNA which, relative to the CHMS (0.51 μg/L), was approximately 1.8 times higher in Old Crow (0.94 μg/L) and 2.8 times higher in Dehcho (1.42 μg/L) than observed in the general Canadian population. This project provides baseline PFAS levels for participating communities, improving understanding of human exposures to PFAS in Canada. Future research should investigate site-specific PFNA exposure sources and monitor temporal trends in these regions.

Key message Black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) has historically self-replaced following wildfire, but recent evidence suggests that this is changing. One factor could be negative impacts of intensifying fire activity on black spruce seed rain. We investigated this by measuring black spruce seed rain and seedling establishment. Our results suggest that increases in fire activity could reduce seed rain meaning reductions in black spruce establishment. Context Black spruce is an important conifer in boreal North America that develops a semi-serotinous, aerial seedbank and releases a pulse of seeds after fire. Variation in postfire seed rain has important consequences for black spruce regeneration and stand composition. Aims We explore the possible effects of changes in fire regime on the abundance and viability of black spruce seeds following a very large wildfire season in the Northwest Territories, Canada (NWT). Methods We measured postfire seed rain over 2 years at 25 black spruce-dominated sites and evaluated drivers of stand characteristics and environmental conditions on total black spruce seed rain and viability. Results We found a positive relationship between black spruce basal area and total seed rain. However, at high basal areas, this increasing rate of seed rain was not maintained. Viable seed rain was greater in stands that were older, closer to unburned edges, and where canopy combustion was less severe. Finally, we demonstrated positive relationships between seed rain and seedling establishment, confirming our measures of seed rain were key drivers of postfire forest regeneration. Conclusion These results indicate that projected increases in fire activity will reduce levels of black spruce recruitment following fire.

Jain, T., Lui, M., Strickert, G.E.H., and Deters, R. (2019). Blockchain based identity management and enhanced security framework for crowdsourcing water science project. Global Water Futures 2nd Annual Open Science Meeting. Saskatoon Saskatchewan. Conference Poster

Blockchain based identity management and enhanced security framework for crowdsourcing water science project

Flow management has the potential to significantly affect ecosystem condition. Shallow lakes in arid regions are especially susceptible to flow management changes, which can have important implications for the formation of cyanobacterial blooms. Here, we reveal water quality shifts associated with changing source water inflow management. Using in situ monitoring data, we studied a seven-year time span during which inflows to a shallow, eutrophic drinking water reservoir transitioned from primarily natural landscape runoff (2014–2015) to managed flows from a larger upstream reservoir (Lake Diefenbaker; 2016–2020) and identified significant changes in cyanobacteria (as phycocyanin) using generalized additive models to classify cyanobacterial bloom formation. We then connected changes in water source with shifts in chemistry and the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms using principal components analysis. Phycocyanin was greater in years with managed reservoir inflow from a mesotrophic upstream reservoir (2016–2020), but dissolved organic matter (DOM) and specific conductivity, important determinants of drinking water quality, were greatest in years when landscape runoff dominated lake water source (2014–2015). Most notably, despite changing rapidly, it took multiple years for lake water to return to a consistent and reduced level of DOM after managed inflows from the upstream reservoir were resumed, an observation that underscores how resilience may be hindered by weak resistance to change and slow recovery. Environmental flows for water quality are rarely defined, yet we show that trade-offs exist between poor water quality via elevated conductivity and DOM and higher bloom risk, depending on water source. Our work highlights the importance of source water quality, not just quantity, to water security, and our findings have important implications for water managers who must protect ecosystem services while adapting to projected hydroclimatic change.

Climate change and extreme weather events affect hydrology and water resources in catchments worldwide. This study analysed Blue Water (BW) and Green Water (GW) scarcity in the McKenzie Creek watershed in Ontario, Canada, and explored how changes in temperature and precipitation may impact water scarcity dynamics. The McKenzie Creek is the main water source for agricultural activities for the Six Nations of the Grand River reserve (the largest Indigenous community in Canada) and other non-Indigenous communities in the watershed. Data from the water use surveys and streamflow simulations performed using the Coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow Model (GSFLOW) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, representing moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming, respectively, were used to calculate BW and GW scarcity. Study results showed that BW scarcity may increase to 'moderate' levels if water users extract the maximum permitted water withdrawal allocation. This level of scarcity has the potential to cause ecological degradation and water quality issues in the watershed. GW scarcity will steadily increase throughout the 21st century due to climate warming with the western portion of the McKenzie Creek watershed projected to experience slightly higher levels of GW scarcity. This may cause users to withdraw more water resources, thereby decreasing BW available for downstream communities, including the Six Nations of the Grand River. This study provides water resource managers and regional planners with important information about potential challenges facing the watershed due to increased water use and changing climate conditions.

Peatland ecosystems are important as natural climate regulators for their capacity to store carbon over long-time scales. Carbon cycling in peatlands in the boreal ecozone of Canada has been more widely studied than the boreal shield of Ontario, where peat depths are thinner and peatlands spatially smaller. The reliance on fill and spill hydrologic connectivity makes the water table dynamics of peatlands in Ontario’s Eastern Georgian Bay (EGB) region of the Ontario shield ecozone sensitive to rain and drought periods. The drying of wetlands in the EGB region decreases moss productivity and increases the ecosystem’s vulnerability to wildfire through an increase in the water table depth. In an effort to understand how peatlands respond to interannual climate variability and wildfire, we examined the role of regional climate patterns on growing season CO2 exchange from an Ontario shield peatland and completed a post-wildfire assessment of CO2 exchange patterns in a recently burned peatland for the first and second year post-wildfire. Using the eddy covariance technique, we analyzed 5-years of growing season CO2 exchange data from 2016 to 2020 from an unburned peatland and 2-years of growing season CO2 exchange data from a burned peatland (2019-2020) in EGB. Plot-scale CO2 exchange measurements were also completed within the burned peatland jointly with abiotic variables and vegetation community surveys. Water table depth was identified as an important variable to explain total summer CO2 uptake (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE), where years of considerable rainfall maintained a water table near the peat surface and perpetuated high vegetation productivity. Summer total ecosystem respiration (ER) was greatly influenced by preceding winter and spring air temperature, with warmer winter air temperatures leading to summers of increased total ER. Warmer winter air temperatures also initiated water flow across the landscape, thus reviving plant and microbial activity following snow cover. These findings have important implications for the function of these shallow Ontario shield peatlands in a warming climate, where decreased water availability with projected increased temperatures and evapotranspiration leaves peatlands at risk of a net loss of C over the summer with lower water table. In the burned landscape, there was lower GPP in the summer (2019) compared to the wet summer of 2020, however the burned landscape continued to act as a net CO2 sink for the summer season of both years. The rapid recovery of vegetation across the wildfire-disturbed landscape has important implications for the function of these peatlands over time, with the ability for continued carbon uptake and reinstating peat accumulation processes.

The Global Water Futures program (GWF) was granted $77.8 million by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund to conduct research on the forecasting and management of water futures in Canada as part of an effort to combat projected risks associated with global climate change. The production of scientific knowledge is a clear objective of the GWF program, and the evaluation and enumeration of research outcomes is a key metric. The goal of this work is to create a comprehensive bibliographic analysis of research outputs across the full extent of the GWF program including metadata such as the title, author, publication date and geographic locations of the works. Processes to incorporate quality control, classification and validation were documented to ensure these outputs are effectively managed, monitored and evaluated. Links to the resources are also made available to ensure they are easily accessible to a wide range of audiences. Enhanced accessibility is key in sharing critical climate change research and expanding international understanding of climate-water issues. The review and evaluation of existing procedures for research output reporting provided insight to propose improved processes to increase efficiency and accuracy. By establishing a consistent organizational tool for all forms of research outputs, opportunities are created for future widespread information sharing and global collaboration. Analysis of annual reports generated by 65 projects across for main partner universities (University of Saskatchewan, University of Waterloo, McMaster University, and Wilfrid Laurier University) listed 4,708 total outputs between 2017 and 2022. Conference presentations, refereed publications, and data publications constitute most of this total, accounting for 48%, 26%, and 10% of overall outputs, respectively. Other products, including non-refereed articles, model code, and book chapters, each make up less than 3% of total GWF reported outputs. By looking at the distribution of each output type annually, we were able to examine the impact of global circumstances such as COVID-19 on total output production over a significant period. Understanding the effects of large-scale events on project development and management are critical for future adaptation in water research that will enhance research opportunities and their subsequent data findings.

A co-creation framework was developed for non-Indigenous scientists and engineers aiming to conduct research with Indigenous communities. Developed from pre-existing CBPR and co-creation theories, this guide incorporated the personal experiences of two master's students working on this project. As Indigenous communities and individuals are not monoliths, the first draft of this framework was devised to be expanded for use with various other groups allowing researchers to apply relevant concepts specific to their projects. The co-creation framework was developed and executed by conducting an initial water quality analysis of drinking water from SN. Initiated by Duignan’s 2019 SN health survey feedback, preliminary water parameters were analyzed for select households across the community. Community services and members were instrumental in co-creating this style of data collection and knowledge translation with GWF researchers. Collections methods were primarily adapted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, in which researchers were led initially by community liaisons and taken to households to collect drinking water samples. Instead, homeowners were supported in collecting their own drinking water samples and providing them to community educators from SNHS. Concurrently, further development and application of the framework were established through an interactive video podcast, Ohneganos Let’s Talk Water, employed to conduct, disseminate, and translate relevant community research. The community-centred methodology met the target audience where they were, on social media, rather than expecting them to decipher conventional WS science dissemination methods such as academic conferences or peer-reviewed papers. International and transdisciplinary collaboration was explored between Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth, students, experts, artists and community members. This multifaceted, award-winning show was the first to combine these various elements. A mixed methods approach via digital story was produced to illustrate the impact of LTW. While an extensive variety of guests and topics were discussed in the four seasons of the podcast, the digital story highlights those most closely aligned with the work of this thesis, decolonizing western science research and dissemination.

Forward The dynamic nature of water science data—in which approaches to observation, modelling, and prediction of Earth systems are continuously evolving—shape our present data and re-shape our legacy data through a cycle of repeated reanalysis with improved or emerging technologies (e.g., UAVs with new sensors, new models, adoption of machine learning /artificial intelligence). Such repeated interactions with well-managed data—past and present—leads to improved data, new discoveries, and a sustainable process of iterative refinement of knowledge and research questions. This process inevitably results in future data which will become tomorrow’s important legacy. Global Water Futures Observatories (GWFO) is thus steadfastly committed to the long-term stewardship of its open data and, to this end, has devised a new template-based form of data catalogue, GWFNet, capable of incorporating legacy data and future data of a to-be-determined form as readily as it handles data from the present day. GWFNet's ultimate purpose and vision is to enable a variety of information seekers—from the general public to highly specialized scientists—to easily zero in on trails of information and obtain publications, datasets, real-time data sources, and other related information that delivers context to the results associated with their searches (including basins, observatories, research sites, stations, model inventories, software, equipment, principal investigators, programme/project associations, and more).

Telford, J. V., Kay, M. L., Vander Heide, H., Wiklund, J. A., Owca, T. J., Faber, J. A., Wolfe, B. B., and Hall, R. I. (2021). Building upon open-barrel corer and sectioning systems to foster the continuing legacy of John Glew, Journal of Paleolimnology, 65, 271-277, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-020-00162-w

Building upon open-barrel corer and sectioning systems to foster the continuing legacy of John Glew

Drought projections on seasonal to annual time scales are presented for Canada over the twenty-first century, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Results make use of bias-corrected temperature and precipitation projections from 29 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and include three different forcing scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Large differences in projected drought changes are observed among different regions. On the annual time scale, southwestern Canada and the Prairies may experience an increase in drying under a warmer climate. On the other hand, coastal regions, including northern Canada, the northwest Pacific coast and the Atlantic region, show a small increase in wetness. Winter and spring SPEI results depict an increase in wetting, reflecting the projected country-wide winter and spring precipitation increases under climate change. For the most part, autumn and summer show increases in drying. The largest relative changes in both summer drying and winter wetting were found over northern regions, but the offsetting seasonal effects typically balance out to yield various degrees of wetting on the annual scale for this region. The projected drought responses are relatively modest in the weak forcing scenario (RCP2.6) for most Canadian regions. In addition, even for regions most affected, a marked increase in surface water deficit might not occur until the second half of this century. Inter-model variation (a crude measure of projection uncertainty) typically increases with forcing intensity and lead time, and is generally greater in northern and western Canada. Abstrait Les prévisions de sécheresse au cours du vingt-et-unième siècle sont présentées pour le Canada sur des échelles saisonnières à annuelles, en fonction de l’indice normalisé de précipitations et d’évapotranspiration (SPEI). Les résultats sont fondés sur les prévisions de température et de précipitations à biais corrigé de 29 modèles climatiques mondiaux participant à la phase 5 du projet d’intercomparaison des modèles couplés (CMIP5), et comprennent trois scénarios de forçage différents (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 et RCP8.5). De grandes différences dans les changements prévus en matière de sécheresse sont observées entre les diverses régions. Sur l’échelle annuelle, le sud-ouest du Canada et les Prairies pourraient connaître une augmentation des conditions sèches sous un climat plus chaud. Par contre, les régions côtières, y compris le nord du Canada, la côte nord-ouest du Pacifique et la région de l’Atlantique, montrent une légère augmentation des conditions humides. Les résultats de l’hiver et du printemps du SPEI montrent une augmentation des conditions humides, ce qui reflète l’augmentation prévue des précipitations hivernales et printanières à l’échelle du pays en raison des changements climatiques. Dans l’ensemble, l’automne et l’été montrent une augmentation des conditions de sécheresse. Les changements relatifs les plus importants dans les conditions sèches estivales et les conditions humides hivernales ont été observés dans les régions nordiques, mais les effets saisonniers compensatoires s’équilibrent habituellement pour produire divers degrés de précipitations à l’échelle annuelle pour cette région. Les réponses prévues à la sécheresse sont relativement modestes dans le scénario de forçage le plus faible (RCP2.6) pour la plupart des régions canadiennes. En outre, même pour les régions les plus touchées, une augmentation marquée du déficit en eau de surface pourrait ne pas se produire avant la deuxième moitié du présent siècle. La variation entre les modèles (une mesure brute de l’incertitude des prévisions) augmente habituellement avec l’intensité du forçage et le délai, et elle est généralement plus grande dans le nord et l’ouest du Canada.

CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Citizen science initiatives span a wide range of topics, designs, and research needs. Despite this heterogeneity, there are several common barriers to the uptake and sustainability of citizen science projects and the information they generate. One key barrier often cited in the citizen science literature is data quality. Open-source tools for the analysis, visualization, and reporting of citizen science data hold promise for addressing the challenge of data quality, while providing other benefits such as technical capacity-building, increased user engagement, and reinforcing data sovereignty. We developed an operational citizen science tool called the Community Water Data Analysis Tool (CWDAT)—a R/Shiny-based web application designed for community-based water quality monitoring. Surveys and facilitated user-engagement were conducted among stakeholders during the development of CWDAT. Targeted recruitment was used to gather feedback on the initial CWDAT prototype’s interface, features, and potential to support capacity building in the context of community-based water quality monitoring. Fourteen of thirty-two invited individuals (response rate 44%) contributed feedback via a survey or through facilitated interaction with CWDAT, with eight individuals interacting directly with CWDAT. Overall, CWDAT was received favourably. Participants requested updates and modifications such as water quality thresholds and indices that reflected well-known barriers to citizen science initiatives related to data quality assurance and the generation of actionable information. Our findings support calls to engage end-users directly in citizen science tool design and highlight how design can contribute to users’ understanding of data quality. Enhanced citizen participation in water resource stewardship facilitated by tools such as CWDAT may provide greater community engagement and acceptance of water resource management and policy-making.

Traditional food consumption among northern populations is associated with improved nutrition but occasionally can also increase contaminant exposure. High levels of cadmium in the organs of moose from certain regions of the Northwest Territories, Canada, led to the release of consumption notices. These notices recommended that individuals limit their consumption of kidney and liver from moose harvested from the Southern Mackenzie Mountain. A human biomonitoring project was designed to better characterize exposure and risks from contaminants, including cadmium, among Dene/Métis communities of the Northwest Territories Mackenzie Valley, Canada. The project included a dietary assessment (food frequency questionnaire) to estimate moose and caribou organ (kidney and liver) consumption, as well as urine and blood sampling for the measurement of cadmium concentration using mass spectrometry. For a subset of the samples, urine cotinine was also quantified. The results from this biomonitoring research show that cadmium levels in urine (GM = 0.32 μg L−1) and blood (GM = 0.58 μg L−1) are similar to those observed in other populations in Canada. For the 38% of participants reporting eating game organs, current traditional food consumption patterns were not associated with cadmium biomarker levels. Instead, smoking appeared to be the main determinant of cadmium exposure. These results are supporting ongoing efforts at the community and territorial level to identify health priorities and design follow up plans in response to environmental monitoring data.

The global terrestrial water storage (TWS), the most accessible component in the hydrological cycle, is a general indicator of freshwater availability on Earth. The global TWS trend caused by climate change is harder to detect than global mean temperature due to the highly uneven hydrological responses across the globe, the brevity of global freshwater observations, and large noises of internal climate variability. To overcome the climate noise and small sample size of observations, we leverage the vast amount of observed and simulated meteorological fields at daily scales to project global TWS through its fingerprints in weather patterns. The novel method identifies the relationship between annual global mean TWS and daily surface air temperature and humidity fields using multi-model hydrological simulations. We found that globally, approximately 50% of days for most years since 2016 have climate change signals emerged above the noise of internal variability. Climate change signals in global mean TWS have been consistently increasing over the last few decades, and in the future, are expected to emerge from the natural climate variability. Our research indicates the urgency to limit carbon emission to not only avoid risks associated with warming but also sustain water security in the future.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report critically examines, for the first time, the capacity of Canada’s water sector with respect to meeting and helping other countries meet the water-related targets of the UN’s global sustainable development agenda. Several components of this capacity are examined, including water education and research, investment in water projects that Canada makes internally and externally, and experiences in water technology and governance. Analysis of the water education system suggests that there is a broad capability in institutions of higher learning in Canada to offer training in the diverse subject areas important in water. In most cases, however, this has not led to the establishment of specific water study programmes. Only a few universities provide integrated water education. There is a need for a comprehensive listing of water-related educational activities in universities and colleges — a useful resource for potential students and employers. A review of recent Canadian water research directions and highlights reveals strong and diverse water research capacity and placed the country among global leaders in this field. Canada appears to be within the top 10 countries in terms of water research productivity (publications) and research impact (citations). Research capacity has been traditionally strong in the restoration and protection of the lakes, prediction of changes in climate, water and cryosphere (areas where water is in solid forms such as ice and snow), prediction and management of floods and droughts. There is also a range of other strong water research directions. Canada is not among the top 10 global water aid donors in absolute dollar numbers; the forerunners are, as a rule, the countries with higher GDP per capita. Canadian investments in Africa water development were consistently higher over the years than investments in other regions of the global South. The contributions dropped significantly in recent years overall, also with a decline in aid flow to Africa. Given government support for the right business model and access to resources, there is significant capacity within the Canadian water sector to deliver water technology projects with effective sustainable outcomes for the developing world. The report recommends several potential avenues to elevate Canada’s role on the global water stage, i.e. innovative, diverse and specific approaches such as • developing a national inventory of available water professional capacity, and ranking Universities on the strength of their water programmes • coordinating national contributions to global sustainability processes around the largest ever university-led water research programme in the world – the 7-year Global Water Futures program • targeting specific developmental or regional challenges through overseas development aid to achieve quick wins that may require only modest investments • resolving such chronic internal water challenges as water supply and sanitation of First Nations, and illustrating how this can be achieved within a limited period with good will • strengthening and expanding links with UN-Water and other UN organisations involved in global water policy work To improve water management at home, and to promote water Canadian competence abroad, the diverse efforts of the country’s water sector need better coordination. There is a significant role for government at all levels, but especially federally, in this process. Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals, water education, water research, water-related investments, water governance, water technologies, water security

Winter on the prairies is not usually a time to worry about drought and fire. At least, it wasn’t. But large swaths of the country, from B.C. through Ontario, are currently seeing a lack of snow and water accumulation that is “unprecedented in modern times,” according to an expert. “2023 [was] one of the hottest years in Canadian history, depending where you are in the country that year,” says John Pomeroy, hydrologist and professor in the department of Geography and Planning at the University of Saskatchewan. “This was a year that [had] not only a drought, but it was a year that very closely followed the worst-case climate projections for around the year 2100. And so this gives us a taste of what climate change might bring to Canada.” In one B.C. town, the drought is so severe residents are using bottled water. The Alberta government is already making water restriction plans for the spring and summer to come. The conditions will be perfect for a wildfire season that could eclipse last year’s records. And farmers will need to make choices on which crops to keep, and which to let die. Welcome to the new world, where a large chunk of Canada … simply doesn’t have enough water.

noproject,accepted

Cascade of uncertainty in CMIP5 climate projections for scenario-led water resource impact assessments in major river basins of Canada

Cascade of uncertainty in CMIP5 climate projections for scenario-led water resource impact assessments in major river basins of Canada

To support Indigenous communities in preparing for uncertainties such as climate change impacts and unexpected threats to health, there are calls by researchers and community members for decision support tools that meaningfully and sensitively bring together Indigenous contextualized factors such as social dynamics, local- and culture-specific knowledge, and data with academic tools and practices including predictive modeling. This project used a community engaged approach to co-create an agent-based model geographically bounded to a reserve community to examine three community-requested simulations. Community members and researchers co-designed, built, and verified the model simulations: a contaminated water delivery truck; a Pow Wow where a waterborne infectious disease spreads; and a flood which restricts typical movement around the reserve for daily tasks and health care. The simulations’ findings, displayed as both conventional and narrative outputs, revealed management areas where community adaptation and mitigation are needed, including enhancing health service provision in times of disease outbreaks or large community events, and creating back-up plans for overcoming flood impacts to ensure services are accessible for vulnerable members of the community. Recommendations for communities, researchers, and modelers are discussed.

Permafrost thaw/degradation in the Northern Hemisphere due to global warming is projected to accelerate in coming decades. Assessment of this trend requires improved understanding of the evolution and dynamics of permafrost areas. Land surface models (LSMs) are well-suited for this due to their physical basis and large-scale applicability. However, LSM application is challenging because (a) LSMs demand extensive and accurate meteorological forcing data, which are not readily available for historic conditions and only available with significant biases for future climate, (b) LSMs possess a large number of model parameters, and (c) observations of thermal/hydraulic regimes to constrain those parameters are severely limited. This study addresses these challenges by applying the MESH-CLASS modeling framework (Modélisation Environmenntale communautaire—Surface et Hydrology embedding the Canadian Land Surface Scheme) to three regions within the Mackenzie River Basin, Canada, under various meteorological forcing data sets, using the variogram analysis of response surfaces framework for sensitivity analysis and threshold-based identifiability analysis. The study shows that the modeler may face complex trade-offs when choosing a forcing data set; for current and future scenarios, forcing data require multi-variate bias correction, and some data sets enable the representation of some aspects of permafrost dynamics, but are inadequate for others. The results identify the most influential model parameters and show that permafrost simulation is most sensitive to parameters controlling surface insulation and runoff generation. But the identifiability analysis reveals that many of the most influential parameters are unidentifiable. These conclusions can inform future efforts for data collection and model parameterization.

Permafrost plays an important role in the hydrology of arctic/subarctic regions. However, permafrost thaw/degradation has been observed over recent decades in the Northern Hemisphere and is projected to accelerate. Hence, understanding the evolution of permafrost areas is urgently needed. Land surface models (LSMs) are well-suited for predicting permafrost dynamics due to their physical basis and large-scale applicability. However, LSM application is challenging because of the large number of model parameters and the complex memory of state variables. Significant interactions among the underlying processes and the paucity of observations of thermal/hydraulic regimes add further difficulty. This study addresses the challenges of LSM application by evaluating the uncertainty due to meteorological forcing, assessing the sensitivity of simulated permafrost dynamics to LSM parameters, and highlighting issues of parameter identifiability. Modelling experiments are implemented using the MESH-CLASS framework. The VARS sensitivity analysis and traditional threshold-based identifiability analysis are used to assess various aspects of permafrost dynamics for three regions within the Mackenzie River Basin. The study shows that the modeller may face significant trade-offs when choosing a forcing dataset as some datasets enable the representation of some aspects of permafrost dynamics, while being inadequate for others. The results also emphasize the high sensitivity of various aspects of permafrost simulation to parameters controlling surface insulation and soil texture; a detailed list of influential parameters is presented. Identifiability analysis reveals that many of the most influential parameters for permafrost simulation are unidentifiable. These conclusions will hopefully inform future efforts in data collection and model parametrization.

Predictions of floods, droughts, and fast drought-flood transitions are required at different time scales to develop management strategies targeted at minimizing negative societal and economic impacts. Forecasts at daily and seasonal scale are vital for early warning, estimation of event frequency for hydraulic design, and long-term projections for developing adaptation strategies to future conditions. All three types of predictions—forecasts, frequency estimates, and projections—typically treat droughts and floods independently, even though both types of extremes can be studied using related approaches and have similar challenges. In this review, we (a) identify challenges common to drought and flood prediction and their joint assessment and (b) discuss tractable approaches to tackle these challenges. We group challenges related to flood and drought prediction into four interrelated categories: data, process understanding, modeling and prediction, and human–water interactions. Data-related challenges include data availability and event definition. Process-related challenges include the multivariate and spatial characteristics of extremes, non-stationarities, and future changes in extremes. Modeling challenges arise in frequency analysis, stochastic, hydrological, earth system, and hydraulic modeling. Challenges with respect to human–water interactions lie in establishing links to impacts, representing human–water interactions, and science communication. We discuss potential ways of tackling these challenges including exploiting new data sources, studying droughts and floods in a joint framework, studying societal influences and compounding drivers, developing continuous stochastic models or non-stationary models, and obtaining stakeholder feedback. Tackling one or several of these challenges will improve flood and drought predictions and help to minimize the negative impacts of extreme events.

This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C−1. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.

Globally, extreme temperatures have severe impacts on the economy, human health, food and water security, and ecosystems. Mortality rates have been increased due to heatwaves in several regions. Specifically, megacities have high impacts with the increasing temperature and ever-expanding urban areas; it is important to understand extreme temperature changes in terms of duration, magnitude, and frequency for future risk management and disaster mitigation. Here we framed a novel Semi-Parametric quantile mapping method to bias-correct the CMIP6 minimum and maximum temperature projections for 199 megacities worldwide. The changes in maximum and minimum temperature are quantified in terms of climate indices (ETCCDI and HDWI) for the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Cities in northern Asia and northern North America (Kazan, Samara, Heihe, Montréal, Edmonton, and Moscow) are warming at a higher rate compared to the other regions. There is an increasing and decreasing trend for the warm and cold extremes respectively. Heatwaves increase exponentially in the future with the increase in warming, that is, from SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5. Among the CMIP6 models, a huge variability is observed, and this further increases as the warming increases. All climate indices have steep slopes for the far future (2066–2100) compared to the near future (2031–2065). Yet the variability among CMIP6 models in near future is high compared to the far future for cold indices.

With global warming, the behavior of extreme precipitation shifts toward nonstationarity. Here, we analyze the annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP) all over the globe using projections of the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The projections were bias corrected using a semiparametric quantile mapping, a novel technique extended to extreme precipitation. This analysis 1) explores the variability of future AMP globally and 2) investigates the performance of stationary and nonstationary models in describing future AMP with trends. The results show that global warming potentially intensifies AMP. For the nonparametric analysis, the 33-yr precipitation levels are increasing up to 33.2 mm compared to the historical period. The parametric analysis shows that the return period of 100-yr historical events will decrease approximately to 50 and 70 years in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. Under the highest emission scenario, the projected 100-yr levels are expected to increase by 7.5%–21% over the historical levels. Using stationary models to estimate the 100-yr return level for AMP projections with trends leads to an underestimation of 3.4% on average. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments are implemented to explain this underestimation.

Changes of Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Projections: Should We Use Stationary or Nonstationary Models?

Projections of change in high-flow extremes with global warming vary widely among, and within, large midlatitude river basins. The spatial variability of these changes is attributable to multiple causes. One possible and little-studied cause of changes in high-flow extremes is a change in the synchrony of mainstem and tributary streamflow during high-flow extremes at the mainstem-tributary confluence. We examined reconstructed and simulated naturalized daily streamflow at confluences on the Columbia River in western North America, quantifying changes in synchrony in future streamflow projections and estimating the impact of these changes on high-flow extremes. In the Columbia River basin, projected flow regimes across colder tributaries initially diverge with warming as they respond to climate change at different rates, leading to a general decrease in synchrony, and lower high-flow extremes, relative to a scenario with no changes in synchrony. Where future warming is sufficiently large to cause most subbasins upstream from a confluence to transition toward a rain-dominated, warm regime, the decreasing trend in synchrony reverses itself. At one confluence with a major tributary (the Willamette River), where the mainstem and tributary flow regimes are initially very different, warming increases synchrony and, therefore, high-flow magnitudes. These results may be generalizable to the class of large rivers with large contributions to flood risk from the snow (i.e., cold) regime, but that also receive considerable discharge from tributaries that drain warmer basins.

Rupp, D. E., Chegwidden, O. S., Nijssen, B., & Clark, M. P. (2021). Changing River Network Synchrony Modulates Projected Increases in High Flows. Water Resources Research, 57(4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028713

Changing River Network Synchrony Modulates Projected Increases in High Flows

Quinton, W. L., & Baltzer, J. L. (2013b). Changing surface water systems in the discontinuous permafrost zone: implications for streamflow. Cold and Mountain Region Hydrological Systems Under Climate Change: Towards Improved Projections. IAHS Publ, 360, 85-92.

Cold and Mountain Region Hydrological Systems Under Climate Change: Towards Improved Projections. IAHS Publ, 360, 85-92

Water issues in Indigenous communities of “Canada” are rooted in the settler-nation’s history of colonialism. Conventional approaches to water management have failed to provide Indigenous communities with water security and limit Indigenous self-determination. Innovative and community-led approaches to water monitoring and management can help promote Indigenous water governance. The Co-Creation of Indigenous Water Quality Tools (CCIWQT) research project is a Haudenosaunee-led approach to improving water security in Six Nations of the Grand River (Six Nations). In alignment with the needs and priorities of Six Nations and underpinned by Haudenosaunee values, the goal of CCIWQT is to develop a broad range of “tools” that can assist in enhancing the community's control over their water management. These tools are being developed through a novel interpretation of co-creation. For CCIWQT, co-creation works to harmonize Indigenous and Western approaches to science by recognizing and respecting the need for knowledge coexistence without assimilation. This Indigenous-led approach to research may be one feasible way to involve non-Indigenous researchers in a reconciliation-based research process that avoids subsuming Indigenous and Local Knowledge into Western ontologies. This book chapter reflects on various reconciliation efforts that were guided by the Indigenous researchers and community members and pursued by the non-Indigenous natural scientists and engineers. Specific CCIWQT research activities are featured to demonstrate how reconciliation “Calls to Action” were applied in practice, while challenges and recommendations are discussed based on the research team's experience.

The southern Canadian Rockies are prone to extreme precipitation that often leads to high streamflow, deep snowpacks, and avalanche risks. Many of these precipitation events are associated with rain–snow transitions, which are highly variable in time and space due to the complex topography. A warming climate will certainly affect these extremes and the associated rain–snow transitions. The goal of this study is to investigate the characteristics and variability of rain–snow transitions aloft and how they will change in the future. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations were conducted from 2000 to 2013 and these were repeated in a warmer pseudo-global warming (PGW) future. Rain–snow transitions occurred aloft throughout the year over the southern Canadian Rockies, but their elevations and depths were highly variable, especially across the continental divide. In PGW conditions, with future air temperatures up to 4–5°C higher on average over the Canadian Rockies, rain–snow transitions are projected to occur more often throughout the year, except during summer. The near-0°C conditions associated with rain–snow transitions are expected to increase in elevation by more than 500 m, resulting in more rain reaching the surface. Overall, this study illustrates the variability of rain–snow transitions, which often impact the location of the snowline. This study also demonstrates the non-uniform changes under PGW conditions, due in part to differences in the types of weather patterns that generate rain–snow transitions across the region.

noproject,accepted

Over the past three decades, concerns have been raised regarding the potential adverse effects of certain natural and synthetic chemicals that can disrupt the endocrine systems of humans and wildlife. These endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) have been reported to cause developmental and reproductive effects at low concentrations (ng/L) in many vertebrate species, particularly in aquatic organisms such as fish. One of the most prevalent sources of EDCs in aquatic environments is municipal wastewater effluents (MWWEs). This is because conventional wastewater treatment systems are inefficient at removing many of the diverse contaminants present in raw sewage, including EDCs. Although multiple initiatives have been initiated to establish standardized testing and monitoring criteria for EDCs in the environment worldwide, our understanding of the contribution of MWWEs to endocrine disruption in Canadian surface waters is incomplete. Therefore, the main aims of this project were to 1) further our understanding of the contribution of MWWEs to the contamination of freshwater bodies in Canada with EDCs, and to 2) characterize the removal efficiency of EDCs by six wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) across Canada. Specifically, this study explored the presence of EDCs and their potencies in influents and effluents as a function of wastewater treatment level/system, climate/seasonality and population size served by the WWTP using a combination of three in vitro bioassays and targeted chemical analysis. The MVLN, MDAkb2, and H295R Steroidogenesis assays were applied to assess (anti-)estrogenic, (anti-)androgenic and steroidogenesis disrupting potentials, respectively, of extracts of influents and effluents collected throughout the year from the WWTPs of the cities of Saskatoon (SK), Regina (SK), Guelph (ON), Kitchener (ON), Quebec City (QB) and Montreal (QB). In parallel, targeted chemical analysis was performed to determine the presence of selected chemicals with proven or suspected endocrine activities, and results were correlated with bioactivities determined in vitro. Overall, influents showed great androgenic activities regardless of treatment plant while significant estrogenic potentials were only observed in a few cases such as Regina effluent and Montreal influent. With the exception of Montreal, high to moderate treatment efficiencies of WWTPs occurred for the removal of androgens, while low or no removal of substances with estrogenic properties was observed. Significant anti-estrogenic and anti-androgenic potentials were detected in most of the influent and effluent samples, regardless of the treatment level. In general, WWTPs representing less advanced treatment technologies were less efficient at removing certain endocrine active substances. In particular, effluents from the two lagoon-based facilities, Regina and Montreal, had significant remaining estrogenic and androgenic activities, respectively. Furthermore, population size seemed to play an important role regarding EDC removal, with WWTPs serving greater than 500,000 habitants showing decreased removal of compounds with endocrine activities in general. However, given the limited sample size (only two of the cities investigated had populations greater than 500,000 inhabitants) it cannot be determined with certainty whether this decreased removal efficiency was a result of population size or simply insufficient capacities of the WWTPs. Thus, additional studies including more treatment facilities with different treatment levels and larger population sizes should be conducted to determine whether population does significantly affect the removal of EDCs. Furthermore, our original hypothesis that extremely cold temperatures would result in decreased efficiency of EDC removal due to reduced biological activity and light exposure was not always supported by the results. Samples collected during the spring season had the highest endocrine activities overall, which could potentially be a result of colder months. However, neither early nor late winter samples showed a comparable effect on removal efficiency. The observation that spring samples had the greatest endocrine activities may be of significant ecological concern as this season coincides with the spawning season of many fishes. This concern was further corroborated by two parallel studies that investigated the impacts of MWWEs collected from the Regina and Saskatoon WWTPs on fish. These studies observed general inhibition of reproductive functions such as delayed maturation, degeneration of gonadal tissues, reduction in the expression of secondary sex characteristics, and significant reduction of fecundity in fathead minnows exposed to both diluted effluents or that were collected downstream of the WWTP outflow of Regina. The observation that antagonistic effects at both the ER and AR represented the most prevalent endocrine potentials was also supported by chemical analysis that revealed greater concentrations of compounds with the ability to act as ER and AR antagonists, while there were low concentrations or no presence of chemicals previously shown to agonistically interact with these receptors. The results obtained by the combination of in vitro and the two parallel in vivo and chemical analysis demonstrated that in vitro assays can be used as a cost-effective tool for prioritizing potential endocrine disrupting impacts of MWWEs in aquatic environments. The significant endocrine activity, in particular, antagonism of sex steroid receptors, warrants further investigations to characterize the actual risks they may pose to aquatic wildlife. This is particularly true in cases where WWTPs utilize primary and/or outdated lagoon-based treatment technologies, such as Regina and Montreal. Furthermore, in cases where effluent flow is proportionally higher than that of the receiving water body, which can be encountered in many urban municipalities in semi-arid regions such as Regina in southern Saskatchewan, or in situations where the population is greater than WWTPs’ treatment capacity, bypassing untreated sewage, downstream ecosystems may be of particular risk.

Imran, A. (2023) Characterizing the legacy in progress effects of large-scale flooding on the hydrological and limnological conditions of shallow lakes in a northern delta. University of Waterloo.

Characterizing the legacy in progress effects of large-scale flooding on the hydrological and limnological conditions of shallow lakes in a northern delta

Characterizing vulnerability of shallow ponds to climate warming across the whooping crane's summer breeding range (Alberta-NWT): a new collaborative project

Anderson L., Neary L., Bidwell M., Conkin J., Parker L., Kindopp R., Wolfe B., Hall R. (2022) Characterizing vulnerability of shallow ponds to climate warming across the whooping crane's summer breeding range (Alberta-NWT): a new collaborative project. GNWT-Laurier Partnership Annual General Meeting, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo.

Characterizing vulnerability of shallow ponds to climate warming across the whooping crane's summer breeding range (Alberta-NWT): a new collaborative project

In agricultural watersheds across the world, decades of commercial fertilizer application and intensive livestock production have led to elevated stream nutrient levels and problems of eutrophication in both inland and coastal waters. Despite widespread implementation of a range of strategies to reduce nutrient export to receiving water bodies, expected improvements in water quality have often not been observed. It is increasingly understood that long time lags to seeing reductions in stream nutrient concentrations can result from the existence of legacy nutrient stores within the landscape. However, it is less understood how spatial heterogeneity in legacy nutrient dynamics might allow us to target implementation of appropriate management practices. In this thesis, we have explored the dominant controls of legacy nitrogen accumulation in a predominantly agricultural 6000-km2 mixed-landuse watershed. First, we synthesized a 216 year (1800 – 2016) nitrogen (N) mass balance trajectory at the subbasin scale accounting for inputs from population, agriculture, and atmospheric data, and output from crop production using a combination of census data, satellite imagery data, and existing model estimates. Using these data, we calculated the N surplus, defined as the difference between inputs to the soil surface from manure application, atmospheric deposition, fertilizer application, and biological N fixation, and outputs primarily from crop production. We then used the ELEMeNT-N model, with the estimates of the N mass balance components as the model inputs, to quantify legacy accumulation in the groundwater and soil in the study basin and 13 of its subbasins. Our results showed that from 1950, N surplus across the study site rose dramatically and plateaued in 1980. Agricultural inputs from fertilizer and biological nitrogen fixation were the dominant drivers of N surplus magnitude in all areas of the watershed. Model results revealed that 40% of the N surplus to the watershed since 1940 is stored as legacy N, and that the proportion of N surplus that is stored as legacy vary across the watershed, ranging from 33% to 69%. Where legacy tends to accumulate also varies across the watershed, ranging from 49% - 72% stored in soil, and 28% - 51% stored in groundwater. Through correlation analysis, we found that soil N accumulation tends to occur where there is high agricultural N surplus, and groundwater N accumulation tends to occur where mean groundwater travel times are long. We also found that using the model calibrated mean groundwater travel times as an indication of lag times, we can identify the length of lag time in various regions in the watershed to help inform long-term management plans. Our modeling framework provides a way forward for the design of more targeted approaches to water quality management.

Chang, S., Q. Zhang, Byrnes, D. K., Basu, N. B., Van Meter, K. J. (2021) Chesapeake legacies: the importance of legacy nitrogen to improving Chesapeake Bay water quality. Environmental Research Letters (special Legacy issue), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748- 9326/ac0d7b

Environmental Research Letters (special Legacy issue

Chesapeake legacies: the importance of legacy nitrogen to improving Chesapeake Bay water quality

The United Nations (UN) has identified 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to tackle major barriers to sustainable development by 2030. Achieving these goals will rely on the contribution of all nations and require balancing trade-offs among different sectors. Water and food insecurity have long been the two major challenges facing China. To address these challenges and achieve the SDGs, China needs to safeguard its agricultural irrigation and water conservancy projects. Although China is making efforts to transition its agricultural development to a sustainable trajectory by promoting water-saving irrigation, a number of issues are emerging, both with policy reforms and technological innovations. Through synthesizing the historical development of agriculture and its relationship with policy and political regimes, this paper identifies four major issues that are challenging the sustainability transformation of China’s agricultural irrigation system and water conservancy projects: (1) problems with financial policy coordination between central and local governments; (2) the lack of incentives for farmers to construct and maintain irrigation infrastructure; (3) conflicts between decentralized operation of land and benefits from shared irrigation infrastructure; and (4) deterioration of small-scale irrigation infrastructure calls for action. In addressing these challenges, policy changes are required: government financial accountability at all levels needs to be clarified; subsidies need to be raised for the construction and management of small-scale irrigation and water conservancy projects; local non-profit organizations need to be established to enhance co-management between farmers and government.

China's Agricultural Irrigation and Water Conservancy Projects: A Policy Synthesis and Discussion of Emerging Issues

https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5139-2022 All code is available in the project GitHub repository (https://github.com/hfadams/pci, last access: 7 August 2022) and in Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6972355, Adams, 2022). The PCI dataset and additional data files can be openly accessed at the Federated Research Data Repository at https://doi.org/10.20383/102.0488 (Ada ms et al., 2021).

Study region Lower Nelson River Basin, Manitoba, Canada Study focus Hydroelectricity makes up almost 97% of electricity generated in Manitoba, of which over 70% of its generation capacity is installed along the Lower Nelson River (LNR). In this study, 19 climate projections representing ~ 87% of climatic variability over Hudson Bay Drainage Basin are applied to coupled hydrologic-operations models to estimate water supply and hydropower generation potential changes under future climates. New hydrological insights for the region Future inflow to the forebay of the main hydropower generating stations along LNR is expected to increase in spring and summer but decrease in winter and fall. Consequently, hydropower generation potential is projected to increase for spring, the historical flood season, which may lead to reduced reservoir inflow retention efficiency. In extremely dry climatic simulations, winter seasons see a reduction in reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential, up to 35% and 37% in 2021–2050 and 2041–2070, respectively. Projected changes in reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential continue to diverge over time, with dry scenarios becoming drier and wet becoming wetter, yielding high basin climate sensitivity and uncertainty with system supply and generation potential. Despite the presence of statistically significant individual trends and changes, there is a low agreement within the climate ensemble. Analysis of system robustness shows adjustment of the operations along LNR should be considered over time to better leverage changing seasonal water supply.

Despite numerous studies in statistical downscaling methodologies, there remains a lack of methods that can downscale from precipitation modeled in global climate models to regional level high resolution gridded precipitation. This paper reports a novel downscaling method using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), CliGAN, which can downscale large-scale annual maximum precipitation given by simulation of multiple atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCM) from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to regional-level gridded annual maximum precipitation data. This framework utilizes a convolution encoder-dense decoder network to create a generative network and a similar network to create a critic network. The model is trained using an adversarial training approach. The critic uses the Wasserstein distance loss function and the generator is trained using a combination of adversarial loss Wasserstein distance, structural loss with the multi-scale structural similarity index (MSSIM), and content loss with the Nash-Sutcliff Model Efficiency (NS). The MSSIM index allowed us to gain insight into the model’s regional characteristics and shows that relying exclusively on point-based error functions, widely used in statistical downscaling, may not be enough to reliably simulate regional precipitation characteristics. Further use of structural loss functions within CNN-based downscaling methods may lead to higher quality downscaled climate model products.

This thesis presents an assessment of the effects of climate change in reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential across the Lower Nelson River Basin. A hydrologic-operations model coupling framework was developed and two coupled models, WATFLOOD-MODSIM and HEC-HMS-MODSIM, were set up to simulate both basin water balance and hydropower generation. The coupled models were driven by nineteen climate simulations from CMIP5 to compute historical (1981-2010) and future (2021-2070) reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential. This work aimed to identify changes in the annual and seasonal reservoir inflow quantity and distribution and to evaluate the likelihood of future hydropower generation exceedance (relative to a historical threshold). Results show that it is about as likely as not or unlikely to be a statistically significant trend (neither increase nor decrease) in annual and seasonal reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential over 30-year periods on Lower Nelson River. There is a large variability in projected changes in both annual and seasonal reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential due to dry scenarios becoming drier and wet scenarios becoming wetter over the years. Winter is identified as the season with the greatest possible reduction in reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential and the least possible increase in the 30-year mean over time. Increases in reservoir inflow did not always translate to an increase in hydropower generation potential on the Lower Nelson River due to limits on system generation capacity for storing water. Therefore, a reduction in inflow directly translated to a reduction in hydropower generation potential, while an increase in inflow only contributed to a limited increase in hydropower generation potential.

In the recent decades, precipitation patterns and corresponding streamflow responses in many cold regions catchments have changed considerably due to warming. Understanding historical changes and predicting future responses are of great importance for planning and management of water resources systems. Regional climate simulations using convention- permitting models are helpful in representing the fine-scale cloud and mesoscale processes, which are critical for understanding the physical mechanisms that cause in convective precipitation. From a hydrological perspective, these fine resolution simulations are helpful in understanding the runoff generation mechanisms, particularly for mountainous watersheds, which have high spatial variation in precipitation due to large differences in elevation over small distances. Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) is developing the Federal Flood Mapping Guidelines Series to support the National Disaster Mitigation Program (NDMP) led by Public Safety Canada (PS). These documents are developed through consultation with practitioners and stakeholders including the Federal Flood Mapping Committee (FMC) chaired by NRCan and PS, and the 175 members of the Technical Working Group (TWG). The TWG comprises technical experts and practitioners from across Canada, and includes several sub-groups including the Climate Change Sub-Group. The Guideline Series is intended to move toward common practices in flood mapping across Canada and are published for all Canadians. NRCan published the “Case Studies on Climate Change and Floodplain Mapping” in 2018, which offered insight into incorporating climate change projections into flood mapping studies at three locations in Canada. This was followed by a publication by the National Research Council (NRC) in March 2019 titled “An Inventory of Methods for Estimating Climate Change-Informed Design Water Levels for Floodplain Mapping”, which describes current practices across Canada for incorporating climate change into flood mapping studies. Global Water Futures (GWF) conducted a study on “Historical and Future Flow Regimes at the Bow River in Calgary” referred to as the Bow River Basin Study (BRBS) with funding support from NRCan’s Climate Change Impacts Adaptation Division (CCIAD). This project offered insight into the effects of climate change on flow in that watershed. GWF indicated that the ‘next steps’ for that work were to: prepare a case study report on how climate change may affect future flood flows that could be applied to floodplain mapping; and, detail how climate change can be downscaled and applied in large scale hydrological assessments of impacts on hydrological regimes. The sister-study of this report, the Bow River Basin Study (BRBS), used a physically based hydrological land surface scheme along with a water management model, coupled with a high resolution convention- permitting atmospheric regional model (Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF) to understand the streamflow generating mechanisms and identify the changes in streamflow responses of the Bow and Elbow River Basins. The coupled model appears to provide a large improvement in predictability, with minimal calibration of parameters and without bias correction of forcing from the atmospheric model. The model 4 was able to provide reliable estimates of streamflows, despite the complex topography in the catchment. Using the WRF Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) scenario, estimated future streamflows simulated were then used to develop projected flow exceedance curves. The uncertainty in the simulations is extremely helpful in the risk assessment for downstream flood inundations. However, the uncertainty in streamflows cannot be assessed as the WRF- PGW dataset was only available for a single realization, because of the high computational cost. The research presented in this report focusses instead on using the highly efficient hydrological model developed and verified in BRBS whilst assessing uncertainty using another regional climate model, the CanRCM4, where many realizations are available for different boundary conditions. Since the CanRCM4 simulations have a relatively low resolution, a novel methodology was developed to adjust regional climate model outputs using the WRF-PGW data. An ensemble of 15 CanRCM4 simulations was used to force the Bow River basin model to determine a measure of the uncertainty in the simulated streamflows, and the projected streamflow exceedance probability curves. These curves are extremely useful for risk assessment for downstream flood inundations. Given the importance of understanding how much extreme precipitation will change in urban areas of the basin, where short duration high intensity events cause flash flooding, frequency analysis of these events was carried out for Calgary and Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves were developed. A ready-to-use empirical form of IDF curve has been proposed from this analysis for the City of Calgary. The results from the WRF-PGW modelling indicated that future high flow, low frequency (exceedances less than 10%) streamflow events will decrease compared to those under the current climate condition by 4, 9 and 1.6 m3/s for the Bow River at Banff and Calgary and Elbow River at Sarcee Bridge respectively. The average of the 15 new CanRCM4-WRF-PGW results supports the above result with some greater decreases in streamflow of 9, 16 and 4 m3/s for Bow River at Banff and Calgary and Elbow River at Sarcee Bridge respectively. However, there were some CanRCM4-WRF-PGW realisations that suggested substantial increases in future low frequency streamflow from those indicated by the average CanRCM4- WRF-PGW-drive MESH model. The below average, high frequency (exceedances greater than 30%) future streamflows will increase modestly in all gauging locations by from 1 to 12.5 m3/s. The results of the extreme precipitation analysis at Calgary indicated an increase in future extreme precipitation events of all duration and return periods. On an average an increase of 1.5 times is noted for short return periods (=2, 5), and an increase of 4 times for long return periods (=500, 1000). Finally, this study provides a blueprint for other studies that aims in assessing the impact of future climate change on the streamflow and flood frequency analysis for major rivers that flow into urban areas and it can be taken as a pilot study for Canada. The study highlights the usefulness of multi-CanRCM4 realisations and high-resolution WRF model outputs in studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change. The flow duration curves developed from this study can be used to estimate flood frequency for floodplain mapping purposes if they are 5 used as inputs to locally developed hydraulic models of the region of interest. The methodology shown here can be applied to river basins flowing into communities of interest across Canada. As a precondition for such applications a national gridded database of high resolution (4 km) WRF model downscaled climate model outputs that have been perturbed by multiple bias-corrected regional climate model realisations should be prepared as a national forcing dataset for hydrological model applications. The MESH hydrological model evaluated here performed quite well when driven by high resolution WRF model outputs and should be examined for national application to force local hydraulic models of flood inundation elsewhere in Canada. This would be the basis for a coherent national approach to floodplain mapping that takes into account both non-stationarity due to climate change and uncertainty from climate models. Adopting this state-of-the-art approach would make Canada a global leader in assessing the risks of changing flooding due to climate change.

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural and built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As the world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. The impacts of extreme events will also be more severe due to the increased exposure (growing population and development) and vulnerability (aging infrastructure) of human settlements. Climate models attribute part of the projected increases in the intensity and frequency of natural disasters to anthropogenic emissions and changes in land use and land cover. Here, we review the impacts, historical and projected changes,and theoretical research gaps of key extreme events (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, and flooding). We also highlight the need to improve our understanding of the dependence between individual and interrelated climate extremes because anthropogenic-induced warming increases the risk of not only individual climate extremes but also compound (co-occurring) and cascading hazards. ▪ Climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in a warming world. ▪ Anthropogenic-induced warming increases the risk of compound and cascading hazards. ▪ We need to improve our understanding of causes and drivers of compound and cascading hazards.

GWF-Paradigm Shift in Downscaling Climate Model Projections|

Risk of waterborne diseases (WBDs) persists in temperate regions. The extent of influence of climate-related factors on the risk of specific WBDs in a changing climate and the projections of future climate scenarios on WBDs in temperate regions are unclear. A systematic review was conducted to identify specific waterborne pathogens and diseases prevalent in temperate region literature and transmission cycle associations with a changing climate. Projections of WBD risk based on future climate scenarios and models used to assess future disease risk were identified. Seventy-five peer-reviewed full-text articles for temperate regions published in the English language were included in this review after a search of Scopus and Web of Science databases from 2010 to 2023. Using thematic analysis, climate-related drivers impacting WBD risk were identified. Risk of WBDs was influenced mostly by weather (rainfall: 22% and heavy rainfall: 19%) across the majority of temperate regions and hydrological (streamflow: 50%) factors in Europe. Future climate scenarios suggest that WBD risk is likely to increase in temperate regions. Given the need to understand changes and potential feedback across fate, transport and exposure pathways, more studies should combine data-driven and process-based models to better assess future risks using model simulations.

Streamflow in high-mountain Asia is influenced by meltwater from snow and glaciers, and determining impacts of climate change on the region’s cryosphere is essential to understand future water supply. Past and future changes in seasonal snow are of particular interest, as specifics at the scale of the full region are largely unknown. Here we combine models with observations to show that regional snowmelt is a more important contributor to streamflow than glacier melt, that snowmelt magnitude and timing changed considerably during 1979–2019 and that future snow meltwater supply may decrease drastically. The expected changes are strongly dependent on the degree of climate change, however, and large variations exist among river basins. The projected response of snowmelt to climate change indicates that to sustain the important seasonal buffering role of the snowpacks in high-mountain Asia, it is imperative to limit future climate change.

Study region Lower Nelson River Basin, Manitoba, Canada Study focus Hydroelectricity makes up almost 97% of electricity generated in Manitoba, of which over 70% of its generation capacity is installed along the Lower Nelson River (LNR). In this study, 19 climate projections representing ~ 87% of climatic variability over Hudson Bay Drainage Basin are applied to coupled hydrologic-operations models to estimate water supply and hydropower generation potential changes under future climates. New hydrological insights for the region Future inflow to the forebay of the main hydropower generating stations along LNR is expected to increase in spring and summer but decrease in winter and fall. Consequently, hydropower generation potential is projected to increase for spring, the historical flood season, which may lead to reduced reservoir inflow retention efficiency. In extremely dry climatic simulations, winter seasons see a reduction in reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential, up to 35% and 37% in 2021–2050 and 2041–2070, respectively. Projected changes in reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential continue to diverge over time, with dry scenarios becoming drier and wet becoming wetter, yielding high basin climate sensitivity and uncertainty with system supply and generation potential. Despite the presence of statistically significant individual trends and changes, there is a low agreement within the climate ensemble. Analysis of system robustness shows adjustment of the operations along LNR should be considered over time to better leverage changing seasonal water supply.

Ice jams are impacted by several climatic factors that are likely to change under a future warming climate. Due to the complexity of river ice phenology, projection of future ice jams is challenging. However, it is important to be able to project future ice jam behavior. Additionally, ice jam research is limited by the shortage of long-term monitoring data. In this paper, a novel framework for projecting future ice jam behavior is developed and implemented for ice jams in a data-sparse region, the Slave River Delta, NWT, Canada, situated in the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB). This framework employs both historical records and future hydro-meteorological data, acquired from climate and hydrological models, to drive the river ice models and quantify climate-induced influences on ice jams. Ice jam behavior analysis is based on three outputs of the framework: potential of river ice jamming, ice jam initiation date, and the stage frequency distribution of backwater elevation induced by ice jams. Trends of later ice jam initiation and decreased possibility of ice jam formation are projected, but ice jamming events in the Slave River Delta are likely to be more severe and cause higher backwater levels.

Climate change impacts on ice jam behavior in an inland delta: a new ice jam projection framework.

Ice jams are impacted by several climatic factors that are likely to change under a future warming climate. Due to the complexity of river ice phenology, projection of future ice jams is challenging. However, it is important to be able to project future ice jam behavior. Additionally, ice jam research is limited by the shortage of long-term monitoring data. In this paper, a novel framework for projecting future ice jam behavior is developed and implemented for ice jams in a data-sparse region, the Slave River Delta, NWT, Canada, situated in the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB). This framework employs both historical records and future hydro-meteorological data, acquired from climate and hydrological models, to drive the river ice models and quantify climate-induced influences on ice jams. Ice jam behavior analysis is based on three outputs of the framework: potential of river ice jamming, ice jam initiation date, and the stage frequency distribution of backwater elevation induced by ice jams. Trends of later ice jam initiation and decreased possibility of ice jam formation are projected, but ice jamming events in the Slave River Delta are likely to be more severe and cause higher backwater levels.

Climate change impacts on ice jam behaviour in an inland delta: a new ice jam projection framework

The present study analyses the impacts of past and future climate change on extreme weather events for southern parts of Canada from 1981 to 2100. A set of precipitation and temperature-based indices were computed using the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble projections at 8 km resolution over the 21st Century for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that this region is expected to experience stronger warming and a higher increase in precipitation extremes in future. Generally, projected changes in minimum temperature will be greater than changes in maximum temperature, as shown by respective indices. A decrease in frost days and an increase in warm nights will be expected. By 2100 there will be no cool nights and cool days. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures will increase by 12 and 7°C, respectively, under the RCP8.5 scenario, when compared with the reference period 1981–2000. The highest warming in minimum temperature and decrease in cool nights and days will occur in Ontario and Quebec provinces close to the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay. The highest warming in maximum temperature will occur in the southern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Annual total precipitation is expected to increase by about 16% and the occurrence of heavy precipitation events by five days. The highest increase in annual total precipitation will occur in the northern parts of Ontario and Quebec and in western British Columbia.

Recent studies have identified stronger warming in the latest generation of climate model simulations globally, and the same is true for projected changes in Canada. This study examines differences for Canada and six sub-regions between simulations from the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and its predecessor CMIP5. Ensembles from both experiments are assessed using a set of derived indices calculated from daily precipitation and temperature, with projections compared at fixed future time intervals and fixed levels of global temperature change. For changes calculated at fixed time intervals most temperature indices display higher projected changes in CMIP6 than CMIP5 for most sub-regions, while greater precipitation changes in CMIP6 occur mainly in extreme precipitation indices. When future projections are calculated at fixed levels of global average temperature increase, the size and spread of differences for future projected changes between CMIP6 and CMIP5 are substantially reduced for most indices. Temperature scaling behaviour, or the regional response to increasing global temperatures, is similar in both ensembles, with annual temperature anomalies for Canada and its sub-regions increasing at between 1.5 and 2.5 times the rate of increase globally, depending on the region. The CMIP6 ensemble projections exhibit modestly stronger scaling behaviour for temperature anomalies in northern Canada, as well as for certain indices of moderate and extreme events. Such temperature scaling differences persist even if anomalously warm CMIP6 global climate models are omitted. Comparing the mean and variance of future projections for Canada in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations from the same modelling centre suggests CMIP6 models are significantly warmer in Canada than CMIP5 models at the same level of forcing, with some evidence that internal temperature variability in CMIP6 is reduced compared with CMIP5.

Climate model projections for Canada from CMIP6

Climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity globally. Northern ecosystems, such as Canada's boreal forest, are predicted to experience particularly severe climate-induced changes. These changes may reduce the carrying capacity and habitat suitability of the boreal forest for many wildlife species. Boreal birds are susceptible to both direct and indirect effects of climate change, and several studies have predicted northward shifts in species distributions as temperatures become warmer. We forecasted spatially-explicit changes in the densities of 72 boreal landbird species using integrated climate change projections and a forest dynamics model in the Taiga Plains ecozone of the Northwest Territories (NT), Canada, over the 2011–2091 horizon. We 1) identified "winner," "loser," and "bellringer" species over short (2031) and long-term (2091) forecasts, 2) mapped landbird range and density changes under three contrasting Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and 3) quantify differences in landbird density predictions across a latitudinal gradient. Species that showed a moderate increase or decrease in their predicted abundance were considered "winners" and "losers," respectively. Species that showed a marked increase or decrease – a doubling or halving – of their predicted abundance in all three GCMs, were termed "bellringers". From 2011–2031, only 2/72 (2.8%) were considered winners, and 3/72 (4.2%) were losers. From 2011–2091, the abundance of more species was predicted to change: 26/72 (36.1%) were winners, and 10/72 species (13.9%) were losers. Four species were considered bellringers: Gray-cheeked Thrush, White-crowned Sparrow, Fox Sparrow, and American Tree Sparrow. Overall, projected range shifts were strongly oriented along a southeast-to-northwest axis. Shifts to the north and south were evenly distributed among all three GCMs. Our results suggest that future climate-mitigated distribution shifts and population declines of boreal landbirds will require targeted conservation actions. They also highlight the importance of the NT as a potential refugium for many boreal-breeding landbird species in Canada.

Motivated by the limited understanding of future changes in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), we investigated characteristics of warm-season (June–August) MCSs in the central United States based on high-resolution convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting simulations. We examined two 15-year simulations, which include current simulations (2004–2018) forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and future simulations (2086–2100) forced by perturbed ERA5 (i.e., ERA5 plus climate change signal derived from 28 Coupled Intercomparison Projected Phase 6 models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway–Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario). The initiations and longevities of MCSs were determined using the object-tracking algorithm MODE-Time Domain (MTD) from observation, current simulations (ERA), and future simulations (pseudo-global warming, PGW). Objects identified by MODE-Time Domain were divided into short-/long-lived (based on 75th percentiles of longevity) and daytime (initiated during 0000–1100 UTC)/nighttime (initiated during 1200–2300 UTC). We found that ERA and observation have comparable occurrences of MCSs. MCSs in PGW are associated with intensified rain rates in New Mexico, Colorado, and Kansas and lower rain rates in Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas than in ERA. Moreover, the statistical analysis based on 15 parameters before MCSs initiation indicates that short-lived MCSs in PGW are characterized by prominent changes in precipitable water (PW) and the most unstable convective available potential energy. We also found that long-lived MCSs in PGW are associated with prominent changes in PW, unstable convective available potential energy, and isentropic potential vorticity at 345 K. According to the statistical results, PW is the most important variable in determining the longevity of MCSs and in understanding future changes.

A code clone is defined as a pair of similar code fragments within a software system. While code clones are not always harmful, they can have a detrimental effect on the overall quality of a software system due to the propagation of bugs and other maintenance implications. Because of this, software developers need to analyse the code clones that exist in a software system. However, despite the availability of several clone detection systems, the adoption of such tools outside of the clone community remains low. A possible reason for this is the difficulty and complexity involved in setting up and using these tools. In this paper, we present Clone Swarm, a code clone analytics tool that identifies clones in a project and presents the information in an easily accessible manner. Clone Swarm is publicly available and can mine any open-sourced GIT repository. Clone Swarm internally uses NiCad, a popular clone detection tool in the cloud and lets users interactively explore code clones using a web-based interface at multiple granularity levels (Function and Block level). Clone results are visualized in multiple overviews, all the way from a high-level plot down to an individual line by line comparison view of cloned fragments. Also, to facilitate future research in the area of clone detection and analysis, users can directly download the clone detection results for their projects. Clone Swarm is available online at clone-swarm.usask.ca. The source code for Clone Swarm is freely available under the MIT license on GitHub.

noproject,accepted

Tracking the effects of air pollution from industries is important for developing management strategies under changing emissions. However, computational tools for air pollution assessment often do not elucidate modeling uncertainty, making it difficult for environmental policy-makers to know how much confidence to put in model results, which also hampers aspects that may need improving. This study examined how the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ modeling system with various planetary boundary-layer (PBL) schemes and atmospheric datasets mimics the local meteorology, air quality and acidic deposition at 1 km horizontal resolution over the industrializing Terrace-Kitimat Valley of northwestern British Columbia. Quantitative and qualitative correspondence of model outputs with observational data varied with station location, the nature of pollutant emissions, and quantity of chemical species. Valid model outputs were used to delineate present compliance with objectives on ambient fine particulate matter, and baseline exceedance of critical loads of sulfur and nitrogen deposition for the forest ecosystem. Spatial impacts of anticipated industrial emissions on the environment were also assessed. An additional 15 tonnes day-1 permissible SO2 emission from an aluminum smelter in Kitimat was projected to result in 50–88 % increase in aerial exceedance of the limit for protection of lichen, and 37–67 % increase in spatial exceedance of acidic deposition to soils. Cumulatively, 16–18 km2 of plant habitat, and 10–11 km2 of soil in an area contiguous with the smelter site will likely be damaged by its SO2 emission under the latest regulation. Should two Liquefied Natural Gas projects commence operations, cumulative NOx concentrations are expected to remain below harmful levels, while pre-existing areal exceedance of nitrogen deposition will barely increase (0–1 km2). An additional 4 km2 area will be exposed to SO2 concentrationsiii that are directly harmful to vegetation, while 13–14 km2 total area with an average of 29.7–35.0 kg ha-1 yr-1 excess sulfur deposition was estimated. These projections assumed all future emissions of NOx, SO2 and other air pollutants will be from elevated point sources.

Precipitation is a critical part of the global hydrological cycle that determines the distribution of water resources. It is also an essential meteorological variable used as input for hydroclimatic models and projections. However, precipitation data frequently lack complete series, especially at daily and sub-daily precipitation stations, which are usually large, bulky, and complex. To address this, gap filling is commonly used to produce complete hydrometeorological data series without missing values. Several gap-filling methods have been developed and improved. This study seeks to fill the gaps of 201 daily precipitation time series in Central Italy by localizing the approach used to generate the Serially Complete dataset for the Planet Earth (SC-Earth). This method combines the outcome of 15 strategies based on four various gap-filling techniques (quantile mapping, spatial interpolation, machine learning, and multi-strategy merging). These strategies employ the daily dataset of the neighbouring stations and the matched ERA5 data to estimate missing values at the target stations. Both raw data and the final serially complete station datasets (SCDs) underwent comprehensive quality control. Many accuracy indicators have been utilized to evaluate the performance of the strategies' estimations and the final SCD, such as Correlation Coefficient (CC), Root mean square error (RMSE), Relative bias (Bias %), and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE″). Multi-strategy merging strategy based on the Modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (MS1) shows the highest performance as an individual precipitation gap-filling strategy. However, the machine learning strategy using random forest (ML3) has the most outstanding share in the final estimates among all other strategies. In the end, the temporal–spatial performance of the final SCD is promising and depends on the pattern of the missing values (MV%). The mean values of KGE″, CC, variability (α), and bias term (β) are 0.9, 0.93, 1.064, and 4.98 × 10−7, respectively.

Although Earth system models (ESMs) tend to overestimate historical land surface warming, they also overestimate snow amounts in the Northern Hemisphere. By combining ground-based datasets and ESMs, we find that this paradoxical phenomenon is predominantly driven by an overestimation of light snowfall frequency. Using spatially distributed emergent constraints, we show that this paradox persists in mid- (2041–2060) and long-term (2081–2100) projections, affecting more than half of the Northern Hemisphere’s land surface. ESMs underestimate the frequency of freezing days by 12–19% and overestimate snow water equivalent by 28–34%. Constrained projections indicate that the raw ESM outputs overestimate future Northern Hemisphere snowmelt water by 12–16% across 53–60% of the Northern Hemisphere’s land surface. This snowmelt water overprediction implies that the amount of water available in the future for agriculture, industry, ecosystems and domestic use may be lower than unadjusted ESM projections suggest.

Rare precipitation events with return periods of multiple decades to hundreds of years are particularly damaging to natural and societal systems. Projections of such rare, damaging precipitation events in the future climate are, however, subject to large inter-model variations. We show that a substantial portion of these differences can be ascribed to the projected warming uncertainty, and can be robustly reduced by using the warming observed during recent decades as an observational constraint, implemented either by directly constraining the projections with the observed warming or by conditioning them on constrained warming projections, as verified by extensive model-based cross-validation. The temperature constraint reduces >40% of the warming-induced uncertainty in the projected intensification of future rare daily precipitation events for a climate that is 2°C warmer than preindustrial across most regions. This uncertainty reduction together with validation of the reliability of the projections should permit more confident adaptation planning at regional levels.

Li, C., Sun, Q., Wang, J., Liang, Y., Zwiers, F.W., Zhang, X., Li, T. (2024) Constraining projected changes in rare intense precipitation events across global land regions, Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105605

Very rare extreme precipitation events are particularly damaging to natural and societal systems. Projections of such rare, damaging precipitation events in the future climate vary substantially among climate models. Reducing this uncertainty will aid adaptation planning. We show here that the projected range of future rare precipitation intensification is strongly affected by the projected range of global warming, especially for regions where the intensification is dominated by increases in atmospheric moisture. We verify that using the past global warming trend as an observational constraint can eliminate more than 40% of the warming-induced uncertainty in the intensification of future rare precipitation events at 2°C warmer above preindustrial across most global land regions. This narrowing of the possible range of future rare precipitation intensification at regional scales can greatly benefit adaptation planning.

Constraining projected changes in rare intense precipitation events across global land regions

The warming climate is creating increased levels of climate risk because of changes to the hazards to which human and natural systems are exposed. Projections of how those hazards will change are affected by uncertainties in the climate sensitivity of climate models, among other factors. While the level-of-global-warming approach can circumvent model climate sensitivity uncertainties in some applications, practitioners faced with specific adaptation responsibilities often find such projections difficult to use because they generally require time-oriented information. Earth system projections following specified emissions scenarios can, however, be constrained by applying the level-of-global-warming approach to observationally constrained warming projections to yield more reliable time-oriented projections for adaption planning and implementation. This approach also allows individual groups to produce consistent and comparable assessments of multifaceted climate impacts and causal mechanisms, thereby benefiting climate assessments at national and international levels that provide the science basis for adaptation action.

Constraining the entire Earth system projections for more reliable climate change adaptation planning

Nutrient losses from agricultural operations contributes to the issue of eutrophication of freshwater systems. Although many studies have been conducted on diffuse nutrient losses from fertilizer application, there is a paucity of studies on point source phosphorus (P) loss from bunker silos. Furthermore, the build-up of legacy P in the landscape from historical land management practices can create critical source areas of P that contribute to P loads long after those practices cease. The goal of this thesis is to quantify the contribution of a dairy farm (dominated by bunker silo losses) to watershed P losses, and to monitor P concentrations in surface and groundwater across a riparian zone to characterize the sorption potential of its sediments and infer whether the riparian zone may be acting as a sink for P, or a source of previously retained (legacy) P to the stream. Stream discharge was monitored continuously throughout the study, and automatic water samplers were deployed in the stream above, and below the bunker silo to analyze soluble reactive P (SRP), total dissolved P (TDP), and total P (TP) on an event basis. The riparian zone was equipped with a series of nested wells and piezometers along a three transects to monitor groundwater P levels, and to determine the hydraulic conductivity of the riparian groundwater. A transect was also installed on the unaffected side of the transect as a reference. The farmyard contribution to watershed P losses over a one-year period was 32% (SRP) and 22% (TP). Cumulative loads over the entire study suggest that the farmyard P losses were 21.2 kg/ha SRP and 120 kg/ha TP. Peak P concentrations occurred during snowmelt and thaw events and were smaller during periods of baseflow. However, after the bunker silo was refilled in mid-summer months, both SRP and TP were considerably elevated. Large amounts of P were found to be stored in the riparian soil, however, estimated contributions of riparian P to the overall loads were negligible. This may be a result of missed flowpaths during site set-up, or an occurrence of upwelling of P in the streambed. The results of this research suggest that this particular farmyard bunker silo contributes large amounts of P to the adjacent stream on an annual basis. This study should be used as a starting point for future studies examining livestock farmyard nutrient losses.

Arctic Indigenous Peoples are among the most exposed humans when it comes to foodborne mercury (Hg). In response, Hg monitoring and research have been on-going in the circumpolar Arctic since about 1991; this work has been mainly possible through the involvement of Arctic Indigenous Peoples. The present overview was initially conducted in the context of a broader assessment of Hg research organized by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. This article provides examples of Indigenous Peoples' contributions to Hg monitoring and research in the Arctic, and discusses approaches that could be used, and improved upon, when carrying out future activities. Over 40 mercury projects conducted with/by Indigenous Peoples are identified for different circumpolar regions including the U.S., Canada, Greenland, Sweden, Finland, and Russia as well as instances where Indigenous Knowledge contributed to the understanding of Hg contamination in the Arctic. Perspectives and visions of future Hg research as well as recommendations are presented. The establishment of collaborative processes and partnership/co-production approaches with scientists and Indigenous Peoples, using good communication practices and transparency in research activities, are key to the success of research and monitoring activities in the Arctic. Sustainable funding for community-driven monitoring and research programs in Arctic countries would be beneficial and assist in developing more research/monitoring capacity and would promote a more holistic approach to understanding Hg in the Arctic. These activities should be well connected to circumpolar/international initiatives to ensure broader availability of the information and uptake in policy development

The notion of convergent and transdisciplinary integration, which is about braiding together different knowledge systems, is becoming the mantra of numerous initiatives aimed at tackling pressing water challenges. Yet, the transition from rhetoric to actual implementation is impeded by incongruence in semantics, methodologies, and discourse among disciplinary scientists and societal actors. Here, we embrace "integrated modeling" - both quantitatively and qualitatively - as a vital exploratory instrument to advance such integration, providing a means to navigate complexity and manage the uncertainty associated with understanding, diagnosing, predicting, and governing human-water systems. From this standpoint, we confront disciplinary barriers by offering seven focused reviews and syntheses of existing and missing links across the frontiers distinguishing surface and groundwater hydrology, engineering, social sciences, economics, Indigenous and place-based knowledge, and studies of other interconnected natural systems such as the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosphere. While there are, arguably, no bounds to the pursuit of inclusivity in representing the spectrum of natural and human processes around water resources, we advocate that integrated modeling can provide a focused approach to delineating the scope of integration, through the lens of three fundamental questions: (a) What is the modeling "purpose"? (b) What constitutes a sound "boundary judgment"? and (c) What are the "critical uncertainties" and their compounding effects? More broadly, we call for investigating what constitutes warranted "systems complexity," as opposed to unjustified "computational complexity" when representing complex natural and human-natural systems, with careful attention to interdependencies and feedbacks, scaling issues, nonlinear dynamics and thresholds, hysteresis, time lags, and legacy effects.

The notion of convergent and transdisciplinary integration, which is about braiding together different knowledge systems, is becoming the mantra of numerous initiatives aimed at tackling pressing water challenges. Yet, the transition from rhetoric to actual implementation is impeded by incongruence in semantics, methodologies, and discourse among disciplinary scientists and societal actors. This paper confronts these disciplinary barriers by advocating a synthesis of existing and missing links across the frontiers distinguishing hydrology from engineering, the social sciences and economics, Indigenous and place-based knowledge, and studies of other interconnected natural systems such as the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosphere. Specifically, we embrace ‘integrated modeling’, in both quantitative and qualitative senses, as a vital exploratory instrument to advance such integration, providing a means to navigate complexity and manage the uncertainty associated with understanding, diagnosing, predicting, and governing human-water systems. While there are, arguably, no bounds to the pursuit of inclusivity in representing the spectrum of natural and human processes around water resources, we advocate that integrated modeling can provide a focused approach to delineating the scope of integration, through the lens of three fundamental questions: a) What is the modeling ‘purpose’? b) What constitutes a sound ‘boundary judgment’? and c) What are the ‘critical uncertainties’ and how do they propagate through interconnected subsystems? More broadly, we call for investigating what constitutes warranted ‘systems complexity’, as opposed to unjustified ‘computational complexity’ when representing complex natural and human-natural systems, with particular attention to interdependencies and feedbacks, nonlinear dynamics and thresholds, hysteresis, time lags, and legacy effects.

Background: Country food consumption by Indigenous peoples is associated with improved nutrition, food security, and lower rates of chronic diseases (Kuhnlein, Burlingame, & Erasmus, 2013); however, these foods can also pose potential risks of exposure to contaminants such as mercury and cadmium (Berti, 1997). Elevated fish mercury concentrations in some lakes in the Sahtú region of the Northwest Territories (NWT) resulted in a series of consumption notices that suggested people limit their consumption of walleye, northern pike, and lake trout from specific lakes in the region (NWT, 2016). Therefore, as part of a health communication component was added. This component was designed to assess participants risk perceptions and awareness of current consumption notices and health messages, to provide baseline data to evaluate the impact of consumption notices, to determine how health messages are currently developed, and to make recommendations to create more targeted communication strategies. Objectives: The research objectives of this thesis are to: 1) Assess participants’ risk perceptions and awareness of current consumption notices and health messages; 2) Provide baseline data to evaluate the impact of consumption notices and health messages over time; 3) Understand how consumption notices and health messages are currently developed and communicated to communities by the Government of the Northwest Territories; and 4) Make recommendations that aim to improve and create more effective communication strategies with focus in the Sahtú Region of the Northwest Territories based on knowledge synthesized from terminology workshop(s), surveys, and interviews. Methods: This project involves a Health Messages Survey, two terminology workshops, community interviews, and stakeholder interviews. Participants were invited to take part in a Health Messages Survey where they were asked questions about their perceptions of contaminants, whether they had heard or seen consumption notices, in addition to their preferences for future health messages based on trust and accessibility. Two terminology workshops were implemented in Délı̨nę, where key terms from the human biomonitoring project were identified, in order to translate or interpret into Slavey language. Twelve interviews were conducted with community members in Délı̨nę to document perceptions and stories regarding contaminants. Interviews also took place in Yellowknife with stakeholders from the Government of the Northwest Territories, the Federal Government, the Dene Nation, and the Giant Mine Oversight Board. Results: Based on the data collected by surveys (n=43), interviews (n=19) and two terminology workshops (n=27) during a two-year period from 2017-2018, we found that country foods are extremely valued in communities for many reasons. Each participant reported eating country foods and many preferred solely relying on country foods rather than: i) store-bought foods; or ii) a mix of store-bought foods and country foods. During community interviews, each participant expressed their gratitude for the country foods that they eat and wished that they could eat it more often. In the terminology workshops, the cultural importance of trapping, fishing, and hunting was discussed. Many participants had heard or seen messages that promoted the nutritional value of country foods and had also learned from their Elders and family members that these foods have been a source of sustenance for thousands of years. The majority of participants had heard or seen messages about fish with high levels of mercury in their country foods from radio, researcher or scientists, and friends and family. These participants also expressed their fear that contaminants may have impacted the country food that they most preferred to eat. The fear that participants expressed invoked change by the Government of the Northwest Territories (GNWT. The GNWT, the primary disseminator of health messages, has since changed their communication strategy from only consumption notices, to fact sheets and general fish consumption guidelines. Conclusion: This project demonstrated the importance of country food in the Sahtú region. In the Sahtú country foods connects people to the traditional and cultural practices that were passed on by parents and Elders which provides a sense of community and of belonging. This project provides baseline data based on surveys, interviews and terminology workshops for a clearer picture of how these participants perceive contaminants, where they currently get their health information, and who they would trust to receive this type of information. More research in the area of northern health and risk communication is necessary in order to compare results to other regions across northern Canada and to determine best practices. In order to create more culturally significant and relevant contaminant health messages, researchers and government must invest time into determining ways that will be well received and heard by the communities they are working with and be adaptable based on the region, a community. For instance, in the Sahtú region, this could include using methods such as the local radio, friends and relatives, researchers or other health workers (nurses, etc.) as the most trusted sources to receive this type of information. Another consideration is assuring that these messages are understood when disseminated. In communities of the Sahtú, this means that providing information about contaminants must be translated in local languages or having translators to disseminate results of research projects. We can use these results as a baseline to compare with other health communication projects happening in northern Canada and other circumpolar Indigenous communities and regions. This thesis has provided further context in disseminating contaminant and health and risk communication messaging and suggestions to improve communication strategies.

We expanded the existing one-dimensional MyLake model by incorporating a vertically resolved sediment diagenesis module and developing a reaction network that seamlessly couples the water column and sediment biogeochemistry. The application of the MyLake-Sediment model to boreal Lake Vansjø illustrates the model's ability to reproduce daily water quality variables and predict sediment-water column exchange fluxes over a long historical period. In prognostic scenarios, we assessed the importance of sediment processes and the effects of various climatic and anthropogenic drivers on the lake's biogeochemistry and phytoplankton dynamics. First, MyLake-Sediment was used to simulate the potential impacts of increasing air temperature on algal growth and water quality. Second, the key role of ice cover in controlling water column mixing and biogeochemical cycles was analyzed in a series of scenarios that included a fully ice-free end-member. Third, in another end-member scenario P loading from the watershed to the lake was abruptly halted. The model results suggest that remobilization of legacy P stored in the bottom sediments could sustain the lake's primary productivity on a time scale of several centuries. Finally, while the majority of management practices to reduce excessive algal growth in lakes focus on reducing external P loads, other efforts rely on the addition of reactive materials that sequester P in the sediment. Therefore, we investigated the effectiveness of ferric iron additions in decreasing the dissolved phosphate efflux from the sediment and, consequently, limit phytoplankton growth in Lake Vansjø.

Agriculture is directly related to food security as it determines the global food supply. Research in agriculture to predict crop productivity and losses helps avoid high food demand with little supply and price spikes. Here, we review ten crop models and one intercomparison project used for simulating crop growth and productivity under various impacts from soil–crop–atmosphere interactions. The review outlines food security and production assessments using numerical models for maize, wheat, and rice production. A summary of reviewed studies shows the following: (1) model ensembles provide smaller modeling errors compared to single models, (2) single models show better results when coupled with other types of models, (3) the ten reviewed crop models had improvements over the years and can accurately predict crop growth and yield for most of the locations, management conditions, and genotypes tested, (4) APSIM and DSSAT are fast and reliable in assessing broader output variables, (5) AquaCrop is indicated to investigate water footprint, quality and use efficiency in rainfed and irrigated systems, (6) all models assess nitrogen dynamics and use efficiency efficiently, excluding AquaCrop and WOFOST, (7) JULES specifies in evaluating food security vulnerability, (8) ORYZA is the main crop model used to evaluate paddy rice production, (9) grain filling is usually assessed with APSIM, DAISY, and DSSAT, and (10) the ten crop models can be used as tools to evaluate food production, availability, and security.

Uncertainties surrounding tree carbon allocation to growth are a major limitation to projections of forest carbon sequestration and response to climate change. The prevalence and extent to which carbon assimilation (source) or cambial activity (sink) mediate wood production are fundamentally important and remain elusive. We quantified source-sink relations across biomes by combining eddy-covariance gross primary production with extensive on-site and regional tree ring observations. We found widespread temporal decoupling between carbon assimilation and tree growth, underpinned by contrasting climatic sensitivities of these two processes. Substantial differences in assimilation-growth decoupling between angiosperms and gymnosperms were determined, as well as stronger decoupling with canopy closure, aridity, and decreasing temperatures. Our results reveal pervasive sink control over tree growth that is likely to be increasingly prominent under global climate change.

Cities are under pressure to operate their services effectively and project costs of operations across various timeframes. In high-latitude and high-altitude urban centers, snow management is one of the larger unknowns and has both operational and budgetary limitations. Snowfall and snow depth observations within urban environments are important to plan snow clearing and prepare for the effects of spring runoff on cities’ drainage systems. In-house research functions are expensive, but one way to overcome that expense and still produce effective data is through citizen science. In this paper, we examine the potential to use citizen science for snowfall data collection in urban environments. A group of volunteers measured daily snowfall and snow depth at an urban site in Saskatoon (Canada) during two winters. Reliability was assessed with a statistical consistency analysis and a comparison with other data sets collected around Saskatoon. We found that citizen-science-derived data were more reliable and relevant for many urban management stakeholders. Feedback from the participants demonstrated reflexivity about social learning and a renewed sense of community built around generating reliable and useful data. We conclude that citizen science holds great potential to improve data provision for effective and sustainable city planning and greater social learning benefits overall.

GWF-Paradigm Shift in Downscaling Climate Model Projections|

This report summarizes the group discussions and priorities that emerged from a workshop hosted by the Cordon Foundation, the University of Waterloo's Water Institute and the Lake Futures project. The workshop was held virtually in December 2020 and the accompanying publication was released in April 2021. Its purpose was to define what is needed to improve access to water quality data in the Great Lakes region.

Jasiak I, Wolfe BB, Hall RI, Venkiteswaran JJ. 2021. Data for: Evaluating spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic, antimony, and lead deposition from legacy gold mine emissions using lake sediment records. Scholars Portal Dataverse, https://doi.org/10.5683/SP2/TNYTQL.

Data for: Evaluating spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic, antimony, and lead deposition from legacy gold mine emissions using lake sediment records

Carbon storage in northern peatlands is estimated to be ~795 Tg, equivalent to ~40% of atmospheric CO2. Peatlands are dominant features of the Western Boreal Plains (WBP), which are experiencing a regime shift to a warmer and drier climate, as well as an increase in forest fire disturbance. Burning of the upper layers of rich organic matter peat releases enormous quantities of C to the atmosphere. The projected response of peatlands to forest fire is concerning, but widely understudied and could be of the utmost importance for the biogeochemical function and future net C balance of peatland. Impacts of climate change driven drying on peatland nutrient dynamics have been explored previously, however, the impacts of wildfire on nutrient dynamics have not been examined. This study assessed the impact of wildfire on N and P bioavailability and nutrient mineralization, plant nutrients balance, and the C and macronutrient stoichiometry and stock in a fen one-year post-wildfire by comparing a Burned and Unburned area. The results show that bioavailable P increased up to 200 times in surface water leachate, 125 times in groundwater and 5 times in peat. Surface ash leachate had increased concentrations in ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-), and through groundwater mobility, the entire fen experienced increased bioavailable N. Mineralization of N and P were minimal at the Burned sites, relative to Unburned sites. Fire affected plant nutrient limitation patterns, switching from dominantly N-limited to NP co-limited in moss and P-limitation in vascular species. Burned site C stock (~14000 kg/ha) was higher relative to the Unburned site, which also increased CN and CP ratios. These findings suggest that long-term effects of elevated C, N, and P concentrations on plant productivity and decomposition must be re-evaluated for fire disturbance to understand the resiliency of peatland biogeochemistry post-wildfire. Environmental controls, including hydrologic, biologic, and edaphic variables modified by the fire and their effect on CO2 fluxes have not been studied holistically. In this thesis, I studied a treed fen burned during the Horse River wildfire in Fort McMurray, AB, comparing CO2 fluxes between a Burned and Unburned area of the fen. We see that both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and total respiration (Rtot) were reduced in magnitude at the Burned sites in comparison to the Unburned site, with peak fluxes in the Unburned site occurring in late June, whereas the Burned site CO2 fluxes peaked later in the growing season. GEP and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) increased in carbon uptake in the Burned sites along a depth of burn (DOB) gradient, with the deepest burned areas having an increased potential to uptake more CO2 than the Unburned site. The data also showed that both bioavailable P and moss recolonization were highest in the deepest burned areas. Unburned environmental controls on CO2 fluxes were dominated by soil temperature, whereas the Burned sites CO2 fluxes were controlled by leaf area index. One-year post-wildfire, the deepest burned areas had between 5-200 times greater concentration of P than the Unburned site, the most moss recolonization, and the greatest CO2 uptake, showing that deeper burning could potentially increase the recovery trajectory and resiliency of northern peatlands after fire disturbance.

Jasiak I, J Telford, JA Wiklund, RI Hall and BB Wolfe. 2019. Defining a legacy pollution footprint: assessing spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic and other metals in sub-arctic lakes using paleolimnology. Canadian Geophysical Union - Hydrology Section Ontario Student Conference, Ryerson University, Toronto. Conference Presentation

Defining a legacy pollution footprint: assessing spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic and other metals in sub-arctic lakes using paleolimnology

Jasiak, I., Telford, J., Wiklund, J. A., Hall, R. I., & Wolfe, B. B. (2019). Defining a legacy pollution footprint: assessing spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic and other metals in sub-arctic lakes using paleolimnology. Global Water Futures Annual Science Meeting 2019, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon. Conference Presentation

Defining a legacy pollution footprint: assessing spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic and other metals in sub-arctic lakes using paleolimnology

Defining a legacy pollution footprint: assessing spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic and other metals in sub-arctic lakes using paleolimnology

Jasiak, I., Telford, J., Wiklund, J. A., Hall, R. I., & Wolfe, B. B. (2019). Defining a legacy pollution footprint: assessing spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic and other metals in sub-arctic lakes using paleolimnology. Canadian Geophysical Union - Hydrology Section Ontario Student Conference, Ryerson University, Toronto. Conference Presentation

Defining a legacy pollution footprint: assessing spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic and other metals in sub-arctic lakes using paleolimnology

Our goal is to develop a low-cost, modular, and energy-efficient water quality monitoring system that utilizes self-hosted servers and can function effectively in remote areas with unreliable connectivity. The system will support queries from both mobile devices and desktops, offer a user interface in multiple languages, and integrate with Terrastories (a geostorytelling application). Designed for open source and educational use, the project ensures secure transmission and storage of sensitive data while maintaining configurability for various use cases.

Snow cover dynamics in alpine regions play a crucial role in view of the water balance of head water catchments. The temporal storage of water in form of snow and ice leads to a decoupling of precipitation and runoff. Changes in the volume and the temporal dynamics of the snow storage lead to modified runoff regimes and can influence the frequency of low flow events and floods. For a better estimation of the possible range and direction of future changes, projection runs can be realized by using process-based models. In this study, the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) is used to compile such a model for simulating the snow cover development within research catchment Zugspitze (RCZ; 11.4 km2/Germany). Therefore, the catchment is divided into four hydrological response units (HRUs), able to cover the physiographic characteristics in four elevation zones. The model is evaluated over snow depth measurements. The range of variability within and differences between the HRUs are analyzed, and future projections (2001–2100) are performed on the basis of three different WETTREG realizations. It could be shown that CRHM is able to reproduce the snow cover dynamics very well and that the ongoing climate change does have an identifiable influence on the average extent and size of the snow storage. Furthermore, it could be shown that variations in snow cover dynamics within the RCZ are strongly connected to NAO.

Snow cover dynamics in alpine regions play a crucial role in view of the water balance of head water catchments. The temporal storage of water in form of snow and ice leads to a decoupling of precipitation and runoff. Changes in the volume and the temporal dynamics of the snow storage lead to modified runoff regimes and can influence the frequency of low flow events and floods. For a better estimation of the possible range and direction of future changes, projection runs can be realized by using process-based models. In this study, the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) is used to compile such a model for simulating the snow cover development within research catchment Zugspitze (RCZ; 11.4 km2/Germany). Therefore, the catchment is divided into four hydrological response units (HRUs), able to cover the physiographic characteristics in four elevation zones. The model is evaluated over snow depth measurements. The range of variability within and differences between the HRUs are analyzed, and future projections (2001–2100) are performed on the basis of three different WETTREG realizations. It could be shown that CRHM is able to reproduce the snow cover dynamics very well and that the ongoing climate change does have an identifiable influence on the average extent and size of the snow storage. Furthermore, it could be shown that variations in snow cover dynamics within the RCZ are strongly connected to NAO.

Community-based projects place emphasis on a collaborative approach and facilitate research among Indigenous populations regarding local issues and challenges, such as traditional foods consumption, climate change and health safety. Country foods (locally harvested fish, game birds, land animals and plants), which contribute to improved food security, can also be a primary route of contaminant exposure among populations in remote regions. A community-based project was launched in the Dehcho and Sahtù regions of the Northwest Territories (Canada) to: 1) assess contaminants exposure and nutrition status; 2) investigate the role of country food on nutrient and contaminant levels and 3) understand the determinants of message perception on this issue. Consultation with community members, leadership, local partners and researchers was essential to refine the design of the project and implement it in a culturally relevant way. This article details the design of a community-based biomonitoring study that investigates country food use, contaminant exposure and nutritional status in Canadian subarctic First Nations in the Dehcho and Sahtù regions. Results will support environmental health policies in the future for these communities. The project was designed to explore the risks and benefits of country foods and to inform the development of public health strategies.

Design of a human biomonitoring community-based project in the Northwest Territories Mackenzie Valley, Canada, to investigate the links between nutrition, contaminants and country foods

GWF-Paradigm Shift in Downscaling Climate Model Projections|

Climatologists use formal detection and attribution methods to identify externally forced signals in the observed climate record. Even with these widely used methods, it is still difficult to detect climate change in terrestrial water storage (TWS) at global scale due to the brevity of the time series from global freshwater observations. In this study, we applied a novel method to identify relationship between annual global mean TWS and daily weather patterns (including surface air temperature and humidity fields) using hydrological simulations from ISIMIP2b, yielding fingerprints of anthropogenically forced change. Reanalysis datasets are projected onto the fingerprints to detect climate change at daily scale. It is found that approximately 80% of days for most years since 2016 have informed climate change signals, with high inter-annual variability. While strong signals of forced climate change in global mean TWS could not be uniformly detected from each day during the studied period, the fraction of days detected started to surge from the mid-1970s. Climate change signals in global mean TWS have been accumulated over the last few decades, and our results show that such signals will probably be uniformly detected in every day in the next few decades.

A human biomonitoring study was conducted in Old Crow, Yukon as well as the Dehcho and Sahtú regions of the NWT from 2016-2020. Results of this project indicate that levels of lead, cobalt, manganese, and hexachlorobenzene were elevated in blood and urine samples in some of these communities in comparison to the general Canadian population. Based on community feedback, this study was designed to help identify potential determinants of exposure for these parameters. Multivariable logistic regression models were run to identify possible associations between individual determinants of exposure, including traditional food consumption, lifestyle factors, and demographics, with key biomarkers including lead, manganese, cobalt, and hexachlorobenzene. Several lifestyle factors were associated with elevated exposure levels of these biomarkers, including drinking untreated river water in Old Crow, and smoking. Relationships between consumption of caribou and moose organs, such as bone marrow, bones, and kidney, and elevated blood manganese, lead, and/or HCB levels were observed in the three regions. Though contaminant levels may be elevated in certain traditional foods, these foods remain an important source of nutrients for community members in Old Crow, the Dehcho and Sahtú. Traditional food harvesting and consumption also provides other benefits, including increased physical activity through harvesting, mental health improvements, and spiritual wellness.

Hydropower is a renewable, economic, and low-emission source of energy and has the flexibility to accommodate different electricity demands. The Province of Manitoba’s current electricity supply is about 97% generated by hydropower, making it potentially vulnerable to climate change. The increase in the annual mean temperature in the Canadian Prairies is twice the rise in the global mean temperature, influencing precipitation patterns which ultimately highlights the importance of understanding the impacts of climate change in Manitoba. A MODSIM-DSS model has been developed for the operation of water control structures and hydropower facilities along the Winnipeg River, including the Rainy and English Rivers, which contains 11% of the hydropower capacity in Manitoba. This simulation model is equipped with parametric rule curves representing the operation of control points in the system. These rule curves are calibrated and evaluated against historically measured and observed data. To better understand potential adaptation responses, the simulation model will be used to project the response of this hydropower system to future climate conditions.

Freshwater ecosystems across northern Canada provide important habitat for wildlife and have long supported the traditional lifestyles of Indigenous communities. Multiple potential stressors threaten the security of water supply to northern landscapes, which fosters need for information spanning broad spatial and temporal scales to inform adaptive and mitigative strategies. At the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD; northern Alberta), the world's largest boreal freshwater delta, existing data records have been too short and too sparse to resolve many concerns over the roles of major energy projects (hydroelectric regulation of river flow, oil sands development) and climate change on decline of flood frequency and magnitude and drawdown of shallow aquatic basins, and on supply of substances of concern. Intensive paleolimnological research during the past two decades at the PAD has evaluated past changes in contaminant deposition and hydroecological conditions to discern effects attributable to oil sands development along the Lower Athabasca River and to regulation of Peace River flow by the W.A.C. Bennett Dam. This thesis builds substantially on these previous studies to address knowledge gaps by applying conventional paleolimnological methods at new locations to improve understanding of temporal changes in contaminant deposition and hydrological change and developing an innovative paleolimnological approach for discerning variation in sediment sources over space and time to lakes within the PAD. Concerns of pollution in the PAD stem from potential for dispersal of contaminants released by bitumen mining and processing activities within the Alberta Oil Sands Region (AOSR), which straddle the Lower Athabasca River. Unfortunately, systematic monitoring began thirty years after onset of oil sands development and sampling locations have changed over time, which has hampered the ability to accurately track temporal trends or attribute sources of pollution at the AOSR and downstream locations. Previous paleolimnological studies in the PAD have provided critically missing baseline information by employing lake sediment deposited before oil sands development to evaluate lake or river-bottom sediment deposited after oil sands development for evidence of pollution. Results show no enrichment via fluvial or atmospheric pathways, however, analyses to date were limited to a sediment core from one upland lake and samples of river-bottom sediment collected from a few sites within the Lower Athabasca River and its distributaries within the PAD. In Chapters 2 and 3, contiguous measurements of trace elements (beryllium, chromium, lead, mercury, nickel, vanadium, and zinc) in lake sediment from floodplain and upland lakes were employed to develop knowledge of pre-disturbance concentrations, and to quantify the extent of enrichment in lakes at the PAD since onset of oil sands mining and processing activities via fluvial and atmospheric pathways, respectively. Results demonstrate no enrichment since onset of oil sands development via fluvial pathways. Also, no enrichment via atmospheric pathways was detected for vanadium, nickel and total mercury (THg) at upland lakes coincident with the onset of oil sands activities. Total mercury enrichment was detected at the start of the 20th century in sediment cores from two upland lakes, which is congruent with stratigraphic patterns observed in many other lake sediment records in response to long-range anthropogenic emissions across the northern hemisphere. Site-specific paleolimnological studies from four regions spanning large-scale bitumen mining on the Lower Athabasca River to gold mining in central Northwest Territories (including AOSR, PAD, Slave River Delta (SRD), Yellowknife region of central NWT) have provided a wealth of information about temporal patterns of deposition of substances of concern. Differences in laboratory methods and data analysis, however, have challenged ability to compare and contrast site-specific studies among regions. Opportunity to coalesce the current state of knowledge was capitalized on in Chapter 4 via systematic re-analysis of concentrations of key pollution-indicator trace elements in sediment cores from 51 lakes spanning the four key regions. Lake sediment records from lakes within the mining regions (AOSR and central Northwest Territories) illustrate enrichment of pollution-indicators since onset of mining and processing activities via atmospheric pathways, while no enrichment was detected at the PAD or SRD via fluvial pathways since onset of mining activities. The knowledge generated from Chapters 2-4 can be employed by multiple stakeholder groups to assess risks associated with contaminant dispersal across a vast region of northwestern Canada. Long-term perspectives provided by paleohydrological studies at the PAD have demonstrated that decline of flood frequency and magnitude and lake-level drawdown began decades before onset of Peace River flow regulation by the W.A.C. Bennett Dam. Many of these studies have been concentrated in the northern Peace Delta but concerns also exist about declines in river discharge, flood frequency and lake levels in the southern Athabasca Delta. Chapter 5 tests the hypothesis that the Embarras Breakthrough, a natural geomorphic change in distributary flow of the Athabasca River, is the main driver of recent hydrological change in the Athabasca Delta. Stratigraphic variations in the mineral matter content of sediment cores from nine floodplain lakes, including at sites within the Athabasca River terminus region, demonstrate that flood influence increased after 1982 at lakes along a distributary to the north of the Embarras Breakthrough and declined at lakes east of the Embarras Breakthrough. The timing of this bi-directional change confirms that the Embarras Breakthrough has caused the largest shift in hydrological conditions within the Athabasca Delta during the past ~120 years. Paleohydrological reconstructions employing conventional analyses have provided valuable insight into the hydrological evolution of the PAD but integration of the results across sites has remained a challenge due to marked differences in sediment composition across the spectrum of hydrological processes influencing lake water balances. At flood-prone lakes, physical methods (e.g., grain size, magnetic susceptibility) provide high information content, whereas biological or bio-geochemical methods (e.g., diatoms, plant macrofossils, cellulose oxygen isotope composition) provide high information content at perched basins. Elemental concentrations, however, can be determined accurately along the full gradient of mineral-rich to organic-rich sediment of flood-prone and perched basins, respectively, and can be used to delineate the three major sources of sediment supplied to lakes (Athabasca River, Peace River, and local catchment), which is a key advancement over previous paleolimnological studies. In Chapter 6, a mixing model framework was developed and evaluated via application to sediment cores from two adjacent lakes in the Athabasca Delta. Output from the mixing model aligns remarkably well with conventional loss-on-ignition analysis and paleohydrological interpretations from the same two lakes, which further illustrate the profound effect of the 1982 Embarras Breakthrough on hydrological conditions of lakes in Athabasca Delta. Interestingly, model results indicated that ~60% of the sediment originated from the Peace River during the largest ice-jam flood event in the hydrometric record (1974). Due to the success of this model, opportunity exists to apply the model to a network of lakes in the PAD, where elemental concentrations have been analyzed, to reconstruct spatial and temporal variation of pathways of sediment sources and infer changes in hydrological processes. The methods developed and applied in this thesis are anticipated to be broadly applicable to other freshwater landscapes where monitoring records remain too short and too sparse to discern effects of multiple stressors.

In this thesis, a red green and blue (RGB) laser diode driver (LDD) is designed, assembled and tested, which can work as a standalone device or an internal component fully controlled by a laser projector. In particular, the thesis explores a multi-channel RGB LDD for a retrofitted laser projector, targeting projectors for home, business and education. If laser diodes (LDs) with the same color are connected in series, a higher forward voltage is required, making most commercial LDDs unsuitable for this application due to their insufficient compliance voltages. If the connections of all the LDs are in parallel, issues on size and cost arise since many LDs are used in this case. Another problem to use the commercial LDDs for RGB laser projection is that there are no proper communication interfaces to link the LDDs to the laser projector. In order to solve these problems by taking advantage of all the features of iC-HTG, an integrated circuit with automatic current control functionality, both the hardware circuits and the software for an eight-channel LDD are designed. Experimental results show that all the RGB channels can achieve compliance voltage of 23 V within the required working current range, which can drive up to 5 blue, 4 green or 10 red LDs in series in each single channel. It is confirmed experimentally that the designed LDD can fulfill the requirements on driving current (i.e. 1% accuracy and 1% stability). The protection functions of the developed LDD are also explored and verified experimentally. It can detect the open laser connection before the LDD channels are enabled. Fast over-current protection can be achieved within 1.5 µs. Circuit interfaces and protocols of the communications enable the multi-channel RGB LDD to work as a standalone device or an internal component of the laser projector.

Zha, Rong (2019) Development of A Multi-channel RGB Laser Diode Driver for Laser Projection Applications, MacSphere Open Access Dissertations and Theses, http://hdl.handle.net/11375/25036

Development of A Multi-channel RGB Laser Diode Driver for Laser Projection Applications

Machine learning (ML) models have been widely used for hydrological simulation. Previous studies have reported that conventional ML models fail to accurately simulate extreme flows which are crucial for design flood estimation and associated risk analysis in the context of climate change. Therefore, this study proposes a joint probabilistic rainfall-runoff model (JPRR) for improving high-to-extreme flow projection. With the aid of paired copula constructions, bootstrap aggregation, and multi-model ensemble approaches, the proposed model is able to effectively characterize the dependence relationships of predictors (i.e., precipitation time series with different moving sums) with various probability distributions. JPRR has been applied to four pristine basins in China, representing different climate zones and landscapes. The results reveal that JPRR significantly outperforms three well-known ML models (i.e., random forest, artificial neural networks, and long short-term memory) in high-to-extreme flow simulations. In JPRR, the copulas exhibiting the right tail dependence play a more important role in streamflow simulations at mountainous basins. Moreover, a significant difference in streamflow projections (from 2030 to 2099) derived from JPRR and benchmark models imply that flood risks from conventional ML models may be underestimated under changing climatic conditions.

Li, K., Huang, G., Wang, S., Razavi, S., Zhang, X. (2022) Development of a Joint Probabilistic Rainfall-Runoff Model for High-to-Extreme Flow Projections Under Changing Climatic Conditions. Water Resources Research, 58(6), e2021WR031557. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031557

Development of a Joint Probabilistic Rainfall-Runoff Model for High-to-Extreme Flow Projections Under Changing Climatic Conditions

There are many real-world hydrological problems on the Canadian Prairies for which existing tools are poorly suited, due to the region’s complex cold-region hydrology and its equally complex hydrography, which is dominated by depressions, poorly defined and results in dynamic drainage basin contributing areas to streamflow. The complexities of the problems are compounded by changes in hydrology due to climate change, and by changes in depressional storage capacities due to wetland drainage. Although some hydrological models (CRHM, MESH) are able to simulate Prairie hydrology, including the effects of changes in climate, they do not have the ability to simulate detailed local-scale hydraulics. Conversely, hydraulic models which can simulate these small-scale features do not have the ability to simulate prairie hydrological processes. The Prairie Hydrology Design and Analysis Product (PHyDAP) deploys the research results of the GWF Prairie Water Project to produce a tool useful for solving local-scale water problems in the prairies. A classification of prairie basin types (Wolfe et al. 2019), was used to inform, design and parameterize a collection of Cold Region Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) models of “virtual” prairie basins. Each virtual basin model simulates the hydrological functioning of one of seven basin classes. PHyDAP consists of decades-long outputs from the virtual basin models, run for approximately 4000 basins, each approximately 100 km², across the Canadian Prairies. Each basin’s model is forced with local gridded meteorological data, using both historical values and downscaled simulations of future climates, for long time periods. The output variables are time series of rainfall, evaporation from ponded water and the runoff from uplands. We are working with partner organizations who will use the PHyDAP values as inputs to hydraulic models, such as SWMM, to simulate the complex local hydraulic conditions including the local depressions. This will facilitate calculation of the effects of climate change and wetland drainage/restoration on local return period flows and flooding, which can inform iterative design of infrastructure such as culverts. Examples of the data created for PHyDAP and its potential uses for solving small scale hydrological problems on the Prairies are shown.

This report assesses the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology, including the flood frequencies, of the Bow and Elbow Rivers above Calgary, Alberta. It reports on investigations of the effects of projected climate change on the runoff mechanisms for the Bow and Elbow River basins, which are important mountain headwaters in Alberta, Canada. The study developed a methodology and applied a case study for incorporating climate change into flood frequency estimates that can be applied to a variety of river basins across Canada. This research was carried out by scientists from the University of Saskatchewan Centre for Hydrology, under contract to Natural Resources Canada and Alberta Environment and Parks with contributions from the City of Calgary, Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Global Water Futures program. high resolution, enhanced version of Environment and Climate Change Canada’s MESH (Modélisation Environnementale Communautaire - Surface Hydrology) land surface hydrological model was set up at a spatial resolution of approximately 4 km by 4 km to correspond to the resolution of dynamically downscaled Weather Research Forecast (WRF) atmospheric model outputs for current and future climates in the region. This convection-permitting WRF product used ERA-Interim reanalysis product boundary conditions over 2000 - 2015 to produce realistic, high resolution weather simulations. Other available meteorological forcings were evaluated at the lower resolution of approximately 10 km by 10 km for which MESH is normally run. Prior to this study, MESH did not consider the impact of slope and elevation on meteorological forcings below the resolution of the data, which is not a reasonable assumption in mountains. Here, incoming solar radiation was calculated as a function of terrain slope and aspect. Also, precipitation, temperature, pressure, humidity and longwave radiation were corrected for elevation. The necessary cold regions processes (blowing snow, intercepted snow, sublimation, frozen soil infiltration, slope/aspect impacts on melt rates, glacier ice melt) and water management processes needed to simulate the natural and reservoir-managed streamflow hydrographs in the basin were modelled. Most model parameter values were set based on remote sensing, land surveys and the results and understandings from previous regional hydrological investigations, however forest root depth and stomatal resistance, and soil hydraulic conductivity and channel routing model parameters were calibrated using measured (2006 - 2015) streamflows on the Bow River at Banff, and evaluated (2000 - 2005) at the same stream gauging station. The pseudo global warming (PGW) approach to dynamical downscaling of future warming projection under RCP8.5 (2086 - 2100), used WRF bounded by ERA-Interim outputs that were perturbed by the mean outcomes of an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model projections. The simulation results show that, by the end of the century, snowmelt runoff events are projected to increase by up to six events per year, an approximately 20% increase, in the highest elevations of Central Ranges of the Canadian Rockies, primarily in Banff National Park (BNP), and to decrease by up to fourteen events per year, a decrease of approximately 100% in the lower elevation foothills. Snowmelt runoff itself would virtually cease at the middle to lower elevations of the basins. Rain-on-snowmelt events are projected to become more frequent at all elevations (100%-200% increase), particularly in Banff National Park, the Kananaskis and Elbow river iv headwaters, and the agricultural lands in the eastern part of the basins, but less frequent in the foothills where they will drop by 50%. The future reduction in frequency of rain-on-snowmelt events in the foothills is associated with a substantial shortening of the snow-covered period and its increase at medium to high elevations and on the plains is due to more frequent rainfall in winter on the plains and spring in the high mountains. Compared with the historical period, rainfall- runoff events are projected to become more frequent and widespread. They currently cause more than four events per year only in the foothills and eastern part of the basins, this will decline dramatically in the agricultural areas as soil become drier. However, overall, there will be an increase of four events per year for the Bow River Basin, particularly in the foothills, but also in the high mountains, as the warmer climate increases the proportion of precipitation falling as rain. Glacier contributions to runoff will decline dramatically at high elevation locations with concomitant deglaciation, providing notable declines in late summer streamflow above Banff. This is projected to cause a reduction in annual streamflow volumes of less than 2% for the Bow River at Calgary and will have no impact on the Elbow River. A novel way was devised to use bias correction from streamflow observations to reduce the uncertainty of modelled and projected flow duration curves. The effects of climate change on future streamflow is likely to reduce the highest streamflows and to increase the medium and low flows. A detailed examination of historical floods in June of 2005 and 2013 and how such events may shift under future climates showed increases in flood event flow volumes for the Bow River at Banff, but reductions in flood event flow volumes at Calgary in both the Bow and Elbow rivers. These shifts can be attributed to changes in the precipitation regime, and to reduced rain-on-snow runoff and antecedent snowmelt runoff from the Front Ranges – both are consequences of warmer conditions. The increase in rainfall runoff components of the events that causes higher flow volumes at Banff is unable to compensate for the decrease in snowmelt runoff and rain-on- snowmelt runoff components in the Front Ranges and so overall, the flood event flow volumes are smaller at Calgary. A companion report, Centre for Hydrology Report No. 17 incorporates future climate uncertainty from RCMs into subsequent WRF-MESH modelling exercises and should be considered along with this foundational report as part of the comprehensive case study of how to estimate future flood streamflows using coupled climate and hydrological models.

Climate warming may cause mountain snowpacks to melt earlier, reducing summer streamflow and threatening 15 water supplies and ecosystems. Few observations allow separating rain and snowmelt contributions to streamflow, so physically based models are needed for hydrological predictions and analyses. We develop an observational technique for detecting streamflow responses to snowmelt using incoming solar radiation and diel (daily) cycles of streamflow. We measure the 20th percentile of snowmelt days (DOS20), across 31 watersheds in the western US, as a proxy for the beginning of snowmelt-initiated streamflow. Historic DOS20 varies from mid-January to late May, with warmer sites having earlier and 20 more intermittent snowmelt-mediated streamflow. Mean annual DOS20 strongly correlates with the dates of 25% and 50% annual streamflow volume (DOQ25 and DOQ50, both R2 = 0.85), suggesting that a one-day earlier DOS20 corresponds with a one-day earlier DOQ25 and 0.7-day earlier DOQ50. Empirical projections of future DOS20 (RCP8.5, late 21st century), using space-for-time substitution, show that DOS20 will occur 11±4 days earlier per 1°C of warming, and that colder places (mean November-February air temperature, TNDJF < -8ºC) are 70% more sensitive to climate change on average than warmer places 25 (TNDJF > 0ºC). Moreover, empirical space-for-time based projections of DOQ25 and DOQ50 are about four and two times more sensitive to earlier streamflow than those from NoahMP-WRF. Given the importance of changing streamflow timing for headwater resources, snowmelt detection methods such as DOS20 based on diel streamflow cycles may constrain hydrological models and improve hydrological predictions.

In this study we quantified the sensitivity of snow to climate warming in selected mountain sites having a Mediterranean climate, including the Pyrenees in Spain and Andorra, the Sierra Nevada in Spain and California (USA), the Atlas in Morocco, and the Andes in Chile. Meteorological observations from high elevations were used to simulate the snow energy and mass balance (SEMB) and calculate its sensitivity to climate. Very different climate sensitivities were evident amongst the various sites. For example, reductions of 9%–19% and 6–28 days in the mean snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow duration, respectively, were found per °C increase. Simulated changes in precipitation (±20%) did not affect the sensitivities. The Andes and Atlas Mountains have a shallow and cold snowpack, and net radiation dominates the SEMB; and explains their relatively low sensitivity to climate warming. The Pyrenees and USA Sierra Nevada have a deeper and warmer snowpack, and sensible heat flux is more important in the SEMB; this explains the much greater sensitivities of these regions. Differences in sensitivity help explain why, in regions where climate models project relatively greater temperature increases and drier conditions by 2050 (such as the Spanish Sierra Nevada and the Moroccan Atlas Mountains), the decline in snow accumulation and duration is similar to other sites (such as the Pyrenees and the USA Sierra Nevada), where models project stable precipitation and more attenuated warming. The snowpack in the Andes (Chile) exhibited the lowest sensitivity to warming, and is expected to undergo only moderate change (a decrease of <12% in mean SWE, and a reduction of < 7 days in snow duration under RCP 4.5). Snow accumulation and duration in the other regions are projected to decrease substantially (a minimum of 40% in mean SWE and 15 days in snow duration) by 2050.

In addition to aiding in digestion of food and uptake of nutrients, microbiota in guts of vertebrates are responsible for regulating several beneficial functions, including development of an organism and maintaining homeostasis. However, little is known about effects of exposures to chemicals on structure and function of gut microbiota of fishes. To assess effects of exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) on gut microbiota, male and female fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) were exposed to environmentally-relevant concentrations of the legacy PAH benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) in water. Measured concentrations of BaP ranged from 2.3 × 10−3 to 1.3 μg L−1. The community of microbiota in the gut were assessed by use of 16S rRNA metagenetics. Exposure to environmentally-relevant aqueous concentrations of BaP did not alter expression levels of mRNA for cyp1a1, a “classic” biomarker of exposure to BaP, but resulted in shifts in relative compositions of gut microbiota in females rather than males. Results presented here illustrate that in addition to effects on more well-studied molecular endpoints, relative compositions of the microbiota in guts of fish can also quickly respond to exposure to chemicals, which can provide additional mechanisms for adverse effects on individuals.

Discerning the effects of major energy projects, climate and change in distributary flowpaths on hydrology of lakes in the Athabasca Delta, Canada

Kay ML, C Remmer, J Vucic, L Neary, E MacDonald, K Wesenberg, K Thomson, K Brown, JA Wiklund, B Wolfe and RI Hall. (2018). Discerning the effects of major energy projects, climate and change in distributary flowpaths on hydrology of lakes in the Athabasca Delta, Canada. International Paleolimnology Symposium, Stockholm, Sweden. Conference Presentation

Discerning the effects of major energy projects, climate and change in distributary flowpaths on hydrology of lakes in the Athabasca Delta, Canada

Discerning the effects of major energy projects, climate change and distributary flow on hydrology of lakes in the Athabasca Delta using paleolimnology

Discerning the effects of major energy projects, climate change and distributary flow on hydrology of lakes in the Athabasca Delta using paleolimnology

The advancements in information and communications technology, including the widespread adoption of GPS-based sensors, improvements in computational data processing, and satellite imagery, have resulted in new data sources, stakeholders, and methods of producing, using, and sharing spatial data. Daily, vast amounts of data are produced by individuals interacting with digital content and through automated and semi-automated sensors deployed across the environment. A growing portion of this information contains geographic information directly or indirectly embedded within it. The widespread use of automated smart sensors and an increased variety of georeferenced media resulted in new individual data collectors. This raises a new set of social concerns around individual geopricacy and data ownership. These changes require new approaches to managing, sharing, and processing geographic data. With the appearance of distributed data-sharing technologies, some of these challenges may be addressed. This can be achieved by moving from centralized control and ownership of the data to a more distributed system. In such a system, the individuals are responsible for gathering and controlling access and storing data. Stepping into the new area of distributed spatial data sharing needs preparations, including developing tools and algorithms to work with spatial data in this new environment efficiently. Peer-to-peer (P2P) networks have become very popular for storing and sharing information in a decentralized approach. However, these networks lack the methods to process spatio-temporal queries. During the first chapter of this research, we propose a new spatio-temporal multi-level tree structure, Distributed Spatio-Temporal Tree (DSTree), which aims to address this problem. DSTree is capable of performing a range of spatio-temporal queries. We also propose a framework that uses blockchain to share a DSTree on the distributed network, and each user can replicate, query, or update it. Next, we proposed a dynamic k-anonymity algorithm to address geoprivacy concerns in distributed platforms. Individual dynamic control of geoprivacy is one of the primary purposes of the proposed framework introduced in this research. Sharing data within and between organizations can be enhanced by greater trust and transparency offered by distributed or decentralized technologies. Rather than depending on a central authority to manage geographic data, a decentralized framework would provide a fine-grained and transparent sharing capability. Users can also control the precision of shared spatial data with others. They are not limited to third-party algorithms to decide their privacy level and are also not limited to the binary levels of location sharing. As mentioned earlier, individuals and communities can benefit from distributed spatial data sharing. During the last chapter of this work, we develop an image-sharing platform, aka harvester safety application, for the Kakisa indigenous community in northern Canada. During this project, we investigate the potential of using a Distributed Spatial Data sharing (DSDS) infrastructure for small-scale data-sharing needs in indigenous communities. We explored the potential use case and challenges and proposed a DSDS architecture to allow users in small communities to share and query their data using DSDS. Looking at the current availability of distributed tools, the sustainable development of such applications needs accessible technology. We need easy-to-use tools to use distributed technologies on community-scale SDS. In conclusion, distributed technology is in its early stages and requires easy-to-use tools/methods and algorithms to handle, share and query geographic information. Once developed, it will be possible to contrast DSDS against other data systems and thereby evaluate the practical benefit of such systems. A distributed data-sharing platform needs a standard framework to share data between different entities. Just like the first decades of the appearance of the web, these tools need regulations and standards. Such can benefit individuals and small communities in the current chaotic spatial data-sharing environment controlled by the central bodies.

Extreme precipitation can trigger various natural hazards, causing catastrophic losses worldwide. As global warming accelerates, it is widely acknowledged that extreme precipitation will become more frequent and intense, calling for more accurate historical and projected precipitation estimation. Identifying extreme precipitation events is understudied particularly on the global scale, given that most studies only focus on pixel-by-pixel characteristics while ignoring the space-time continuity and evolution of extreme events. This study utilizes an object-based tracking method to track the precipitation system objects in time, extracting spatiotemporal attributes of precipitation events and investigates variable definitions of extremes for a better understanding of the performance of existing precipitation datasets. Five satellite and two reanalysis precipitation products (IMERG, GSMaP, PERSIANN-CCS, TRMM 3B42, CMORPH, ERA5, and ERA-Interim) are involved to investigate (1) the difference and similarity of those datasets in depicting the global pattern of extreme precipitation, (2) the impact of various definitions of extreme events, and (3) the trend of global extreme precipitation events. Results show that the object-based method can capture the motion of precipitation events. Different extreme definitions have a large impact on the distribution, trend, and features of extreme precipitation. The inter-comparison of extreme precipitation events from different products shows low correlation, indicating that accurately capturing the evolution of extreme events is still challenging. Reanalysis product-based analysis shows variable trends (magnitudes and signs) based on different attributes of precipitation objects and notable scale effect. Satellite precipitation products exhibit distinct inter-annual variability which could affect their hydrometeorological applications. In summary, this study leverages the object-based tracking method for comprehensive extreme precipitation analysis from the multi-dataset, multi-scale, and multi-definition perspectives, which can advance the understanding of the status and trend of global extreme precipitation.

Method-level comments are critical for improving code comprehension and supporting software maintenance. With advancements in large language models (LLMs), automated comment generation has become a major research focus. However, existing approaches often overlook method dependencies, where one method relies on or calls others, affecting comment quality and code understandability. This study investigates the prevalence and impact of dependent methods in software projects and introduces a dependency-aware approach for method-level comment generation. Analyzing a dataset of 10 popular Java GitHub projects, we found that dependent methods account for 69.25% of all methods and exhibit higher engagement and change proneness compared to independent methods. Across 448K dependent and 199K independent methods, we observed that state-of-the-art fine-tuned models (e.g., CodeT5+, CodeBERT) struggle to generate comprehensive comments for dependent methods, a trend also reflected in LLM-based approaches like ASAP. To address this, we propose HelpCOM, a novel dependency-aware technique that incorporates helper method information to improve comment clarity, comprehensiveness, and relevance. Experiments show that HelpCOM outperforms baseline methods by 5.6% to 50.4% across syntactic (e.g., BLEU), semantic (e.g., SentenceBERT), and LLM-based evaluation metrics. A survey of 156 software practitioners further confirms that HelpCOM significantly improves the comprehensibility of code involving dependent methods, highlighting its potential to enhance documentation, maintainability, and developer productivity in large-scale systems.

Switzerland plans to restore 4000 km of rivers by 2090. Despite the immense investment costs, river restoration benefits have not been valued in monetary terms, and a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) does not exist for any river restoration project in Switzerland. We apply stated preference methods to elicit public preferences and willingness to pay for restoring two specific but representative river sites. The benefits of restoration are compared with its costs. Upscaling the results to the national level shows that the government budget allocated for river restoration (CHF 1200/m) is insufficient to cover the costs of local restoration projects. However, the surveyed local populations are willing to pay substantially more for restoring rivers in their area of residence than they are legally obliged to do. The CBA results demonstrate that the benefits outweigh the costs in the two case studies, and hence that restoration efforts are justified from an economic point of view. A sensitivity analysis shows that the main results and conclusions do not change when we change some of the key assumptions underlying the CBA.

To complement several community-based projects on water monitoring and management, a research project was completed to characterize the consumption of water and identify the perception of water for Indigenous communities from the Northwest Territories (NWT) and Yukon (YT). As part of a larger research program, data on water consumption and perceptions were available from surveys and a focus group. The focus group was conducted with Elders in an on-the-land camp setting in the NWT. The consumption of water in winter was 0.9L/day on average (including tea and coffee). Of the 81% of respondents who reported consuming water in the previous 24-hours of the survey, 33% drank more bottled water than tap water. About 2% of respondents consumed water from the land (during the winter season). Chlorine smell was the main limiting factor reported to the consumption of tap water. Findings from the focus group suggested Indigenous knowledge might impact both the perception and consumption of water. People are recommended to “make water your drink of choice”. But, our findings indicate that several factors can prevent people from drinking water. We will present the water issues, the collaborative methods used in our project, as well as key findings.

Boreal forests harbor as much carbon (C) as the atmosphere and significant amounts of organic nitrogen (N), the nutrient most likely to limit plant productivity in high-latitude ecosystems. In the boreal biome, the primary disturbance is wildfire, which consumes plant biomass and soil material, emits greenhouse gasses, and influences long-term C and N cycling. Climate warming and drying is increasing wildfire severity and frequency and is combusting more soil organic matter (SOM). Combustion of surface SOM exposes deeper older layers of accumulated soil material that previously escaped combustion during past fires, here termed legacy SOM. Postfire SOM decomposition and nutrient availability are determined by these layers, but the drivers of legacy SOM decomposition are unknown. We collected soils from plots after the largest fire year on record in the Northwest Territories, Canada, in 2014. We used radiocarbon dating to measure ?14C (soil age index), soil extractions to quantify N pools and microbial biomass, and a 90-day laboratory incubation to measure the potential rate of element mineralization and understand patterns and drivers of legacy SOM C decomposition and N availability. We discovered that bulk soil C age predicted C decomposition, where cumulatively, older soil (approximately ?450.0‰) produced 230% less C during the incubation than younger soil (~0.0‰). Soil age also predicted C turnover times, with old soil turnover 10 times slower than young soil. We found respired C was younger than bulk soil C, indicating most C enters and leaves relatively quickly, while the older portion remains a stable C sink. Soil age and other indices were unrelated to N availability, but microbial biomass influenced N availability, with more microbial biomass immobilizing soil N pools. Our results stress the importance of legacy SOM as a stable C sink and highlight that soil age drives the pace and magnitude of soil C contributions to the atmosphere between wildfires

Izbicki, B., Walker, X.J., Baltzer, J.L., Day, N.J., Ebert, C., Johnstone, J.F., Pegoraro, E., Schuur, E.G., Turetsky, M.R., Mack, M.C. (2023) Drivers of Legacy Soil Organic Matter Decomposition after Fire in Boreal Forests. Ecosphere 14(11): e4672. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4672 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4672 Incubation data and code (Izbicki, 2023) are available from Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8034712. Stand and plot-level data are available from NASA ABoVE: https://daac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/dsviewer.pl?ds_id=1664

Drivers of Legacy Soil Organic Matter Decomposition after Fire in Boreal Forests

Droughts exert widespread impacts on both natural and social systems, and there is accumulating evidence that this situation may worsen in the context of global warming. Despite the importance of assessing changes in droughts to understand their potential future impacts on society, studies are unevenly distributed worldwide. In this study, utilizing bias-corrected CMIP6 simulations and a standard precipitation-evaporation index based approach, we quantified expected changes in future drought properties across 735 Brazilian catchments under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Beyond evaluating the statistical properties of future droughts, we assessed their occurrence under both land use and water demand perspectives and propose a new framework to better understand their link with changes in long- and short-term conditions of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Our results indicate that drought events are projected to become more frequent and severe in the future, with high CMIP6 model agreement. According to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, at least half of Brazilian cropland and pasture areas will experience an increase of over 30% in drought properties by the end of the century. Furthermore, among the 85% of catchments expected to experience more severe droughts, nearly 90% are also projected to exhibit increased water demand, which will likely exacerbate future water scarcity. The investigation of the relationship between droughts changes and climate variables suggests that catchments with augmented droughts in the future will likely exhibit increased long-term average PET and P-variability, but not necessarily long-term average P . For instance, over 50% of evaluated Brazilian catchments are expected to experience an intensification of drought properties even with increases in Pmean . We believe this study may contribute (a) to improve Brazilian water resiliency by helping achieve the objectives of the National Water Security Plan and (b) to deepen our understanding of droughts in an uncertain future.

GWF-Paradigm Shift in Downscaling Climate Model Projections|

Drylines are atmospheric boundaries separating dry from moist air that can initiate convection. Potential changes in the location, frequency, and characteristics of drylines in future climates are unknown. This study applies a multi-parametric algorithm to objectively identify and characterize the dryline in North America using convection-permitting regional climate model simulations with 4-km horizontal grid spacing for 13-years under a historical and a pseudo-global warming climate projection by the end of the century. The dryline identification is successfully achieved with a set of standardized algorithm parameters across the lee side of the Rocky Mountains from the Canadian Rockies to the Sierra Madres in Mexico. The dryline is present 27% of the days at 00 UTC between April and September in the current climate, with a mean humidity gradient magnitude of 0.16 g−1 kg−1 km−1. The seasonal cycle of drylines peak around April and May in the southern Plains, and in June and July in the northern Plains. In the future climate, the magnitude and frequency of drylines increase 5% and 13%, correspondingly, with a stronger intensification southward. Future drylines strengthen during their peak intensity in the afternoon in the Southern U.S. and Northeast Mexico. Drylines also show increasing intensities in the morning with future magnitudes that are comparable to peak intensities found in the afternoon in the historical climate. Furthermore, an extension of the seasonality of intense drylines could produce end-of-summer drylines that are as strong as mid-summer drylines in the current climate. This might affect the seasonality and the diurnal cycle of convective activity in future climates, challenging weather forecasting and agricultural planning.

ECCC Project: A model-agnostic benchmarking system

GWF-Paradigm Shift in Downscaling Climate Model Projections|

This paper describes ESM-SnowMIP, an international coordinated modelling effort to evaluate current snow schemes, including snow schemes that are included in Earth system models, in a wide variety of settings against local and global observations. The project aims to identify crucial processes and characteristics that need to be improved in snow models in the context of local- and global-scale modelling. A further objective of ESM-SnowMIP is to better quantify snow-related feedbacks in the Earth system. Although it is not part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), ESM-SnowMIP is tightly linked to the CMIP6-endorsed Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison (LS3MIP).

Beavers (Castor canadensis and C. fiber) are expanding in their native range in North America and Eurasia and are expanding their range into urban environments and the Arctic tundra. Outside their natural range, they are also in Southern Patagonia because of historic releases in the fur industry. Given the broad geographical span of this expansion, it is critical to understand and predict the hydrology of beaver-dominated landscapes. Beavers build dams that modify the water balance and modulate streamflow through different flow states, which might result in drought and flood mitigation. To date, four published hydrological models have been developed to predict these impacts; however, these models were unable to represent dam variability and dynamics. In this study, a model specific to beaver dams was developed to predict the impacts of beaver dams on hydrology by including the flow state dynamics and the heterogeneity of dams and ponds. First, through the instrumentation of the montane peatland of Sibbald Fen in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, I determined that flow state changes of beaver dams are dynamic on a much shorter scale than previously documented. The shifts from one flow state to another happen regularly, have limited synchronicity within dam sequences, and can be predicted. In Sibbald, 66% to 80% of the flow state changes coincided with rainfall-runoff triggers and no changes were associated with biota using the dams. Following this flow state dynamic, I then developed an open-source model called BeaverPy in Python to simulate key features of dams and their impact on hydrology. Five single flow states and mixed combinations were included to identify their dynamics using a vector-based modeling approach, which accounted for changes in dam structures. Simulating individual and in-sequence dams from Sibbald Fen demonstrated that BeaverPy successfully models streamflow modulation by beaver dams, water storage in ponds, and flow state changes. Metrics for simulated vs. measured behavior for streamflow showed a good agreement in root mean squared error (g in beaver-dominated environments, thereby enhancing the understanding of how to incorporate beaver dams into flood mitigation and stream restoration projects and climate change initiatives.

Phosphorus (P) rich runoff from agricultural landscapes are a major contributor to freshwater eutrophication issues. To intercept this runoff before it reaches waterways, vegetated buffer strips (VBS) are often employed at field edges. Over time, sediment and nutrients accumulate at these unmanaged field edges and can become legacy sources of P, representing a source of dissolved P to waterways. In addition, typical non-growing season (NGS) conditions experienced in cold climates favour the release of P from vegetation within VBS, further adding to the potential for these features to contribute to P loads of waterways. Although these sites represent potential sources of P to waterways, it is unclear if the risk of release differs across different regions, or with riparian zone shape/topography or vegetation type. Thus, the aim of this thesis is to measure the variability of P concentrations in VBS soil and vegetation samples across several sites to determine the effects that topography, freezing temperatures, period of inundation, and soil P level have on mechanisms of P retention, mobilization, and transport over the NGS in typical Canadian VBS. Soil and vegetation samples were collected at various topographic locations (up, mid, low slope) from 4 Ontario (moderate winter) and 4 Manitoba (severe winter) VBS sites at the beginning and end of the NGS (Fall of 2020 and Spring of 2021) to measure their water extractable P and plant-available P contents. This analysis was supplemented with in-field hydrologic and temperature data at most sites. Results demonstrate that topography can drive soil P levels but has no effect on vegetation P or on the change of soil or vegetation P concentrations over the NGS due to greater periods of inundation. While the severity of freezing impacted the extractability of vegetation P, it was found that the temperatures applied in the lab were more severe than those experienced in the field due to the presence of snow cover accumulating in ditches. Further analysis on the effects of vegetation management were conducted on frozen soil/vegetation columns extracted from one Ontario site. Those results indicate the efficacy of vegetation harvesting as a means of reducing P losses from runoff through VBS, with the potential to reduce SRP loads by 3 and 10 kg/ha (for lower and upper zones, respectively). To investigate the relationship between vegetation and soil P concentrations more thoroughly and determine if vegetation growing in P-rich soils exhibits greater risk for winter P loss, samples were collected from 2 additional sites with highly elevated soil P due to bunker silo runoff, as part of a pilot study. Results indicate that vegetation P concentrations are independent of soil P concentrations and do not exhibit evidence of luxury P uptake and storage, though further investigation is recommended. This thesis provides an initial investigation into the importance of VBS vegetation to NGS P losses. Future work should design experiments based on the recommendations and lessons learned to further enhance the understanding of vegetation management as a potential VBS best practice for P loss reduction, and to better understand the complex biogeochemical relationships in these systems.

The application of deicing salts causes salinization of receiving waters, including lakes in urban catchments. Salinization of a lake’s water column increases the water density and, consequently, stabilizes the summer stratification and reduces the chemical exchanges between the epilimnion and hypolimnion. The latter translate in longer and more intense periods of hypolimnetic hypoxia that, in turn, accelerate the internal loading of the limiting nutrient phosphorus (P). These effects of salinization are clearly seen in water chemistry data covering the period 2001-2020 for Lake Wilcox, a shallow kettle lake in the greater Toronto metropolitan area that shows symptoms of eutrophication. The data show statistically significant increases with time of the major cations (potassium, sodium, calcium, and magnesium) and anions (chloride, sulfate, and dissolved inorganic carbon), as well as alkalinity. In addition to the changing major water chemistry, the lake is also experiencing an increase in the fraction of total P (TP) present as dissolved inorganic P (DIP), that is, the most bioavailable pool of P. The changing DIP:TP ratio is driven by the salinization-promoted internal P loading rather than changes in the external P inputs from the watershed. We present a simple mass balance model that reproduces the observed chloride concentration trajectory in the lake. We use the model to simulate the impact of future reductions in de-icing applications in the lake’s watershed. With the future model projections, we assess the likelihood of the lake reaching the salinity threshold that would cause the water column to become permanently stratified.

Northern Canada has struggled with various systemic challenges based on Eurocentric ideologies, policies, and practices. A major challenge Indigenous communities face North of the 60th parallel is their food security and sovereignty. Inuit, First Nation and Métis populations across the North experience 5 to 6 times higher levels of food insecurity compared to the National average (Food Secure Canada, 2020). These communities face concentrated levels of food system issues, which connect to other factors, such as, health and wellness, the supply chain of market foods, governance, a shift away from traditional foods, and the impacts of climate change. Climate change has been altering the ecosystems and landscapes throughout the North and are increasing the risks and challenges harvesters face in accessing traditional foods. This project details a collaboration with the Ka’a’gee Tu First Nation (KTFN) located in Kakisa, Northwest Territories (NWT) where community members describe changes and risks observed on the land due to climate change, as well as adaptation and processes to increase harvester safety. A participatory action research framework, including participatory mapping were used as the project approach. Participatory mapping was used as a tool for data gathering, which supported the transfer of place-based storytelling and traditional knowledge, thus identifying important features that connected with harvester safety. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data was used to structure themes: importance of being on the land, climate change (risks & impact), local adaptation, safety measures and visitor safety. These themes coincide and connect with local harvester safety and well-being. Spatial data was created through the mapping process and added into the preexisting digital community map known as, The Ka’a’gee Tu Atlas. The results provided integral, local information for the community’s use in the hopes of maintaining and improving harvester safety while ensuring access towards traditional food sources.

Northern Canada has struggled with various systemic challenges based on Eurocentric ideologies, policies, and practices. A major challenge Indigenous communities face North of the 60th parallel is their food security and sovereignty. Inuit, First Nation and Métis populations across the North experience 5 to 6 times higher levels of food insecurity compared to the National average (Food Secure Canada, 2020). These communities face concentrated levels of food system issues, which connect to other factors, such as, health and wellness, the supply chain of market foods, governance, a shift away from traditional foods, and the impacts of climate change. Climate change has been altering the ecosystems and landscapes throughout the North and are increasing the risks and challenges harvesters face in accessing traditional foods. This project details a collaboration with the Ka’a’gee Tu First Nation (KTFN) located in Kakisa, Northwest Territories (NWT) where community members describe changes and risks observed on the land due to climate change, as well as adaptation and processes to increase harvester safety. A participatory action research framework, including participatory mapping were used as the project approach. Participatory mapping was used as a tool for data gathering, which supported the transfer of place-based storytelling and traditional knowledge, thus identifying important features that connected with harvester safety. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data was used to structure themes: importance of being on the land, climate change (risks & impact), local adaptation, safety measures and visitor safety. These themes coincide and connect with local harvester safety and well-being. Spatial data was created through the mapping process and added into the preexisting digital community map known as, The Ka’a’gee Tu Atlas. The results provided integral, local information for the community’s use in the hopes of maintaining and improving harvester safety while ensuring access towards traditional food sources.

Organic micropollutants (OMPs) in climate change affected natural environment such as wetlands, and engineered systems have brought serious concerns for water security and public health. These issues have increased the demand for better managing water resources and developing effective technologies for aqueous micropollutants removal. This thesis investigated these subjects through the following five sub-research projects. First, boreal peatland was used as a case study for understanding how peatland fires and droughts impacts peatland resilience. Laboratory results suggested that heating and moisture condition, coupled with peat organic hydrophobic transformations, influence peat soil hydrophobicity and the resultant water-extractable pollutant leaching, which potentially threatens peatland downstream receiving waters such as potable waters by high organic loads. Further, post-fire peat chemistry and their mechanistic relationships to leached pollutants (total organic carbon (TOC), nutrients and phenols) were elucidated through a laboratory leaching study. Increased contaminant loading was observed in post-heated peat leachates, suggesting negative effects to water treatment efficiency and an increase of treatment costs to surface waters as potable water source. Next, peat soils damaged from extreme fires and droughts were upcycled for producing high surface area, value-added porous carbons based on a rapid, facile chemical activation approach. This application had the simultaneous benefit of peatland ecological restoration, protecting downstream communities from heavy run-off, and using the sustainable damaged peats for effective environmental remediation though adsorption. Moreover, a critical review of nano-enabled composite membranes for OMP removal (size-exclusion, adsorption, charge interaction, and photo- and electro-catalysis) and their respective benefits and limitations were discussed. This work brought new perspectives for next-generation nanocomposite membranes for OMP removal. Finally, a novel, hyperbranched polyethylenimine (HPEI) crosslinked iron doped reduced graphene oxide (rGO) nanocomposite membrane was synthesized for process-intensified flow-through separation of phenolic micropollutants. Mechanisms and separation performance to phenolic micropollutant and azo dyes were investigated.

Heatwaves pose significant threats to socioeconomic and environmental systems, with their intensity and frequency expected to increase due to climate change. Despite their critical impacts, future heatwaves in Brazil remain underexplored, especially from a human-perceived perspective, which is crucial for assessing potential public health impacts. Here, we propose a method to assess heatwaves using the humidex ()—a climate index that combines temperature and relative humidity to indicate human-perceived heat - alongside traditional temperature-based measures. Using bias-corrected simulations from 10 CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, we quantified projected changes in heatwaves across Brazil. The results indicate that heatwaves will become more severe and prolonged, with greater changes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the end of the century, particularly in the North, Northeast, and Central regions. The magnitude of human-perceived heatwaves is expected to rise faster than temperature-based ones, underscoring the need for public health-focused assessments. CMIP6 models strongly agree on increased future heatwaves, potentially tripling population exposure in most Brazilian states, with the Southeast experiencing greater changes due to its larger population. These events are expected not only to affect more people but also to be more severe, exceeding over 60 days per year of serious danger (H > 45 °C) by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5. Record-shattering events in the historical period are projected to become the norm by mid-century, highlighting the accelerating nature of these extreme events. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering human-perceived heat in climate impact studies and public health planning to mitigate potential impacts. Significance Statement Despite the increasing threat of heatwaves, most studies focus on their climate properties, overlooking human-perceived aspects. This is especially true for Brazil, where heatwaves receive limited attention. This study introduces a novel approach, coupling heatwaves with a heat stress index (H) to evaluate them from a human-perceived perspective. Our results suggest more intense and prolonged heatwaves in the future, with record-breaking events becoming the norm by mid-century. Human-perceived heatwaves are projected to rise faster than climate-based ones, emphasizing the need for public health-focused assessments. These increases are expected to more than triple population exposure in most Brazilian states, with severe events (H > 45 °C) exceeding 60 days per year by the end of the century under the pessimistic scenario.

The project is funded by Global Institute for Water Security.

In an era of rapid climate change, the need for reliable information to support adaptation has never been greater. Changes resulting from warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are influencing snowmelt dynamics, freeze-thaw cycles and basin response. These shifts may transform Canada’s environmental systems in profound and unprecedented ways. The Global Water Futures modelling research was developed to address these evolving challenges, providing insights into how Canada’s major river basins may respond to these changes. This work focuses on the pan-Canadian application of the MESH land-surface hydrology model across the Yukon, Fraser, Columbia, Mackenzie, Nelson, Churchill, Great Lakes-Saint Lawrence, and Saint John Basins, covering more than 5 million square kilometres. The model simulations integrate bias-corrected, downscaled climate projections to explore future scenarios. We detail the innovative workflows and tools developed for this research and present key findings on glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, and shifting river flow regimes. These results underscore the critical need for adaptive, forward-thinking water resource management to build resilience and strengthen the adaptive capacity of Canada’s watersheds.

In an era of rapid climate change, the need for reliable information to support adaptation has never been greater. Changes resulting from warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are influencing snowmelt dynamics, freeze-thaw cycles and basin response. These shifts may transform Canada’s environmental systems in profound and unprecedented ways. The Global Water Futures modelling research was developed to address these evolving challenges, providing insights into how Canada’s major river basins may respond to these changes. This work focuses on the pan-Canadian application of the MESH land-surface hydrology model across the Yukon, Fraser, Columbia, Mackenzie, Nelson, Churchill, Great Lakes-Saint Lawrence, and Saint John Basins, covering more than 5 million square kilometres. The model simulations integrate bias-corrected, downscaled climate projections to explore future scenarios. We detail the innovative workflows and tools developed for this research and present key findings on glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, and shifting river flow regimes. These results underscore the critical need for adaptive, forward-thinking water resource management to build resilience and strengthen the adaptive capacity of Canada’s watersheds.

The evaluation of snowpack models capable of accounting for snow management in ski resorts is a major step towards acceptance of such models in supporting the daily decision-making process of snow production managers. In the framework of the EU Horizon 2020 (H2020) project PROSNOW, a service to enable real-time optimization of grooming and snow-making in ski resorts was developed. We applied snow management strategies integrated in the snowpack simulations of AMUNDSEN, Crocus, and SNOWPACK–Alpine3D for nine PROSNOW ski resorts located in the European Alps. We assessed the performance of the snow simulations for five winter seasons (2015–2020) using both ground-based data (GNSS-measured snow depth) and spaceborne snow maps (Copernicus Sentinel-2). Particular attention has been devoted to characterizing the spatial performance of the simulated piste snow management at a resolution of 10 m. The simulated results showed a high overall accuracy of more than 80 % for snow-covered areas compared to the Sentinel-2 data. Moreover, the correlation to the ground observation data was high. Potential sources for local differences in the snow depth between the simulations and the measurements are mainly the impact of snow redistribution by skiers; compensation of uneven terrain when grooming; or spontaneous local adaptions of the snow management, which were not reflected in the simulations. Subdividing each individual ski resort into differently sized ski resort reference units (SRUs) based on topography showed a slight decrease in mean deviation. Although this work shows plausible and robust results on the ski slope scale by all three snowpack models, the accuracy of the results is mainly dependent on the detailed representation of the real-world snow management practices in the models. As snow management assessment and prediction systems get integrated into the workflow of resort managers, the formulation of snow management can be refined in the future.

Gold mining operations near Yellowknife (Northwest Territories, Canada) released vast quantities of arsenic trioxide during the 1950s, which dispersed across the landscape. Contemporary measurements of arsenic concentrations in lake water and surficial sediment identify enrichment within a 30 km radius. However, paleolimnological studies have identified possible evidence of mining influence during the 1950s at a lake beyond this distance, suggesting a more expansive legacy footprint may exist. Here, we analyze spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic, antimony, and lead deposition from sediment cores at lakes located 10–40 km (near-field) and 50–80 km (far-field) from the mines along the prevailing northwesterly wind direction (NW) and 20–40 km to the northeast (NE) of the mines to improve characterization of the legacy footprint of emissions. We build upon previous findings to determine if: 1) there is evidence of mine-related pollutants beyond the well-established 30 km radius and 2) enrichment is greatest in the prevailing wind direction, as expected for aerial dispersion from a point source of emissions. Results demonstrate enrichment since the 1950s for arsenic and antimony at least as far as 80 km to the NW and 40 km to the NE, thus legacy deposition extended beyond the currently defined 30 km radius ‘zone of immediate influence’. Concentrations, enrichment factors, and total excess inventories of arsenic and antimony decline with distance from the mines and are greater along the prevailing (NW) than orthogonal (NE) wind direction. Peak concentrations in uppermost sediment strata at near-field lakes in the prevailing wind direction suggest supply of arsenic and antimony remains high from legacy stores in the catchment and lake sediment profiles >60 years after emissions were released. Such lasting influence of legacy emissions likely is not limited to mines in the Yellowknife region, and paleolimnological approaches can effectively delineate zones of past and ongoing pollution from legacy sources elsewhere.

Jasiak, I., Wiklund, J. A., Leclerc, E., Telford, J. V., Couture, R. M., Venkiteswaran, J. J., Hall, R, I., & Wolfe, B. B. (2021). Evaluating spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic, antimony, and lead deposition from legacy gold mine emissions using lake sediment records. Applied Geochemistry, 105053. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2021.105053

Evaluating spatiotemporal patterns of arsenic, antimony, and lead deposition from legacy gold mine emissions using lake sediment records

In Canada, construction companies are facing disruptions to their operations due to bad or extreme weather conditions such as thunderstorms, heavy precipitation, flooding, heatwaves and snowstorms, which cause project delays, loss of productivity and increased financial costs. This sector is prone to more disruptions due to increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events due to future climate change. This study examined the impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure development companies and investigated their current practices and actions to alleviate these impacts. A survey questionnaire was developed and administrated to owners, managers, engineers, supervisors and planners of construction companies. Apart from descriptive evaluations, the survey responses were quantitatively analyzed to determine the impact of bad weather conditions on the construction companies. The findings of this study suggested that most construction companies’ operations were delayed due to bad or extreme weather events. However, construction industry is not adopting proactive measures to avoid or minimize these impacts. The main environmental factors impacting construction companies, included flooding, high winds or thunderstorms, warm/cold temperatures, heatwaves and snow/ice storms. These bad weather impacts were more significant for non-government construction companies as compared to those working in the government sector. Indirect impacts of bad weather included disruptions to their supply chain networks and changes in customer behaviors; however, these impacts were minor compared to direct environmental impacts. The study found that both government and non-government sector construction companies granted accommodations to the workers during bad weather conditions; however, government sector companies were more accommodating as compared to non-government companies. The study results also provided insight into the financial impacts of extreme weather events on construction companies. Weighted average losses for government sector companies were $2,200 per day of bad weather as compared to $8,155 per day for non-government companies. This suggested that non-government construction companies may experience serious financial consequences due to bad or extreme weather events. Study results further showed that there were no adequate guidelines, protocols or standards available to construction companies to adapt their operations and planning for extreme weather events. The study also highlighted the lack of adequate insurance products available for the construction sector to deal with bad weather. There was little tendency shown by the construction companies to use new technologies to deal with bad weather conditions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop guidelines, protocols or standards for construction companies by involving all levels of the government and relevant private sector organizations. This study helps to determine the nature and scale of extreme weather impacts on construction industry and explores what strategies may be developed to alleviate these impacts and risks. Such knowledge will help companies better plan and manage their operations and effectively use their human resources. It will help in timely delivery of services and savings in costs by the infrastructure development companies, which are a major contributor to the Canadian economy.

Transdisciplinary researchers collaborate with diverse partners outside of academia to tackle sustainability problems. The patterns and practices of social interaction and the contextual nature of transdisciplinary research result in different performance expectations than traditional, curiosity-driven research. Documenting patterns of interaction can inform project success and affirm progress toward interim outcomes on the way to achieve sustainability impacts. Yet providing credible and robust indicators of research activity remains challenging. We provide quantitative and qualitative indicators for assessing transdisciplinary practices and patterns through social network analysis (SNA). Our assessment developed four criteria to reveal how SNA metrics provide insight into (1) diversity of participants; (2) whether and how integration and collaboration are occurring, (3) the relative degrees of network stability and fragility, and (4) how the network is structured to achieve its goals. These four key criteria can be used to help identify patterns of research activity and determine whether interim progress is occurring.

Hydrometeorological events have been the predominant type of natural hazards to affect communities across Canada. While climate change is a concern to all Canadians, Indigenous communities in Canada have been disproportionately more affected by these extreme climate events than non-Indigenous communities. As the impacts of climate change intensify, it becomes increasingly important that high-resolution climate services are made available to Indigenous decision makers for the development of climate change adaptation plans. This paper examined extreme climate trends in the Six Nations of the Grand River reserve, the most populated Indigenous community in Canada. A set of 12 indices were used to evaluate changes in extreme climate events from 1951 to 2013, and 2006 to 2099 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Results indicated that from 1951 to 2013, Six Nations became warmer and wetter with an average temperature increase of 0.7 °C and precipitation increase of 42 mm. Over this period, the frequency and duration of extreme heat and extreme precipitation events also increased, while extreme cold events decreased. In the future (2006 to 2099), temperature is expected to increase by 3 to 6 °C, while seasonal precipitation is expected to increase in winter, early spring, and fall. Projected rate of increase of heatwaves is 0.4 to 1.5 days per year and extreme annual rainfall events is 0.2 to 0.5 mm per year under both RCP scenarios. The climate information and data provide by this study will help Six Nations’ decision makers in planning for climate change impacts.

Deen, T. A., Arain, M. A., Champagne, O., Chow-Fraser, P., Nagabhatla, N., & Martin-Hill, D. (2021). Evaluation of observed and projected extreme climate trends for decision making in Six Nations of the Grand River, Canada. CLIMATE SERVICES, 24: 100263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100263.

Evaluation of observed and projected extreme climate trends for decision making in Six Nations of the Grand River, Canada

Extreme temperature is a major threat to urban populations; thus, it is crucial to understand future changes to plan adaptation and mitigation strategies. We assess historical and CMIP6 projected trends of minimum and maximum temperatures for the 18 most populated Canadian cities. Temperatures increase (on average 0.3°C/decade) in all cities during the historical period (1979–2014), with Prairie cities exhibiting lower rates (0.06°C/decade). Toronto (0.5°C/decade) and Montreal (0.7°C/decade) show high increasing trends in the observation period. Higher-elevation cities, among those with the same population, show slower increasing temperature rates compared to the coastal ones. Projections for cities in the Prairies show 12% more summer days compared to the other regions. The number of heat waves (HWs) increases for all cities, in both the historical and future periods; yet alarming increases are projected for Vancouver, Victoria, and Halifax from no HWs in the historical period to approximately 4 HWs/year on average, towards the end of 2100 for the SSP5–8.5. The cold waves reduce considerably for all cities in the historical period at a rate of 2 CWs/decade on average and are projected to further reduce by 50% compared to the observed period.

Examining Environmental Gradients in permafrost regions - achievements of the ESA DUE GlobPermafrost project and first results from ESA CCI+ Permafrost

The Fraser River basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in Western 10 North America, and is home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in June-July. However, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below- or near-normal SWE years, some of which 15 have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute more 20 than 70% of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWEmax), soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB) and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more 25 localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWEmax (which strongly controls the annual maximum of soil moisture), the snowmelt rate, the ENSO and PDO indices, and rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWEmax are the most influential predictors of APF magnitude in the FRB and its subbasins. The identification of these controls on annual peak flows in the region may be of use in the context of seasonal prediction or future projected streamflow behavior.

noproject,submitted

The Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in western North America, and home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in May–July. Nevertheless, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below- or near-normal SWE years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute nearly 70 % of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWEmax), soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB) and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation – ENSO) on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWEmax (univariate Spearman correlation with APF of ρ^ = 0.64; 0.70 (observations; VIC simulation)), the snowmelt rate (ρ^ = 0.43 in VIC), the ENSO and PDO indices (ρ^ = −0.40; −0.41) and (ρ^ = −0.35; −0.38), respectively, and rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWEmax (ρ^ = 0.26; 0.38), are the most influential predictors of APF magnitude in the FRB and its subbasins. The identification of these controls on annual peak flows in the region may be of use in understanding seasonal predictions or future projected streamflow changes.

The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.

GWF-Paradigm Shift in Downscaling Climate Model Projections|

A software release note is one of the essential documents in the software development life cycle. The software release contains a set of information, e.g., bug fixes and security fixes. Release notes are used in different phases, e.g., requirement engineering, software testing and release management. Different types of practitioners (e.g., project managers and clients) get benefited from the release notes to understand the overview of the latest release. As a result, several studies have been done about release notes production and usage in practice. However, two significant problems (e.g., duplication and inconsistency in release notes contents) exist in producing well-written & well-structured release notes and organizing appropriate information regarding different targeted users' needs. For that reason, practitioners face difficulties in writing and reading the release notes using existing tools. To mitigate these problems, we execute two different studies in our paper. First, we execute an exploratory study by analyzing 3,347 release notes of 21 GitHub repositories to understand the documented contents of the release notes. As a result, we find relevant key artifacts, e.g., issues (29%), pull-requests (32%), commits (19%), and common vulnerabilities and exposures (CVE) issues (6%) in the release note contents. Second, we conduct a survey study with 32 professionals to understand the key information that is included in release notes regarding users' roles. For example, project managers are more interested in learning about new features than less critical bug fixes. Our study can guide future research directions to help practitioners produce the release notes with relevant content and improve the documentation quality.

Objective: The purpose of the current study was to explore the acceptability and feasibility of a resilience-focused mobile application, JoyPop™, for use with Indigenous youth. Methods: A Haudenosaunee community-based research advisory committee co-developed the research project, in accordance with OCAP™ principles. Adopting a mixed-method approach, five youths from an immersion school used the JoyPop™ app for four consecutive weeks, as well as completed pre-test questions and weekly usage surveys. Most participants also completed post-test questions and a semi-structured interview. Based on a semi-structured interview protocol, youth responded to questions, and the most common themes were categorized to capture the experience of using the app. Results: All youth reported a positive impression, used the app daily, found it easy to navigate, and indicated that they would recommend it to a friend. All features were uniformly positively endorsed. There were features that youth used most often (Deep Breathing, “SquareMoves” game, and Art features) and moderately (Rate My Mood, Journaling, and SleepEase). The social connection feature, Circle of Trust, was least utilized, with youth reporting a preference for in-person problem-solving. The drop-down menu of crisis helplines was not used. Youth recommended more gaming options. In terms of cultural resonance, appreciation for the app's use of water sounds in the SleepEase feature was expressed, as was cultural consistency with the “Good Mind” perspective. Recommendations included additional nature sounds, Indigenous design elements, the inclusion of Native language words, and traditional stories. Discussion: The JoyPop™ app was positively received by Six Nations youth, and ways to ensure its cultural appropriateness were identified. Moving forward, it is recommended that Indigenous designers create a new version with community design co-creation. Additional research with various groups of Indigenous youth is warranted as a pan-Indigenous approach is not recommended.

This paper describes the formation of, and initial results for, a new FLUXNET coordination network for ecosystem-scale methane (CH4) measurements at 60 sites globally, organized by the Global Carbon Project in partnership with other initiatives and regional flux tower networks. The objectives of the effort are presented along with an overview of the coverage of eddy covariance (EC) CH4 flux measurements globally, initial results comparing CH4 fluxes across the sites, and future research directions and needs. Annual estimates of net CH4 fluxes across sites ranged from −0.2 ± 0.02 g C m–2 yr–1 for an upland forest site to 114.9 ± 13.4 g C m–2 yr–1 for an estuarine freshwater marsh, with fluxes exceeding 40 g C m–2 yr–1 at multiple sites. Average annual soil and air temperatures were found to be the strongest predictor of annual CH4 flux across wetland sites globally. Water table position was positively correlated with annual CH4 emissions, although only for wetland sites that were not consistently inundated throughout the year. The ratio of annual CH4 fluxes to ecosystem respiration increased significantly with mean site temperature. Uncertainties in annual CH4 estimates due to gap-filling and random errors were on average ±1.6 g C m–2 yr–1 at 95% confidence, with the relative error decreasing exponentially with increasing flux magnitude across sites. Through the analysis and synthesis of a growing EC CH4 flux database, the controls on ecosystem CH4 fluxes can be better understood, used to inform and validate Earth system models, and reconcile differences between land surface model- and atmospheric-based estimates of CH4 emissions.

Linking software features to code components is commonly performed during software development and maintenance, including to implement a feature, document code, design test cases, trace requirements, track changes, and support inspection of safety–critical software by government and other third parties. However, manually mapping features to code is error-prone and time consuming, even for developers familiar with a system. To overcome these challenges several studies proposed automated techniques to reduce human intervention when linking features to code components. Nonetheless, three challenges remain: (i) accuracy, (ii) cost, and (iii) explainability. Linking of irrelevant code snippets causes an extra burden of analyses. If the approach lacks explainability, then a tool is less useful for many crucial systems such as safety–critical software. Moreover, heavyweight techniques such as those that require generating execution traces of every scenario or require training deep-learning models are costly and limit small companies from integrating them into their development process. We propose a contextual thematic approach that extracts the most relevant theme properties of the feature/requirement to address the aforementioned challenges. Our experiments with two proprietary projects reveal significant enhancement of performance (precision and F1 scores are more than 50% in ideal cases) in linking features to three abstractions of code components, i.e., modules, classes, and methods. Our approach is also capable of linking commits to issues in a promising way. Contextual theme extraction enhances the subjective explainability which has not yet been solved with existing approaches. Moreover, we extract several critical characteristics of the feature documents and code structures that are important to consider in both manual and automated techniques. Finally, we present the FSECAM tool for linking features to code components, which can be immediately deployed within the development process and used without much effort and cost in linking code components and commits. Editor’s note: Open Science material was validated by the Journal of Systems and Software Open Science Board.

Recent advances in various domains have led to a data explosion, which has created many significant scientific discovery opportunities. Therefore, researchers need systems that allow them to analyze data efficiently. Scientific Workflow Management Systems (SWfMS) such as Galaxy, Taverna, Kepler and, VizSciFlow are popular software among researchers for data-intensive experiments. Advances in other domains have led to the increasing complexity of the experiments and the demand for collaboration between scientists. Many scientific experiments require scientists from different domains to work collaboratively toward addressing a problem. Very few of the existing SWfMSs such as ProveDB, SciWorCS, Workspace, support collaboration but in many cases, their method are not efficient. Researchers can share their work in existing collaborative data analysis systems, meaning all the collaborators must work on a single version of the workflow, which increases the chance of potential interference as the number of collaborators grows. Furthermore, when collaborators join an experiment, to contribute effectively, they require information about the project’s status, such as the history of its changes and current problems. Existing SWfMSs neither offer this insight nor provide group awareness in an asynchronous setting. The first contribution of this work is that we provide tools to facilitate collaborative workflow composition in the context of SWfMS. With this aim, we simulated some standard concepts of version control systems (VCS e.g., Github), such as branching and versioning in SWfMSs. As a proof of concept of collaborative features, we developed an API capable of capturing the provenance information and managing the branches and versions of the workflow. As the second contribution, we propose a set of visualizations and reports in order to provide the information collaborators require when joining a project or continuing to collaborate with added efficiency. We capture the system event’s log, also known as provenance information, during workflow composition and execution phases, and using such data, we generate the visualizations and reports. Before implementing the visualizations, we created a demo of our work and surveyed potential users to discover how much our proposed visualizations could contribute to group awareness. Moreover, we asked to what extent the proposed version control system could help address shortcomings in collaborative experiments. We invited programmers and researchers who had experience using SWfMSs, and domain specialists from associated areas to participate in our study. We selected particular roles due to the relevance of their experience to our research topic. Twelve individuals participated in the survey. They provided valuable feedback about improving the proposed collaborative tools and what other kinds of visualizations they would need as potential users. 70% of the participants found the proposed tools are beneficial for collaborative workflow composition.

Recent advances in various domains have led to a data explosion, which has created many significant scientific discovery opportunities. Therefore, researchers need systems that allow them to analyze data efficiently. Scientific Workflow Management Systems (SWfMS) such as Galaxy, Taverna, Kepler and, VizSciFlow are popular software among researchers for data-intensive experiments. Advances in other domains have led to the increasing complexity of the experiments and the demand for collaboration between scientists. Many scientific experiments require scientists from different domains to work collaboratively toward addressing a problem. Very few of the existing SWfMSs such as ProveDB, SciWorCS, Workspace, support collaboration but in many cases, their method are not efficient. Researchers can share their work in existing collaborative data analysis systems, meaning all the collaborators must work on a single version of the workflow, which increases the chance of potential interference as the number of collaborators grows. Furthermore, when collaborators join an experiment, to contribute effectively, they require information about the project’s status, such as the history of its changes and current problems. Existing SWfMSs neither offer this insight nor provide group awareness in an asynchronous setting. The first contribution of this work is that we provide tools to facilitate collaborative workflow composition in the context of SWfMS. With this aim, we simulated some standard concepts of version control systems (VCS e.g., Github), such as branching and versioning in SWfMSs. As a proof of concept of collaborative features, we developed an API capable of capturing the provenance information and managing the branches and versions of the workflow. As the second contribution, we propose a set of visualizations and reports in order to provide the information collaborators require when joining a project or continuing to collaborate with added efficiency. We capture the system event’s log, also known as provenance information, during workflow composition and execution phases, and using such data, we generate the visualizations and reports. Before implementing the visualizations, we created a demo of our work and surveyed potential users to discover how much our proposed visualizations could contribute to group awareness. Moreover, we asked to what extent the proposed version control system could help address shortcomings in collaborative experiments. We invited programmers and researchers who had experience using SWfMSs, and domain specialists from associated areas to participate in our study. We selected particular roles due to the relevance of their experience to our research topic. Twelve individuals participated in the survey. They provided valuable feedback about improving the proposed collaborative tools and what other kinds of visualizations they would need as potential users. 70% of the participants found the proposed tools are beneficial for collaborative workflow composition.

Clarifying how increased atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) contributes to accelerated land carbon sequestration remains important since this process is the largest negative feedback in the coupled carbon–climate system. Here, we constrain the sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon sink to eCO2 over the temperate Northern Hemisphere for the past five decades, using 12 terrestrial ecosystem models and data from seven CO2 enrichment experiments. This constraint uses the heuristic finding that the northern temperate carbon sink sensitivity to eCO2 is linearly related to the site-scale sensitivity across the models. The emerging data-constrained eCO2 sensitivity is 0.64 ± 0.28 PgC yr−1 per hundred ppm of eCO2. Extrapolating worldwide, this northern temperate sensitivity projects the global terrestrial carbon sink to increase by 3.5 ± 1.9 PgC yr−1 for an increase in CO2 of 100 ppm. This value suggests that CO2 fertilization alone explains most of the observed increase in global land carbon sink since the 1960s. More CO2 enrichment experiments, particularly in boreal, arctic and tropical ecosystems, are required to explain further the responsible processes.

Food Frequency Questionnaires (FFQ) are surveys used to assess dietary behaviour and to estimate the frequency and the composition of specific foods or groups of food [1]. One challenge encountered in epidemiological studies on diet has been the unreliability of dietary intake; FFQs are generally designed to assess the ranking of intakes but not to provide an absolute estimate of intake [1]. However, the simplicity in administering FFQs and their cost-effectiveness are strong advantages. As such, FFQs have been used in previous projects for traditional food consumption assessment and nutrient intake estimation [2–8], and in some cases to estimate contaminant intakes [9–11]. While traditional foods are part of healthy living, the consumption of these foods may contribute significantly to human exposure to numerous contaminants, including mercury and cadmium, especially for northern populations [12]. Elevated levels of mercury and cadmium were reported in several wild-harvested fish species and moose organs (e.g., liver and kidney) in the Northwest Territories (NWT). Accordingly, the Government of the NWT Department of Health and Social Services disseminated this information to the public via the release of a series of consumption notices [13]. These notices recommend limiting the consumption of locally harvested moose liver and kidney from the South Mackenzie Mountain, as well as several fish species (according to waterbody and fish length). However, traditional foods are an important source of nutrients and are associated with an improved nutrition status [7,14], which may aid in increasing food security for Indigenous people in Canada. Therefore, to better understand the public health challenges posed by contaminants in traditional food, a community-based human biomonitoring project Contaminant Biomonitoring in the Northwest Territories Mackenzie Valley was implemented in nine First Nations communities of the NWT. The aim of this biomonitoring project was to assess contaminant exposures, nutrition markers, and the role of traditional foods in participating communities in the Mackenzie Valley, NWT [15,16]. As part of this project, participants completed a pair of foods surveys (i.e., 24-h recall, FFQ). As part of the larger project, the objective of the research reported here was to refine and implement an FFQ to estimate dietary consumption of environmental contaminants through traditional foods for Indigenous communities in the Sahtú and Dehcho regions in the NWT. This research consisted of: 1) using multiple focus groups to refine the food list and question format used in the FFQ, 2) implementing the refined survey in nine communities of the Dehcho and Sahtú regions for which food consumption patterns are presented below.

Seasonal snow cover is important in shaping ecosystem carbon uptake across many regions of the world, however forest responses to projected declines in snowpack remain uncertain. We studied the response of forest gross primary productivity (GPP) during the photosynthetically active season to interannual and spatial variability in snow water equivalent (SWE), timing of snowmelt, and length of the active season. We combined carbon flux and weather data from 14 temperate deciduous and evergreen forests in the US and southeast Canada with SWE and precipitation from the Snow Data Assimilation System to test these hypotheses: 1) earlier snowmelt leads to a longer active season; 2) a longer active season is associated with higher total GPP, and 3) GPP during the active season is dependent on peak SWE and timing of snowmelt the previous winter. Regression and correlation analyses did not reveal meaningful environmental predictors of interannual variability in GPP, so linear mixed effects models were used to analyze broader scale spatiotemporal patterns. We found that active season length was negatively correlated with total active season GPP in forests with drier summers on average (based on mean annual summer climatic water deficit), but positively correlated in areas with typically wetter summers. The magnitude of these effects decreased at forests with a higher percentage of annual precipitation falling as snow. Our results showed that the capacity for plants to gain more carbon during a longer active season appears to be dependent on soil water status determined by long-term climate, rather than interannual fluctuations in weather. We found no evidence that the magnitude of total snowfall or peak SWE had a legacy effect on subsequent active season GPP. Finally, we highlight that there was large interannual variability both within and between sites that was not well explained by seasonal climate or phenology.

Flow management has the potential to significantly affect ecosystem condition. Shallow lakes in arid regions are especially susceptible to flow management changes, which can have important implications for the formation of cyanobacterial blooms. Here, we reveal water quality shifts associated with changing source water inflow management. Using in situ monitoring data, we studied a seven-year time span during which inflows to a shallow, eutrophic drinking water reservoir transitioned from primarily natural landscape runoff (2014–2015) to managed flows from a larger upstream reservoir (Lake Diefenbaker; 2016–2020) and identified significant changes in cyanobacteria (as phycocyanin) using generalized additive models to classify cyanobacterial bloom formation. We then connected changes in water source with shifts in chemistry and the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms using principal components analysis. Phycocyanin was greater in years with managed reservoir inflow from a mesotrophic upstream reservoir (2016–2020), but dissolved organic matter (DOM) and specific conductivity, important determinants of drinking water quality, were greatest in years when landscape runoff dominated lake water source (2014–2015). Most notably, despite changing rapidly, it took multiple years for lake water to return to a consistent and reduced level of DOM after managed inflows from the upstream reservoir were resumed, an observation that underscores how resilience may be hindered by weak resistance to change and slow recovery. Environmental flows for water quality are rarely defined, yet we show that trade-offs exist between poor water quality via elevated conductivity and DOM and higher bloom risk, depending on water source. Our work highlights the importance of source water quality, not just quantity, to water security, and our findings have important implications for water managers who must protect ecosystem services while adapting to projected hydroclimatic change.

Hould Gosselin, G. (2022) From microbiology to fluxes: a nested measurement program in the forest-tundra ecotone of northwestern Canada. Q-Arctic annual project meeting.

Q-Arctic annual project meeting

Helgason, W. (2019). Future Hydrology and Water Supply for Irrigation in Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan Irrigation Projects Association. Moose Jaw, SK. December, 2019. Conference Presentation

Saskatchewan Irrigation Projects Association. Moose Jaw, SK. December, 2019

In western North America, many communities rely on runoff from mountain snowpacks. Projections of how future climate change will affect the seasonal snowpack are thus of interest to water managers, communities and policy makers. We investigate projected changes in seasonal snow cover for the twenty-first century for the Canadian portion of the Columbia River Basin using a physically based snow distribution model (SnowModel) at 500 m horizontal resolution. Forcing data for the reference (1979–1994) and future (2045–2059, 2085–2099) periods originate from a 4-member initial condition ensemble of global Community Earth System Model (CESM1) simulations based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The ensemble was dynamically downscaled (DD) to 10 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). We also evaluate the performance of SnowModel using publicly available, statistically downscaled (SD) temperature and precipitation. We project a 38%/28% and 30%/15% decrease in WRF/SD-simulated snow depth and SWE, respectively, by the end of this century relative to the reference period over the entire domain. Our results indicate that the projected loss of snowpack depends largely on elevation and season. Snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) are most affected for elevations below 2000 m asl, with a reduction of more than 60%. While both simulations show SWE losses in most areas by the end of the century, a stronger projected thinning of the snowpack occurs for the DD-forced simulations compared to the SD-forced simulations.

The Hudson Bay basin is a large contributor of freshwater input in the Arctic Ocean and is also an area affected by destructive spring floods. In this study, the hydrological model MESH (Modelisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and hydrology) was set up for the Groundhog River watershed situated in the Hudson Bay basin, to simulate the future evolution of streamflow and annual maximum streamflow. MESH was forced by meteorological data from ERA5 reanalyses in the historical period (1979–2018) and 12 models of the Coupled model intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) downscaled with the Canadian Regional Climate model version 5 (CRCM5) in historical (1979–2005) and scenario period (2006–2098). The projections consistently indicate an earlier spring flow and a reduction in the amount of annual maximum streamflow by the end of the 21st century. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the annual maximum streamflow occurring in the spring is expected to be advanced by 2 weeks and reduced on average from 852 m3/s (±265) in the historical period (1979–2018) to 717m3/s (±250) by the end of the 21st century (2059–2098). Because the seasonal projection of streamflow was not investigated in previous studies, this work is an important first step to assess the seasonal change of streamflow in the Hudson Bay region under climate change.