Regression-based probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts for North American river basins
Section 1: Overview
Name of Research Project
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Related Project
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Part
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Core Modelling and Forecasting Team
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HF
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Program Affiliations
Related Research Project(s)
Dataset Title
Regression-based probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts for North American river basins
Additional Information
Creators and Contributors
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Louise Arnal | Point of Contact, Principal Investigator | louise.arnal@usask.ca | University of Saskatchewan |
Martyn Clark | Collaborator | martyn.clark@usask.ca | University of Saskatchewan |
Vincent Vionnet | Collaborator | | Environment and Climate Change Canada |
Abstract
Purpose
This project supports the hydrological forecasting theme of the GWF Core Modelling and Forecasting Team. As part of the Global Water Futures project, the computational hydrology group builds tools to simulate and predict hydrologic processes. This work focuses on the last point and aims to:
-Set up a North America-wide sub-seasonal to seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system
-Assess the predictability of streamflow on seasonal timescales across North America
Plain Language Summary
Using information about the amount of snow in winter, we make scientific predictions of the river flow in North American rivers for the following spring to summer months. These predictions can give an early indication of the likelihood of a high or low flow event (e.g. floods or droughts).
A partir d’informations sur la quantité de neige en hiver, nous faisons des prévisions scientifiques du niveau d’eau dans les rivières d’Amérique du Nord pour les prochains mois du printemps à l’été. Ces prévisions peuvent donner une indication précoce de la probabilité d’événements de niveau d’eau élevé ou faible (e.g. inondations ou sécheresses)
Keywords
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regression |
snow |
seasonal streamflow forecasting |
probabilistic forecasting |
statistical forecasting |
streamflow predictability |
North America |
Citations
Section 2: Research Site
Temporal Extent
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Begin Date
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End Date
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1969-05-16
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2015-09-30
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Geographic Bounding Box
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West Boundary Longitude
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-170
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East Boundary Longitude
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-50
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North Boundary Latitude
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75
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South Boundary Latitude
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5
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Is Boundary Rectangular
Research Site Images
Research Site Description (if needed)
Case studies: Bow River at Banff, Kootenay River at Fort Steele, Fraser River at Shelley, Yukon River above White River, Stewart River at the Mouth, Grand River near Dundalk, Richelieu (Riviere) aux Rapides Fryers, Gatineau (Riviere) aux Rapides Ceizur. The long-term plan is to produce forecasts for the river basins across North America.
Basin
Subbasin
Specific Locations (if needed)
Research Site Location
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Display
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Section 3: Status and Provenance
Dataset Version
1
Dataset Creation Date
Status of data collection/production
Dataset Completion or Abandonment Date
Data Update Frequency
Creation Software
Primary Source of Data
Other Source of Data (if applicable)
Data Lineage (if applicable). Please include versions (e.g., input and forcing data, models, and coupling modules; instrument measurements; surveys; sample collections; etc.)
Section 4: Access and Downloads
Access to the Dataset
Terms of Use
Does the data have access restrictions?
Downloading and Characteristics of the Dataset
Download Links and Instructions
Total Size of all Dataset Files (GB)
File formats and online databases
Other Data Formats (if applicable)
List of Parameters and Variables
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snow water equivalent | kg/m2 | Daily during the snow season, with missing data | Collected by ECCC |
streamflow | m3/s | Hindcasts generated once a year | Linear and logistic regressions |
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