Tariq Deen, Altaf Arain, Olivier Champagne, Patricia Chow-Fraser, Dawn Martin-Hill (2022). Assessing the impact of climate change on the McKenzie Creek in the Great Lakes Region. Proceedings of the GWF Annual Open Science Meeting, May 16-18, 2022.

The McKenzie Creek is an intermediate size tributary within the southern portion of the Grand River in the Great Lakes Basin. The Creek is an important ecosystem service provider, supplying water for agricultural irrigation to the rural communities within the sub-watershed as well as the Six Nations of the Grand River reserve, the largest First Nations community by population in Canada. It is understood that lakes, river, and streams will be impacted by temperature increases and changes in precipitation patterns. Climate change projections for the McKenzie Creek sub-watershed indicate that the region will experience a 3-6°C increase in annual average temperature and increase in winter and early spring precipitation. This study explores the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the McKenzie Creek. The Coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow Model (GSFLOW) was used to simulate changes in streamflow within the sub-watershed from 1951 to 2099. GSFLOW was run using observed NRCANmet gridded data, and 11 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCM) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Findings suggest that in the future McKenzie Creek streamflow will be most affected during winter months with streamflow projected to increase while spring streamflow is expected to decrease and summer and fall streamflow will experience little to no change. These changes may lead to more winter and early spring flooding events, while summer low flows may result in drought events in this sub-watershed. Understanding of how climatic changes will impact the McKenzie Creek streamflow will provide water managers and users with important information to better plan of the future.

First Author: Tariq Deen, McMaster University
Additional Authors: Altaf Arain, McMaster University; Olivier Champagne, McMaster University; Patricia Chow-Fraser, McMaster University; Dawn Martin-Hill, McMaster University