https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1638927

Rokaya, P., Morales-Marín, L., Bonsal, B., Wheater, H., & Lindenschmidt, K. E. (2019). Climatic effects on ice phenology and ice-jam flooding of the Athabasca River in western Canada. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(11), 1265-1278. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1638927

In cold region environments, any alteration in the hydro-climatic regime can have profound impacts on river ice processes. This paper studies the implications of hydro-climatic trends on river ice processes, particularly on the freeze-up and ice-cover breakup along the Athabasca River in Fort McMurray in western Canada, which is an area very prone to ice-jam flooding. Using a stochastic approach in a one-dimensional hydrodynamic river ice model, a relationship between overbank flow and breakup discharge is established. Furthermore, the likelihood of ice-jam flooding in the future (2041–2070 period) is assessed by forcing a hydrological model with meteorological inputs from the Canadian regional climate model driven by two atmospheric–ocean general circulation climate models. Our results show that the probability of ice-jam flooding for the town of Fort McMurray in the future will be lower, but extreme ice-jam flood events are still probable.

https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1638927