https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13723

Razavi, S., Gober, P., Maier, H. R., Brouwer, R., & Wheater, H. (2020). Anthropocene flooding: Challenges for science and society. Hydrological Processes, 34(8), 1996-2000. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13723

Flood events have devastating impacts on communities around theworld, resulting in loss of life, property damage and severe disruptionto national economies and global trade. The frequency of such floodevents has increased significantly over the past few decades, to thepoint where flooding is now the most common type of natural hazard(Figure 1). The increasing severity of disastrous floods, particularly inregions where flow regimes are heavily engineered and regulated bymany dams, reservoir and other infrastructure, challenge currentscience-policy paradigms with respect to flood risk and underminepublic trust in flood risk management. We argue for new scientificparadigms and tools that capture the profound uncertainty and com-plexity surrounding climate, environment and societal futures. Alsoneeded is more robust public participation in flood management pro-cesses to raise awareness of trade-offs endemic to Anthropoceneflood management.We use riverine flood disasters in 2019 as examples to reveal aglobal narrative about more extreme events, societies being ill-prepared for them and the increasing role of human activity ininfluencing environmental change. This global flood year began withthe convergence of a very active monsoon and a slow-moving tropicallow-pressure system creating unprecedented rainfall for Australia'snorth Queensland coast in January and February. The City of Towns-ville, downstream of the Ross River dam, experienced severe flooding.The event resulted in three direct and two indirect fatalities and morethan $727 million in insured property losses. In March and April, threemassive rainfall events created flash flooding across 25 of Iran's31 provinces, where major rivers are managed by dams and reservoirs.This event caused 76 fatalities and more than $2 billion in damage.The combination of heavy rain and melting snowpack in the OttawaRiver basin, which is regulated by a series of reservoirs, producedrecord-breaking flood peaks in the Canadian cities of Ottawa and Gat-ineau and surrounding communities in April. Record-breaking springfloods also occurred across the Mississippi River and its tributaries, aheavily managed water system in the United States, causing fourcasualties and more than $12.5 billion in damage.Public discourse about these events centred on the efficacy ofinfrastructure design and management and the operational rules thatgovern day-to-day decision-making. Australians questioned whetherthe management of Ross River Dam contributed to flooding in Towns-ville when a large amount of water was released downstream (Smee,2019). Iranians in many of the affected areas wondered why largeexisting reservoirs did not protect them from flooding (ISNA, 2019).Reservoir operations also came under scrutiny in the Ottawa floods(CBC, 2019), in response to public concerns, and in the United States,where residents blamed the US Army Corps of Engineers for the mis-management of hundreds of reservoirs in the Mississippi River BasinReceived: 3 February 2020 Accepted: 5 February 2020DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13723This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium,provided the original work is properly cited.© 2020 The Authors.Hydrological Processespublished by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.1996Hydrological Processes.2020;34:1996–2000.wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/hyp(Fernandez & Schwartz, 2019). In the latter case, local residents werecritical of opening Keystone Dam and releasing a large amount ofwater into the Arkansas River, which had a particularly severe impacton the city of Sand Springs, Oklahoma.These real-time operational concerns arose from deeper, morefundamental issues associated with infrastructure planning anddesign, human settlement in the floodplain and perceptions of risk.Also, they raised serious concerns about the credibility of officialfloodplain risk maps. For example, in the Townsville and Ottawa floodevents, many affected properties were uninsured because they wereconsidered to be in flood-free zones, but now face the prospect ofbecoming uninsurable. In Iran, many of the flooded roads and proper-ties were built in the last few decades in areas now part of thefloodplain.As we explain below, the above issues arise because traditionalscientific solutions to flood risk management are unable to adapt tothe Anthropocene. We highlight two grand challenges facing scienceand society and outline the tools required to meet these challenges.The overarching goal is to inform decision-making related to land use,floodplain management, infrastructure design and operational proto-cols. The ability to capture the uncertainty and complexity of futureflood risk and society's exposure and vulnerability to such hazards isespecially relevant

https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13723