https://hdl.handle.net/10214/26627

Oja, M. 2021: Understanding Factors Influencing Agricultural Expansion in the Canadian Boreal Forest, University of Guelph (Berg)

Current agricultural expansion models are predicting that the boreal forest will become suitable for agriculture by the end of the century. As warmer climate regimes continue to move north, this brings the possibility for a northward expansion of crops into the boreal forest. This research used a Random Forest model to identify the most important bio-climatic variables that can describe agricultural expansion. Once the most important variables were found, 10 Random Forest models were utilized to spatially predict the probability of agricultural expansion throughout the study site in northern Alberta by 2100. For each model, the temperature variables were substituted with different Global Climate Model data, under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Temperature, elevation, current agriculture, wetlands and soil type were found to be the most important variables. All models predicted that agricultural expansion can be expected in the study area, and the majority predicted high expansion probabilities in the same region.

Masters, University of Guelph, Northern-Water-Futures

https://hdl.handle.net/10214/26627