https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csag.2024.100021

Liu, Jian; Lobb, David A.; Elliott, Jane A.; Macrae, Merrin L.; Baulch, Helen M.; Costa, Diogo (2024) The potential to reduce runoff generation through improving cropping and tillage practices in a sub-humid continental climate, Climate Smart Agriculture, Vol. 1, 100021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csag.2024.100021

Agricultural sustainability is threatened by both water deficit and water excess, especially at the presence of extreme meteorological events resulting from climate change. However, there has been lack of demonstrations on management options with long-term values for agricultural adaptation to runoff. Using 20 years of monitoring data (1993–2012) for two experimental fields in the Canadian Prairies as a case study, we quantified the effects of rainfall characteristics, crop type and biomass, and tillage on growing-season runoff generation using regression analyses and thereafter scenario comparisons. With growing-season gross rainfall ranging between 183 and 456mm, runoff responses varied between 0 and 59mm. Over the 20-year study period, 70%–74% of the growing-season runoff was generated by rainfall events >100mm. Compared to high-intensity tillage, long-term conservation tillage reduced both overall runoff and runoff in large events likely by improving water infiltration. Under both tillage methods, growing-season runoff significantly increased with increasing rainfall but decreased with increasing biomass (R2 range: 0.40–0.58; p range: 0.0007–0.02). At the event level, the rainfall-runoff relationship followed a piecewise regression model (Cd=0.82; p<0.0001; “breakpoint” rainfall event=105mm), in which runoff increased slowly before reaching the “breakpoint” but rose sharply afterwards. Due to a greater biomass, canola resulted in less runoff than wheat. Scenario analyses showed that increasing crop biomass by 50% under the current average rainfall conditions could reduce runoff by 81–86% in wheat and 100% in canola. The reduction may be attributed to the combined effects of crop on interception, evapotranspiration, and infiltration. In conclusion, although in a sub-humid continental climate like the Canadian Prairies there are generally low amounts of rainfall runoff, this study demonstrates significant runoff in some years, especially following large rainfall events. Runoff generation can be significantly reduced through improving cropping and tillage practices, and such effects on regional water retention should be further assessed by considering the past and future changes in climate and management.

Keywords: Canadian prairies; Climate change; Crop management; Regression analyses; Runoff; Scenario analysis; Tillage

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950409024000212