https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2422531

Burn, D. H., & Whitfield, P. H. (2025)Shifting cold regions streamflow regimes in North America affect flood frequency analysis, Taylor & Francis, Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol 70, Iss 1, pg 51–70, Issn 0262-6667, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2422531

Over-threshold flood events in 70 years of data from 202 reference hydrometric stations in Canada and the United States were separated into nival, mixed, and pluvial flood types. While Mann-Kendall trend tests showed few significant trends in flood magnitude, significant changes in flood type fraction were found over time, with annual mean temperature, and with annual precipitation. Nival events decreased in frequency over the 70-year period in 16% of sites, while mixed and pluvial events increased (5%, 12%). These changes indicate a shift from nival events towards more pluvial-dominated systems. Fewer significant changes in flood type fraction were found with analysis against four climate indices. Flood frequency analysis using a combined distribution approach with the three flood types resulted in larger magnitude design flow estimates (median increase of 20–30%) in comparison with the results from considering the data as a single population.

https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2422531