https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-026-01335-7

Gozini, H., Asadzadeh, M., Stadnyk, T. et al. Integrated water resources and hydropower generation modelling in a complex, cold-regions river-reservoir system. Sustain. Water Resour. Manag. 12, 20 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-026-01335-7

The Province of Manitoba is highly dependent on hydropower, with 97% of its electricity generated from the extensive network of large rivers and lakes. A complex system of 28 major lakes and 43 major control points regulates the flow to and through 16 hydropower stations in Manitoba, having a combined nominal capacity of 5926 MW. The expansive watershed (1.4 million km2 drainage area) feeding this system extends across the drought-prone Canadian Prairie and westward to the Rocky Mountains of Canada. This study introduces MB_HydroSim, an advanced, transboundary, and comprehensive simulation tool developed for Integrated Water Resources Management in Manitoba, focusing on hydropower generation. MB_HydroSim addresses the lack of a single tool that integrates the hydrological and operational complexities of an expansive cold-regions river-reservoir system, incorporating operational rules and ice impacts. MODSIM-DSS is used to develop MB_HydroSim, simulating daily water level, outflow, and hydropower generation. MB_HydroSim is evaluated against observed data from 1980 to 2017 using a spatially weighted average monthly KGE, demonstrating high accuracy in simulating water level (KGE = 0.54), outflow (KGE = 0.85), and hydropower generation (KGE = 0.94) across the system. Therefore, MB_HydroSim is a reliable tool that can be further utilized to analyze the future of hydropower generation in Manitoba, a region facing climate change and increasing electricity demands. Additionally, MB_HydroSim can be employed for sensitivity analysis, development of adaptation policies, and calculating the impact of ice-cover on hydropower generation. Collectively, these capabilities position MB_HydroSim as a fundamental tool for advancing Water-Energy Nexus assessments in the Province.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s40899-026-01335-7.pdf