https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2026.2634746

Abdelmoaty, H. M., Gavasso-Rita, Y. L., & Papalexiou, S. M. (2026). Changes in future precipitation of the Canadian catchments using 9-km downscaled CMIP6 simulations. Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue Canadienne Des Ressources Hydriques, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2026.2634746

Analyzing the impacts of climate change on precipitation patterns, encompassing daily, seasonal, and extreme values, at the catchment scale is critical for understanding regional hydrological changes and informing water resource management strategies. This study examines projected changes in precipitation patterns across eleven major Canadian catchments under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using 9-km downscaled CMIP6 simulations. By analyzing daily, seasonal, and extreme precipitation metrics, we provide insights into future precipitation dynamics. Results show significant increases in daily precipitation magnitudes, with northern and coastal regions experiencing the highest growth rates, particularly under SSP5-8.5. Seasonal analysis highlights pronounced precipitation growth during spring and winter, with coastal and mountainous regions exhibiting consistently high values. Extreme precipitation events, including annual maxima and the 95th and 99th percentiles, intensify under high-emission scenarios, with northern regions experiencing the largest relative increases. These findings underscore the critical need for region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate risks related to flooding, water resource management, and infrastructure resilience in a changing climate.

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