https://hdl.handle.net/10388/17907

Selby, D. (2026) The Future Prairie Pothole Region: Scenarios of Change, School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan https://hdl.handle.net/10388/17907

The Canadian Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) confronts significant social-ecological challenges, including declining rural population, climate stressors affecting agriculture, widespread wetland drainage driven by agricultural expansion and areas of escalating rural conflicts. To address these complex issues and foster shared understanding, this research focused on developing realistic social-ecological scenarios for the future of prairie landscapes in southern Saskatchewan's PPR. The methodology involved a three-round Delphi survey, engaging key knowledge holders with expertise in fields such as agriculture, hydrology, ecology, policy, economics, and social sciences to elicit insights and build consensus on potential future trajectories. These scenarios were specifically designed to understand preferred futures, and pathways to change by functioning as boundary objects to facilitate ongoing dialogue for conflict management and collective action among diverse stakeholders. The study resulted in the development of six possible future scenarios, framed by three drivers of change agricultural growth, regulatory environments, and climate change. The experts agreed that all of the scenarios were possible, though notably, only two scenarios, "Agriculture as Usual" and "Unmitigated Climate Change", achieved expert consensus (≥75% agreement) as credible and were also deemed the most probable. These credible scenarios are characterized by limited regulatory involvement and consistently predict outcomes such as continued rural population decline, biodiversity loss, wetland reduction, and increased flood risk. Eight key attributes were identified to define these future scenarios, including net farm income, land value, wetland extent, food security, flood risk, biodiversity, rural population, and social license to farm. By integrating structured frameworks like Multi-Attribute Utility Theory and “causal pathways” framing, this research translates theoretical scenarios into practical knowledge mobilization tools designed to bridge polarized perspectives and empower collaborative decision-making. These tools aim to expand collective mental models and uncover the common ground necessary for change.

https://harvest.usask.ca/bitstreams/a4d5b631-490a-49bd-9caa-0042f250b349/download