https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74772-9

Ma, Shizhou; Creed, Irena F.; Badiou, Pascal; Bansal, Sheel; Zhang, Zhen (2026) Temperate wetlands lose climate-cooling capacity under warming, Nature Communications, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74772-9

Temperate inland wetlands have long been viewed as climate regulators, with sustained CO? sequestration offsetting continuous CH? emissions over centennial–millennial timescales. However, the net climatic effect of these opposing fluxes remains uncertain under anthropogenic warming as they differ in both magnitude and atmospheric lifetime. We combine 19,000 CH? chamber measurements from 202 temperate inland wetlands with carbon burial rates from 16 dated sediment cores in North America’s Prairie Pothole Region to estimate greenhouse gas dynamics over two centuries. Here we show that CH? emissions rise by ~1.39?kg CH? ha?¹ yr?¹ over the historical period and are projected to approach 950?kg CH? ha?¹ yr?¹ under high-forcing scenarios by 2100, while CO? sequestration is expected to decline by ~0.3?kg CO? ha?¹ yr?¹, driving a shift toward persistent net CO?-equivalent source behaviour and a weakening of the long-term cooling effect that wetlands have provided under natural conditions.

10.1038/s41467-026-74772-9